Updated Sep. 29, 2022, at 4:39 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Guardians have a 2% chance of winning the World Series.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Guardians Guardians87-68	—	✓	✓
White Sox White Sox77-79	10.5	—	—
Twins Twins76-80	11.5	—	—
Tigers Tigers63-92	24.0	—	—
Royals Royals63-93	24.5	—	—

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
9/29Thursday, Sept. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1535	+7	+0	=1542	49%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1526	–3	+24	=1547	51%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1452	+37	–1	=1488	44%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1526	–20	+24	=1530	56%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1452	–15	+0	=1437	36%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1526	–10	+24	=1540	64%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Castillo	1452	–9	+0	=1443	31%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1526	+34	+24	=1584	69%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1452	+10	+0	=1462	34%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1526	+26	+24	=1576	66%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1452	–8	+0	=1444	36%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1526	–3	+24	=1547	64%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Heasley	1452	–13	+0	=1439	37%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1526	–20	+24	=1530	63%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Glasnow	1536	+23	+0	=1559	48%	1
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1525	+24	+24	=1573	52%	2
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1535	–6	–1	=1528	42%	6
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1527	+37	+23	=1587	58%	5
9/25Sunday, Sept. 252:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1525	–13	+0	=1512	55%	10
9/25Sunday, Sept. 252:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Ragans	1467	–15	+24	=1476	45%	4
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1523	–3	+0	=1520	55%	4
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Otto	1468	–6	+24	=1486	45%	2
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Morris	1522	–26	–3	=1493	47%	6
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1470	+23	+24	=1517	53%	3
9/22Thursday, Sept. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1520	+38	+0	=1558	53%	4
9/22Thursday, Sept. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cueto	1514	–1	+24	=1537	47%	2
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1518	+23	+0	=1541	47%	8
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1517	+18	+24	=1559	53%	2
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1516	–12	–2	=1502	39%	10
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1519	+35	+24	=1578	61%	7
9/19Monday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1506	+26	+0	=1532	49%	4
9/19Monday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1513	+1	+24	=1538	51%	11
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1504	+11	+0	=1515	51%	3
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Morris	1515	–30	+24	=1509	49%	0
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Winder	1505	–7	+0	=1498	50%	6
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1514	–36	+24	=1502	50%	7
9/17Saturday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1507	–15	+0	=1492	39%	1
9/17Saturday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1512	+37	+24	=1573	61%	5
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1508	+4	–3	=1509	43%	3
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1512	+24	+24	=1560	57%	4
9/15Thursday, Sept. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1515	+17	–2	=1530	55%	8
9/15Thursday, Sept. 151:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Gaddis	1514	–41	+24	=1497	45%	2
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1492	+8	+0	=1500	44%	3
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1513	+2	+24	=1539	56%	5
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Suarez	1493	–10	+0	=1483	47%	1
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Morris	1511	–29	+24	=1506	53%	3
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1494	–1	–3	=1490	49%	4
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1510	–35	+21	=1496	51%	5
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1509	+33	+0	=1542	52%	4
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Winder	1506	–3	+24	=1527	48%	1
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1507	+20	+0	=1527	50%	6
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:15 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1507	–4	+24	=1527	50%	4
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1506	+3	+0	=1509	47%	7
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bundy	1508	–1	+21	=1528	53%	6
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Morris	1507	–33	+0	=1474	48%	1
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1454	+7	+24	=1485	52%	2
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1506	+32	+0	=1538	60%	4
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1455	–10	+24	=1469	40%	1
9/5Monday, Sept. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1505	+22	–3	=1524	52%	6
9/5Monday, Sept. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1456	+30	+21	=1507	48%	5
9/4Sunday, Sept. 42:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1529	+5	+0	=1534	50%	6
9/4Sunday, Sept. 42:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1507	+6	+24	=1537	50%	3
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1528	+22	+0	=1550	57%	4
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Curry	1508	–32	+24	=1500	43%	0
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Castillo	1526	+33	–1	=1558	58%	6
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Morris	1510	–30	+24	=1504	42%	1
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1491	–10	+0	=1481	38%	3
