Updated May 15, 2022, at 10:19 PM

2022 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Royals have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

AL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Twins Twins20-15	—	57%	41%
White Sox White Sox16-17	3.0	55%	38%
Guardians Guardians16-17	3.0	31%	18%
Royals Royals12-20	6.5	3%	1%
Tigers Tigers12-23	8.0	2%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/16Monday, May 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	–2	=1525	54%
5/16Monday, May 168:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1461	+12	+21	=1494	46%
5/17Tuesday, May 172:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1528	+16	+0	=1544	59%
5/17Tuesday, May 172:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Heasley	1461	–5	+24	=1480	41%
5/17Tuesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	56%
5/17Tuesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	44%
5/18Wednesday, May 188:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Velasquez	1528	–34	+0	=1494	49%
5/18Wednesday, May 188:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1461	+13	+24	=1498	51%
5/19Thursday, May 192:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1528	–37	+0	=1491	52%
5/19Thursday, May 192:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1461	–11	+24	=1474	48%
5/20Friday, May 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	–2	=1517	54%
5/20Friday, May 208:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1461	+2	+24	=1487	46%
5/21Saturday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1518	+20	+0	=1538	56%
5/21Saturday, May 217:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1461	+12	+24	=1497	44%
5/22Sunday, May 222:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1518	–9	+0	=1509	53%
5/22Sunday, May 222:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	47%
5/23Monday, May 239:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Heasley	1461	–5	–3	=1453	49%
5/23Monday, May 239:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Davies	1464	–26	+20	=1458	51%
5/24Tuesday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1461	+13	+0	=1474	44%
5/24Tuesday, May 249:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1464	+27	+24	=1515	56%
5/26Thursday, May 267:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1461	–11	–1	=1449	34%
5/26Thursday, May 267:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1518	+20	+24	=1562	66%
5/27Friday, May 278:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	39%
5/27Friday, May 278:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
5/28Saturday, May 282:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	39%
5/28Saturday, May 282:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
5/29Sunday, May 292:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	39%
5/29Sunday, May 292:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
5/30Monday, May 306:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	41%
5/30Monday, May 306:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+23	=1522	59%
5/31Tuesday, May 316:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
5/31Tuesday, May 316:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
6/1Wednesday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	–2	=1553	60%
6/3Friday, June 38:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+23	=1484	40%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+0	=1555	60%
6/4Saturday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	40%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+0	=1555	60%
6/5Sunday, June 52:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	40%
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	–3	=1541	58%
6/6Monday, June 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	58%
6/7Tuesday, June 78:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
6/8Wednesday, June 82:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	58%
6/8Wednesday, June 82:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
6/9Thursday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	–3	=1429	42%
6/9Thursday, June 98:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	58%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	42%
6/10Friday, June 108:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	58%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	42%
6/11Saturday, June 114:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	58%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1433	–1	+0	=1432	42%
6/12Sunday, June 122:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	58%
6/13Monday, June 139:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–4	=1457	37%
6/13Monday, June 139:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	63%
6/14Tuesday, June 149:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	38%
6/14Tuesday, June 149:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	62%
6/15Wednesday, June 153:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	38%
6/15Wednesday, June 153:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1524	+0	+24	=1548	62%
6/17Friday, June 179:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+1	=1462	49%
6/17Friday, June 179:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+20	=1473	51%
6/18Saturday, June 184:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	48%
6/18Saturday, June 184:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+24	=1477	52%
6/19Sunday, June 194:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	48%
6/19Sunday, June 194:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+24	=1477	52%
6/20Monday, June 209:38 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–2	=1459	36%
6/20Monday, June 209:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	+21	=1558	64%
6/21Tuesday, June 219:38 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
6/21Tuesday, June 219:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	+24	=1561	64%
6/22Wednesday, June 229:49 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	36%
6/22Wednesday, June 229:49 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	+24	=1561	64%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	–4	=1449	45%
6/24Friday, June 248:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+23	=1484	55%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+0	=1453	45%
6/25Saturday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	55%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1453	+0	+0	=1453	45%
6/26Sunday, June 262:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	55%
6/27Monday, June 278:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	–2	=1466	47%
6/27Monday, June 278:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	53%
6/28Tuesday, June 288:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	+0	=1468	47%
6/28Tuesday, June 288:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	53%
6/29Wednesday, June 292:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1468	+0	+0	=1468	47%
6/29Wednesday, June 292:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	53%
7/1Friday, July 17:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–1	=1460	47%
7/1Friday, July 17:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+22	=1482	53%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	47%
7/2Saturday, July 24:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	53%
7/3Sunday, July 312:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	47%
7/3Sunday, July 312:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	53%
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	33%
7/4Monday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+24	=1579	67%
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	34%
7/5Tuesday, July 58:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+24	=1579	66%
7/6Wednesday, July 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	34%
