Updated May 15, 2022, at 10:19 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Guardians have a 1% chance of winning the World Series.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Twins Twins20-15	—	57%	41%
White Sox White Sox16-17	3.0	55%	38%
Guardians Guardians16-17	3.0	31%	18%
Royals Royals12-20	6.5	3%	1%
Tigers Tigers12-23	8.0	2%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/17Tuesday, May 176:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1477	+6	+0	=1483	46%
5/17Tuesday, May 176:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–10	+23	=1512	54%
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1477	+17	+0	=1494	45%
5/18Wednesday, May 186:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1499	+5	+24	=1528	55%
5/20Friday, May 207:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	–1	=1459	44%
5/20Friday, May 207:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1499	–21	+26	=1504	56%
5/21Saturday, May 216:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1460	+10	+0	=1470	39%
5/21Saturday, May 216:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1499	+25	+24	=1548	61%
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	40%
5/22Sunday, May 221:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1499	+9	+24	=1532	60%
5/23Monday, May 238:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–10	–3	=1486	37%
5/23Monday, May 238:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Garcia	1554	–1	+24	=1577	63%
5/24Tuesday, May 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1499	+5	+0	=1504	40%
5/24Tuesday, May 248:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1554	–7	+24	=1571	60%
5/25Wednesday, May 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1499	–21	+0	=1478	30%
5/25Wednesday, May 258:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Verlander	1554	+46	+24	=1624	70%
5/26Thursday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1499	+25	–3	=1521	54%
5/26Thursday, May 267:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1460	+10	+21	=1491	46%
5/27Friday, May 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
5/27Friday, May 277:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
5/28Saturday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
5/29Sunday, May 291:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
5/29Sunday, May 291:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
5/30Monday, May 306:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	41%
5/30Monday, May 306:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+23	=1522	59%
5/31Tuesday, May 316:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
5/31Tuesday, May 316:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	56%
6/3Friday, June 37:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	44%
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	56%
6/4Saturday, June 44:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	44%
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	56%
6/5Sunday, June 51:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+24	=1456	44%
6/6Monday, June 67:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	–3	=1465	42%
6/6Monday, June 67:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+22	=1521	58%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	+0	=1468	42%
6/7Tuesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	58%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	+0	=1468	42%
6/8Wednesday, June 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	58%
6/9Thursday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	–3	=1450	40%
6/9Thursday, June 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	60%
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+0	=1453	40%
6/10Friday, June 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	60%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+0	=1453	40%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	60%
6/12Sunday, June 1211:35 a.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+0	=1453	40%
6/12Sunday, June 1211:35 a.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	60%
6/14Tuesday, June 148:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–1	=1498	52%
6/14Tuesday, June 148:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+23	=1484	48%
6/15Wednesday, June 158:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
6/15Wednesday, June 158:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
6/16Thursday, June 163:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
6/16Thursday, June 163:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
6/17Friday, June 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–3	=1496	34%
6/17Friday, June 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+26	=1613	66%
6/18Saturday, June 187:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	34%
6/18Saturday, June 187:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	66%
6/19Sunday, June 194:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	34%
6/19Sunday, June 194:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+24	=1611	66%
6/21Tuesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–2	=1497	44%
6/21Tuesday, June 217:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+23	=1542	56%
6/22Wednesday, June 227:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	44%
6/22Wednesday, June 227:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	56%
6/23Thursday, June 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	44%
6/23Thursday, June 231:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	56%
6/24Friday, June 247:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	–1	=1520	50%
6/24Friday, June 247:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+21	=1520	50%
6/25Saturday, June 256:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+0	=1521	50%
6/25Saturday, June 256:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	50%
6/26Sunday, June 261:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+0	=1521	50%
6/26Sunday, June 261:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	50%
6/27Monday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	49%
6/27Monday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
6/28Tuesday, June 281:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
6/28Tuesday, June 281:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
6/28Tuesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
6/29Wednesday, June 297:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
6/30Thursday, June 301:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
6/30Thursday, June 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
7/1Friday, July 17:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	–3	=1571	57%
7/1Friday, July 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	43%
7/2Saturday, July 26:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+0	=1574	57%
7/2Saturday, July 26:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	43%
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+0	=1574	57%
7/3Sunday, July 31:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	43%
7/4Monday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–1	=1498	52%
7/4Monday, July 41:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
7/5Tuesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
7/6Wednesday, July 61:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
7/6Wednesday, July 61:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–1	=1498	52%
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+21	=1482	48%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
7/11Monday, July 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	–2	=1525	51%
7/11Monday, July 117:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+21	=1520	49%
7/12Tuesday, July 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	51%
7/12Tuesday, July 121:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	49%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	51%