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1512	+31	+24	=1567	62%	0
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1488	–5	+0	=1483	39%	4
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1515	+21	+24	=1560	61%	0
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Watkins	1490	–10	–1	=1479	42%	1
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1513	+2	+22	=1537	58%	5
8/28Sunday, Aug. 284:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1515	–11	+0	=1504	41%	0
8/28Sunday, Aug. 284:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1519	+21	+24	=1564	59%	4
8/27Saturday, Aug. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1513	–19	+0	=1494	38%	4
8/27Saturday, Aug. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Castillo	1520	+35	+24	=1579	62%	3
8/26Friday, Aug. 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1515	+30	+0	=1545	50%	2
8/26Friday, Aug. 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1519	+0	+24	=1543	50%	3
8/25Thursday, Aug. 254:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1516	+24	–3	=1537	51%	1
8/25Thursday, Aug. 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1518	–13	+24	=1529	49%	3
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1513	+0	+0	=1513	43%	7
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1523	+12	+24	=1559	57%	0
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1511	–10	+1	=1502	41%	3
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1525	+13	+26	=1564	59%	1
8/20Saturday, Aug. 206:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cueto	1516	+3	+0	=1519	43%	2
8/20Saturday, Aug. 206:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1513	+32	+24	=1569	57%	0
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1517	+5	–2	=1520	44%	2
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1511	+22	+26	=1559	56%	5
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Norris	1450	+0	+0	=1450	38%	4
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1510	+3	+24	=1537	62%	8
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hill	1449	–17	+0	=1432	37%	4
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1511	–12	+24	=1523	63%	3
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:45 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Garcia	1447	–7	+0	=1440	40%	7
8/15Monday, Aug. 156:45 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Curry	1513	–29	+24	=1508	60%	5
8/15Monday, Aug. 153:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hutchison	1448	–24	–2	=1422	36%	1
8/15Monday, Aug. 153:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1512	–15	+22	=1519	64%	4
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1509	+30	+0	=1539	43%	7
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1543	+22	+24	=1589	57%	2
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1510	+21	+0	=1531	47%	1
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	White	1542	–15	+24	=1551	53%	2
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1506	–4	–2	=1500	41%	8
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	–5	+27	=1568	59%	0
8/11Thursday, Aug. 111:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1506	–12	+0	=1494	55%	4
8/11Thursday, Aug. 111:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hill	1452	–17	+24	=1459	45%	3
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1505	–13	+0	=1492	56%	3
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hutchison	1453	–25	+24	=1452	44%	2
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1503	+30	+1	=1534	58%	5
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1454	–4	+26	=1476	42%	2
8/7Sunday, Aug. 712:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1565	–3	+0	=1562	53%	0
8/7Sunday, Aug. 712:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1502	+18	+24	=1544	47%	1
8/6Saturday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1567	–12	+0	=1555	55%	1
8/6Saturday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1501	–5	+24	=1520	45%	4
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1565	+2	+0	=1567	59%	9
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Gaddis	1502	–23	+24	=1503	41%	3
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1563	+33	–3	=1593	60%	6
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1504	–8	+24	=1520	40%	0
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 31:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Henry	1469	–15	+0	=1454	36%	4
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 31:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1503	+30	+24	=1557	64%	7
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1467	+24	+0	=1491	42%	6
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1505	+20	+24	=1549	58%	3
8/1Monday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Davies	1468	–13	–3	=1452	40%	5
8/1Monday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1504	–6	+21	=1519	60%	6
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Shaw	1502	–24	+0	=1478	34%	5
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1526	+42	+24	=1592	66%	3
7/30Saturday, July 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1504	–6	+0	=1498	43%	4
7/30Saturday, July 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Kluber	1524	+2	+24	=1550	57%	6
7/29Friday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1502	+26	–3	=1525	48%	4
7/29Friday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Springs	1526	–6	+21	=1541	52%	1
7/28Thursday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1503	+19	+0	=1522	48%	2
7/28Thursday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1519	–8	+24	=1535	52%	4
7/27Wednesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1502	–2	+0	=1500	42%	7
7/27Wednesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Eovaldi	1520	+9	+24	=1553	58%	6
7/26Tuesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Shaw	1499	–25	+0	=1474	42%	8