7/6Wednesday, July 68:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+24	=1579	66%
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	34%
7/7Thursday, July 72:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1554	+1	+24	=1579	66%
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–1	=1498	52%
7/8Friday, July 88:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+21	=1482	48%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
7/9Saturday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
7/10Sunday, July 102:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
7/11Monday, July 112:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	–2	=1458	46%
7/11Monday, July 112:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	54%
7/11Monday, July 118:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	46%
7/11Monday, July 118:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	54%
7/12Tuesday, July 128:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	46%
7/12Tuesday, July 128:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	54%
7/13Wednesday, July 132:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	46%
7/13Wednesday, July 132:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	54%
7/14Thursday, July 147:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	35%
7/14Thursday, July 147:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	65%
7/15Friday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	35%
7/15Friday, July 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	65%
7/16Saturday, July 163:07 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	35%
7/16Saturday, July 163:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	65%
7/17Sunday, July 1712:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	35%
7/17Sunday, July 1712:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+24	=1568	65%
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+4	=1535	56%
7/22Friday, July 228:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+28	=1489	44%
7/23Saturday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	56%
7/23Saturday, July 237:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	44%
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+0	=1531	56%
7/24Sunday, July 242:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	44%
7/25Monday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	–3	=1534	57%
7/25Monday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	43%
7/26Tuesday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	57%
7/26Tuesday, July 268:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	43%
7/27Wednesday, July 272:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1536	+1	+0	=1537	57%
7/27Wednesday, July 272:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	43%
7/28Thursday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	31%
7/28Thursday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+23	=1597	69%
7/29Friday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	31%
7/29Friday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+24	=1598	69%
7/30Saturday, July 302:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	31%
7/30Saturday, July 302:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+24	=1598	69%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	31%
7/31Sunday, July 311:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1573	+1	+24	=1598	69%
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	37%
8/1Monday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	63%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
8/2Tuesday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	63%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
8/3Wednesday, Aug. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	63%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	–3	=1518	55%
8/4Thursday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+22	=1483	45%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+0	=1521	55%
8/5Friday, Aug. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	45%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+0	=1521	55%
8/6Saturday, Aug. 67:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	45%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+0	=1521	55%
8/7Sunday, Aug. 72:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	45%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	56%
8/9Tuesday, Aug. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+26	=1487	44%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	56%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	44%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	56%
8/10Wednesday, Aug. 108:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	44%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+0	=1527	56%
8/11Thursday, Aug. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	44%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	–1	=1586	64%
8/12Friday, Aug. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	36%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	64%
8/13Saturday, Aug. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	36%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1587	+0	+0	=1587	64%
8/14Sunday, Aug. 142:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	36%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–2	=1459	39%
8/15Monday, Aug. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+20	=1539	61%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	39%
8/16Tuesday, Aug. 167:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	39%
8/17Wednesday, Aug. 171:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	37%
8/18Thursday, Aug. 187:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+21	=1552	63%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
8/19Friday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	63%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
8/20Saturday, Aug. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	63%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
8/21Sunday, Aug. 211:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1530	+1	+24	=1555	63%
8/22Monday, Aug. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	–3	=1524	56%
8/22Monday, Aug. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+21	=1482	44%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	–1	=1463	47%
8/23Tuesday, Aug. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	53%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1464	+0	+0	=1464	47%
8/24Wednesday, Aug. 248:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	53%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	–1	=1539	57%
8/26Friday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+26	=1487	43%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
8/27Saturday, Aug. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1538	+2	+0	=1540	58%
8/28Sunday, Aug. 282:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	42%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
8/30Tuesday, Aug. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+26	=1553	63%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
8/31Wednesday, Aug. 318:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	63%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 12:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	37%
9/1Thursday, Sept. 12:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1528	–1	+24	=1551	63%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–2	=1459	46%
9/2Friday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	54%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	47%
9/3Saturday, Sept. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	53%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	47%
9/4Sunday, Sept. 41:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	53%
9/5Monday, Sept. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	–1	=1498	52%