7/12Tuesday, July 127:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	49%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	51%
7/13Wednesday, July 137:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	49%
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	–1	=1459	41%
7/15Friday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+26	=1525	59%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	41%
7/16Saturday, July 164:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	41%
7/17Sunday, July 171:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+5	=1504	43%
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+29	=1556	57%
7/23Saturday, July 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
7/23Saturday, July 231:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	57%
7/23Saturday, July 237:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
7/23Saturday, July 237:15 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	57%
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	57%
7/25Monday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–3	=1496	43%
7/25Monday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	57%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
7/26Tuesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	57%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
7/27Wednesday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	57%
7/28Thursday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
7/28Thursday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	57%
7/29Friday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–3	=1496	42%
7/29Friday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+21	=1552	58%
7/30Saturday, July 301:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	42%
7/30Saturday, July 301:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	58%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	42%
7/31Sunday, July 311:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	58%
8/1Monday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	–3	=1461	42%
8/1Monday, Aug. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+21	=1520	58%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	42%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	58%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 31:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	42%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 31:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	58%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	–3	=1552	54%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 47:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	46%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+0	=1555	55%
8/5Friday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	45%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+0	=1555	55%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 66:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	45%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 712:05 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+0	=1555	55%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 712:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	45%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+1	=1500	52%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+26	=1486	48%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 111:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 111:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	48%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–2	=1497	40%
8/12Friday, Aug. 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	60%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	40%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 133:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	60%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	40%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 141:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	60%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	–2	=1458	41%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+22	=1521	59%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	41%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	41%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	–2	=1525	50%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+26	=1525	50%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 206:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	51%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 206:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	49%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 2112 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	51%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 2112 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	49%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–2	=1497	40%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+26	=1566	60%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	41%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+24	=1564	59%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 254:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–3	=1496	46%
8/25Thursday, Aug. 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+24	=1524	54%
8/26Friday, Aug. 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	46%
8/26Friday, Aug. 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+24	=1524	54%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	46%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 2710:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+24	=1524	54%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 284:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	46%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 284:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+24	=1524	54%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–1	=1431	37%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 306:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+22	=1521	63%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	37%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 316:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	63%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	37%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	63%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	–1	=1499	46%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	54%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+0	=1500	47%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	53%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 4	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+0	=1500	47%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 4	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	53%
9/5Monday, Sept. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–1	=1498	52%
9/5Monday, Sept. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+21	=1482	48%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	44%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+21	=1540	56%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	44%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	56%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	44%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	56%
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	–3	=1534	52%
9/12Monday, Sept. 126:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+21	=1520	48%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	52%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 136:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	48%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	52%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	48%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	49%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+26	=1525	51%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
9/19Monday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	49%