7/26Tuesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Winckowski	1523	–18	+24	=1529	58%	3
7/25Monday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1500	–7	–3	=1490	42%	1
7/25Monday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1522	+3	+24	=1549	58%	3
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1502	+31	+0	=1533	43%	3
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1523	+32	+24	=1579	57%	6
7/23Saturday, July 237:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1502	–34	+0	=1468	38%	4
7/23Saturday, July 237:15 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1522	+5	+24	=1551	62%	5
7/23Saturday, July 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1500	+16	+0	=1516	45%	7
7/23Saturday, July 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cueto	1524	+3	+24	=1551	55%	4
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1497	–3	+5	=1499	41%	8
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1527	+5	+29	=1561	59%	2
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Pineda	1458	+9	+0	=1467	43%	0
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1495	–6	+24	=1513	57%	10
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hutchison	1459	–26	+0	=1433	38%	5
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1494	–3	+24	=1515	62%	6
7/14Thursday, July 147:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1460	–35	–3	=1422	35%	0
7/14Thursday, July 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1493	+10	+24	=1527	65%	4
7/13Wednesday, July 137:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1518	+4	+0	=1522	52%	2
7/13Wednesday, July 137:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1494	–12	+24	=1506	48%	1
7/12Tuesday, July 127:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1516	+25	+0	=1541	57%	7
7/12Tuesday, July 127:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1496	–31	+24	=1489	43%	0
7/12Tuesday, July 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Martin	1517	–14	+0	=1503	44%	1
7/12Tuesday, July 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1494	+27	+24	=1545	56%	4
7/11Monday, July 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1519	+17	–2	=1534	53%	4
7/11Monday, July 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1492	–3	+21	=1510	47%	8
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1494	+0	+0	=1494	52%	1
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1447	+6	+24	=1477	48%	5
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1491	+9	+0	=1500	54%	13
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Heasley	1450	–1	+24	=1473	46%	1
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1492	–15	–1	=1476	49%	3
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1449	+13	+21	=1483	51%	4
7/6Wednesday, July 61:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1495	+31	+0	=1526	54%	2
7/6Wednesday, July 61:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Pineda	1460	+11	+24	=1495	46%	8
7/5Tuesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1498	+3	+0	=1501	57%	4
7/5Tuesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hutchison	1457	–32	+24	=1449	43%	11
7/4Monday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1499	–29	+0	=1470	53%	3
7/4Monday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Faedo	1456	–15	+24	=1465	47%	5
7/4Monday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1501	–1	–1	=1499	55%	1
7/4Monday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Hill	1454	–11	+24	=1467	45%	4
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Montgomery	1591	–8	+0	=1583	58%	0
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1499	+2	+24	=1525	42%	2
7/2Saturday, July 26:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1590	–2	+0	=1588	61%	6
7/2Saturday, July 26:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1501	–16	+24	=1509	39%	1
7/2Saturday, July 212:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1588	+16	–1	=1603	65%	13
7/2Saturday, July 212:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McCarty	1503	–35	+26	=1494	35%	4
6/30Thursday, June 301:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1522	–3	+0	=1519	45%	3
6/30Thursday, June 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1502	+30	+24	=1556	55%	5
6/29Wednesday, June 297:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Bundy	1523	–13	+0	=1510	48%	6
6/29Wednesday, June 297:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1501	+3	+24	=1528	52%	7
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Winder	1521	–6	+0	=1515	52%	6
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1503	–24	+24	=1503	48%	0
6/28Tuesday, June 281:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1522	–1	+0	=1521	50%	2
6/28Tuesday, June 281:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1502	–5	+24	=1521	50%	3
6/27Monday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1519	+23	–3	=1539	51%	11
6/27Monday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1505	+5	+24	=1534	49%	1
6/26Sunday, June 261:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Hill	1544	–14	+0	=1530	52%	8
6/26Sunday, June 261:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1507	–15	+24	=1516	48%	3
6/25Saturday, June 256:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Winckowski	1542	–30	+0	=1512	43%	4
6/25Saturday, June 256:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1509	+30	+24	=1563	57%	2
6/24Friday, June 247:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1541	+11	–1	=1551	53%	6
6/24Friday, June 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1511	+2	+21	=1534	47%	3
6/23Thursday, June 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1511	–9	+0	=1502	45%	0
6/23Thursday, June 231:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1516	–5	+24	=1535	55%	1
6/22Wednesday, June 227:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1510	+11	+0	=1521	43%	11
6/22Wednesday, June 227:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1518	+29	+24	=1571	57%	10
6/21Tuesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1509	–18	–2	=1489	40%	6
6/21Tuesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1519	+18	+23	=1560	60%	5
6/19Sunday, June 194:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1507	+30	+0	=1537	41%	5
6/19Sunday, June 194:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Heaney	1587	–14	+24	=1597	59%	3
6/18Saturday, June 187:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1509	+5	+0	=1514	37%	1
6/18Saturday, June 187:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1586	+0	+24	=1610	63%	7
6/17Friday, June 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1507	–12	–3	=1492	32%	2
6/17Friday, June 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1587	+11	+26	=1624	68%	1
6/16Thursday, June 163:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1506	+8	+0	=1514	56%	4
6/16Thursday, June 163:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Kuhl	1452	–5	+24	=1471	44%	2
6/15Wednesday, June 158:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1505	–26	+0	=1479	51%	7
6/15Wednesday, June 158:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1454	–7	+24	=1471	49%	5
6/14Tuesday, June 148:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1504	+31	–1	=1534	58%	4
6/14Tuesday, June 148:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1454	+3	+23	=1480	42%	3
6/12Sunday, June 1211:35 a.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1438	–4	+0	=1434	36%	3
6/12Sunday, June 1211:35 a.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1503	+5	+24	=1532	64%	6
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1436	+38	+0	=1474	43%	10
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1506	–10	+24	=1520	57%	5
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1436	–1	+0	=1435	36%	2
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1505	+9	+24	=1538	64%	3
6/9Thursday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1438	–7	–3	=1428	39%	4
6/9Thursday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1504	–24	+24	=1504	61%	8
6/8Wednesday, June 87:25 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1480	+11	+0	=1491	41%	0
6/8Wednesday, June 87:25 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1502	+29	+24	=1555	59%	4
6/7Tuesday, June 77:50 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Hearn	1479	–18	+0	=1461	44%	6
6/7Tuesday, June 77:50 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McCarty	1504	–27	+24	=1501	56%	3
6/7Tuesday, June 73:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1480	+8	–1	=1487	44%	3
6/7Tuesday, June 73:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1503	+5	+24	=1532	56%	6
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1502	–15	+0	=1487	56%	3
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1441	–17	+24	=1448	44%	2
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1503	+10	+0	=1513	54%	4
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1439	+22	+24	=1485	46%	5
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1502	+25	+0	=1527	60%	6
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1441	–6	+24	=1459	40%	3
6/1Wednesday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1451	+8	+0	=1459	45%	0
6/1Wednesday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1500	–30	+24	=1494	55%	4
5/31Tuesday, May 316:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1453	+2	+0	=1455	40%	3
5/31Tuesday, May 316:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1498	+6	+24	=1528	60%	8
5/30Monday, May 306:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Heasley	1455	–7	–3	=1445	42%	3
5/30Monday, May 306:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1497	–16	+23	=1504	58%	7
5/29Sunday, May 291:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1498	+11	+0	=1509	57%	1
5/29Sunday, May 291:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1458	–19	+24	=1463	43%	2
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1496	+25	+2	=1523	57%	8
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Faedo	1460	–11	+26	=1475	43%	1
5/26Thursday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1497	–23	–3	=1471	47%	3
5/26Thursday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1459	+15	+21	=1495	53%	4
5/25Wednesday, May 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1497	+7	+0	=1504	40%	1
5/25Wednesday, May 258:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1553	–2	+24	=1575	60%	2
5/24Tuesday, May 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–12	+0	=1487	38%	3
5/24Tuesday, May 248:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1552	–4	+24	=1572	62%	7
5/23Monday, May 238:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1496	+7	–3	=1500	40%	6
5/23Monday, May 238:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1555	–5	+24	=1574	60%	1
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Faedo	1457	–10	+2	=1449	36%	4
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1498	+24	+26	=1548	64%	2
5/20Friday, May 207:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1459	+12	–1	=1470	46%	1
5/20Friday, May 207:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1496	–21	+24	=1499	54%	6
5/19Thursday, May 191:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1478	+16	+2	=1496	45%	4
5/19Thursday, May 191:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1497	+5	+26	=1528	55%	2
5/17Tuesday, May 176:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1477	+6	+0	=1483	46%	5
5/17Tuesday, May 176:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–10	+23	=1512	54%	4
5/15Sunday, May 152:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1500	+8	+0	=1508	43%	1
5/15Sunday, May 152:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1517	+17	+24	=1558	57%	3
5/14Saturday, May 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1499	+26	+0	=1525	49%	3
5/14Saturday, May 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1518	–7	+24	=1535	51%	2