9/19Monday, Sept. 191:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	51%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–2	=1497	42%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	58%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	57%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	43%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 228:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	57%
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–3	=1496	51%
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	+24	=1492	49%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	51%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	+24	=1492	49%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 252:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	51%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 252:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	+24	=1492	49%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	–1	=1530	51%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+23	=1522	49%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	51%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 286:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	49%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	51%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 296:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	49%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–1	=1460	41%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/15Sunday, May 152:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1500	+8	+0	=1508	43%	1
5/15Sunday, May 152:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1517	+17	+24	=1558	57%	3
5/14Saturday, May 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1499	+26	+0	=1525	49%	3
5/14Saturday, May 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Smeltzer	1518	–7	+24	=1535	51%	2
5/13Friday, May 138:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1500	–17	+3	=1486	40%	8
5/13Friday, May 138:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Gray	1516	+17	+24	=1557	60%	12
5/10Tuesday, May 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1501	+6	+0	=1507	40%	1
5/10Tuesday, May 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1532	+22	+24	=1578	60%	4
5/9Monday, May 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–11	–2	=1486	39%	12
5/9Monday, May 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1534	+6	+21	=1561	61%	9
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1549	+25	+0	=1574	61%	3
5/8Sunday, May 81:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Pilkington	1498	–26	+24	=1496	39%	4
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Stripling	1552	–15	+0	=1537	52%	2
5/7Saturday, May 76:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1495	+5	+24	=1524	48%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1550	+21	+2	=1573	52%	8
5/7Saturday, May 72:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1497	+32	+26	=1555	48%	3
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1551	+11	–2	=1560	59%	5
5/5Thursday, May 56:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1496	–20	+24	=1500	41%	6
5/4Wednesday, May 45:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Gore	1541	–15	+0	=1526	50%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 45:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1495	+4	+24	=1523	50%	6
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Clevinger	1540	+26	+3	=1569	58%	5
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1496	–9	+25	=1512	42%	4
5/1Sunday, May 14:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1494	–1	+0	=1493	51%	7
5/1Sunday, May 14:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1460	+0	+24	=1484	49%	3
4/30Saturday, April 304:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1493	+33	+0	=1526	57%	3
4/30Saturday, April 304:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Irvin	1462	–8	+24	=1478	43%	1
4/29Friday, April 299:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1491	–15	–2	=1474	42%	9
4/29Friday, April 299:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Montas	1463	+38	+25	=1526	58%	8
4/28Thursday, April 284:07 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1493	+4	+0	=1497	46%	1
4/28Thursday, April 284:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Detmers	1524	–24	+24	=1524	54%	4
4/27Wednesday, April 279:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1494	–3	+0	=1491	39%	5
4/27Wednesday, April 279:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Ohtani	1522	+25	+24	=1571	61%	9
4/26Tuesday, April 269:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1496	–2	+0	=1494	42%	1
4/26Tuesday, April 269:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Sandoval	1521	+2	+24	=1547	58%	4
4/25Monday, April 259:38 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1497	+33	–4	=1526	48%	0
4/25Monday, April 259:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	Lorenzen	1519	–2	+24	=1541	52%	3
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1499	–13	+0	=1486	36%	2
4/24Sunday, April 241:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1553	+11	+24	=1588	64%	10
4/23Saturday, April 231:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1500	+2	+0	=1502	39%	4
4/23Saturday, April 231:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1553	+0	+24	=1577	61%	5
4/22Friday, April 227:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Morgan	1501	–18	–2	=1481	37%	1
4/22Friday, April 227:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Taillon	1552	–2	+22	=1572	63%	4
4/21Thursday, April 211:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1539	+16	+0	=1555	55%	3
4/21Thursday, April 211:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1499	–7	+24	=1516	45%	6
4/20Wednesday, April 205:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lambert	1540	–18	+0	=1522	51%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 205:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1498	–5	+24	=1517	49%	2
4/20Wednesday, April 202:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1543	–31	+3	=1515	44%	1
4/20Wednesday, April 202:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1495	+30	+29	=1554	56%	11
4/17Sunday, April 171:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1524	–10	+0	=1514	50%	8
4/17Sunday, April 171:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1498	–11	+24	=1511	50%	1
4/16Saturday, April 166:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1523	–6	+0	=1517	49%	4
4/16Saturday, April 166:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1499	+2	+24	=1525	51%	2
4/15Friday, April 157:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Rodon	1521	+16	–2	=1535	52%	4
4/15Friday, April 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1501	–5	+24	=1520	48%	1
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	McKenzie	1499	–7	+0	=1492	47%	7
4/13Wednesday, April 1312:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1499	–12	+24	=1511	53%	3
4/12Tuesday, April 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1496	+30	–3	=1523	47%	10
4/12Tuesday, April 124:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Mahle	1502	+19	+24	=1545	53%	5
4/11Monday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1495	–8	+0	=1487	48%	10
4/11Monday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1470	+7	+24	=1501	52%	7
4/10Sunday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1491	+2	+0	=1493	49%	17
4/10Sunday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1474	–1	+24	=1497	51%	3
4/9Saturday, April 94:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1491	–8	+2	=1485	48%	0
4/9Saturday, April 94:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1473	+0	+26	=1499	52%	1
4/7Thursday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1493	+30	–3	=1520	52%	1
4/7Thursday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1472	+8	+24	=1504	48%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.