5/13Friday, May 138:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1500	–17	+3	=1486	40%	8
5/13Friday, May 138:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1516	+17	+24	=1557	60%	12
5/10Tuesday, May 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1501	+6	+0	=1507	40%	1
5/10Tuesday, May 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1532	+22	+24	=1578	60%	4
5/9Monday, May 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–11	–2	=1486	39%	12
5/9Monday, May 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1534	+6	+21	=1561	61%	9
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+25	+0	=1574	61%	3
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1498	–26	+24	=1496	39%	4
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1552	–15	+0	=1537	52%	2
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1495	+5	+24	=1524	48%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1550	+21	+2	=1573	52%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1497	+32	+26	=1555	48%	3
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1551	+11	–2	=1560	59%	5
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1496	–20	+24	=1500	41%	6
5/4Wednesday, May 45:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1541	–15	+0	=1526	50%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 45:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1495	+4	+24	=1523	50%	6
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1540	+26	+3	=1569	58%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1496	–9	+25	=1512	42%	4
5/1Sunday, May 14:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1494	–1	+0	=1493	51%	7
5/1Sunday, May 14:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1460	+0	+24	=1484	49%	3
4/30Saturday, April 304:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1493	+33	+0	=1526	57%	3
4/30Saturday, April 304:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1462	–8	+24	=1478	43%	1
4/29Friday, April 299:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1491	–15	–2	=1474	42%	9
4/29Friday, April 299:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1463	+38	+25	=1526	58%	8
4/28Thursday, April 284:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1493	+4	+0	=1497	46%	1
4/28Thursday, April 284:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1524	–24	+24	=1524	54%	4
4/27Wednesday, April 279:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1494	–3	+0	=1491	39%	5
4/27Wednesday, April 279:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1522	+25	+24	=1571	61%	9
4/26Tuesday, April 269:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1496	–2	+0	=1494	42%	1
4/26Tuesday, April 269:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1521	+2	+24	=1547	58%	4
4/25Monday, April 259:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1497	+33	–4	=1526	48%	0
4/25Monday, April 259:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Lorenzen	1519	–2	+24	=1541	52%	3
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1499	–13	+0	=1486	36%	2
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1553	+11	+24	=1588	64%	10
4/23Saturday, April 231:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1500	+2	+0	=1502	39%	4
4/23Saturday, April 231:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1553	+0	+24	=1577	61%	5
4/22Friday, April 227:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Morgan	1501	–18	–2	=1481	37%	1
4/22Friday, April 227:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1552	–2	+22	=1572	63%	4
4/21Thursday, April 211:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1539	+16	+0	=1555	55%	3
4/21Thursday, April 211:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–7	+24	=1516	45%	6
4/20Wednesday, April 205:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lambert	1540	–18	+0	=1522	51%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 205:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1498	–5	+24	=1517	49%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 202:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1543	–31	+3	=1515	44%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 202:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1495	+30	+29	=1554	56%	11
4/17Sunday, April 171:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1524	–10	+0	=1514	50%	8
4/17Sunday, April 171:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1498	–11	+24	=1511	50%	1
4/16Saturday, April 166:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1523	–6	+0	=1517	49%	4
4/16Saturday, April 166:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1499	+2	+24	=1525	51%	2
4/15Friday, April 157:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Rodon	1521	+16	–2	=1535	52%	4
4/15Friday, April 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1501	–5	+24	=1520	48%	1
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1499	–7	+0	=1492	47%	7
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1499	–12	+24	=1511	53%	3
4/12Tuesday, April 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1496	+30	–3	=1523	47%	10
4/12Tuesday, April 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1502	+19	+24	=1545	53%	5
4/11Monday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1495	–8	+0	=1487	48%	10
4/11Monday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1470	+7	+24	=1501	52%	7
4/10Sunday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1491	+2	+0	=1493	49%	17
4/10Sunday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1474	–1	+24	=1497	51%	3
4/9Saturday, April 94:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1491	–8	+2	=1485	48%	0
4/9Saturday, April 94:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1473	+0	+26	=1499	52%	1
4/7Thursday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1493	+30	–3	=1520	52%	1
4/7Thursday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1472	+8	+24	=1504	48%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.