9/5Monday, Sept. 58:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+21	=1482	48%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
9/6Tuesday, Sept. 68:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+0	=1499	52%
9/7Wednesday, Sept. 78:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	–1	=1459	46%
9/9Friday, Sept. 98:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+26	=1487	54%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	46%
9/10Saturday, Sept. 107:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	54%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+0	=1460	46%
9/11Sunday, Sept. 112:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	54%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	38%
9/13Tuesday, Sept. 137:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+26	=1545	62%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	39%
9/14Wednesday, Sept. 147:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	39%
9/15Thursday, Sept. 157:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+24	=1543	61%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–3	=1458	38%
9/16Friday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+26	=1547	62%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	38%
9/17Saturday, Sept. 174:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	62%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	38%
9/18Sunday, Sept. 181:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1521	+0	+24	=1545	62%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	–3	=1516	55%
9/20Tuesday, Sept. 208:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+23	=1484	45%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	55%
9/21Wednesday, Sept. 218:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	45%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1518	+1	+0	=1519	55%
9/22Thursday, Sept. 222:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	45%
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	–4	=1496	52%
9/23Friday, Sept. 238:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+0	=1500	52%
9/24Saturday, Sept. 247:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 252:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1498	+2	+0	=1500	52%
9/25Sunday, Sept. 252:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+24	=1485	48%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–1	=1460	47%
9/27Tuesday, Sept. 276:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	53%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 286:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	47%
9/28Wednesday, Sept. 286:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	53%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	47%
9/29Thursday, Sept. 291:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1460	+0	+24	=1484	53%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	–1	=1460	41%
9/30Friday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/1Saturday, Oct. 16:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/2Sunday, Oct. 21:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/3Monday, Oct. 36:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/4Tuesday, Oct. 46:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	KCRoyals	—	1461	+0	+0	=1461	41%
10/5Wednesday, Oct. 5	CLEGuardians	—	1499	+0	+24	=1523	59%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
5/15Sunday, May 153:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1460	–2	+0	=1458	46%	8
5/15Sunday, May 153:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1462	+1	+24	=1487	54%	7
5/14Saturday, May 148:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1462	–5	+0	=1457	46%	4
5/14Saturday, May 148:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1460	+4	+24	=1488	54%	10
5/13Friday, May 138:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1460	+15	–3	=1472	47%	14
5/13Friday, May 138:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1462	+10	+23	=1495	53%	10
5/12Thursday, May 128:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Heasley	1461	–5	+0	=1456	46%	1
5/12Thursday, May 128:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Hearn	1469	–12	+24	=1481	54%	3
5/11Wednesday, May 118:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Speier	1458	–5	+0	=1453	44%	8
5/11Wednesday, May 118:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Bush (open)	1472	+0	+24	=1496	56%	2
5/10Tuesday, May 108:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1460	+15	–3	=1472	47%	4
5/10Tuesday, May 108:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1471	+2	+21	=1494	53%	6
5/9Monday, May 912:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1462	–3	+0	=1459	49%	1
5/9Monday, May 912:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1433	+5	+24	=1462	51%	6
5/8Sunday, May 85:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1463	–5	+0	=1458	50%	2
5/8Sunday, May 85:45 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Zimmermann	1432	+2	+24	=1458	50%	4
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1462	+14	+4	=1480	52%	6
5/8Sunday, May 81:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Lyles	1433	+0	+29	=1462	48%	4
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1504	+18	+0	=1522	57%	10
5/4Wednesday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1465	–13	+24	=1476	43%	0
5/3Tuesday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1506	+4	–2	=1508	52%	1
5/3Tuesday, May 38:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1462	+11	+22	=1495	48%	7
5/2Monday, May 21:15 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1463	+11	–2	=1472	43%	0
5/2Monday, May 21:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1505	–6	+24	=1523	57%	1
5/1Sunday, May 12:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1562	+4	+0	=1566	62%	6
5/1Sunday, May 12:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1464	–5	+24	=1483	38%	4
4/30Saturday, April 307:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1561	+15	+0	=1576	62%	3
4/30Saturday, April 307:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1465	–2	+24	=1487	38%	0
4/29Friday, April 298:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1558	+2	–3	=1557	61%	12
4/29Friday, April 298:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1467	–12	+22	=1477	39%	2
4/28Thursday, April 282:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1465	+7	+0	=1472	37%	5
4/28Thursday, April 282:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1530	+7	+24	=1561	63%	2
4/27Wednesday, April 272:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1466	+11	+0	=1477	38%	3
4/27Wednesday, April 272:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Cease	1529	+13	+24	=1566	62%	7
4/26Tuesday, April 267:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1463	–11	–2	=1450	41%	6
4/26Tuesday, April 267:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Keuchel	1532	–39	+24	=1517	59%	0
4/24Sunday, April 244:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1464	+2	+0	=1466	36%	4
4/24Sunday, April 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Ray	1508	+31	+24	=1563	64%	5
4/23Saturday, April 239:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1466	–5	+0	=1461	42%	7
4/23Saturday, April 239:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Brash	1506	–9	+24	=1521	58%	13
4/22Friday, April 229:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1467	+9	–4	=1472	42%	1
4/22Friday, April 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Flexen	1505	–2	+24	=1527	58%	4
4/21Thursday, April 212:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ryan	1509	+7	+0	=1516	52%	1
4/21Thursday, April 212:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1468	+10	+24	=1502	48%	0
4/20Wednesday, April 208:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Paddack	1511	–11	+0	=1500	54%	0
4/20Wednesday, April 208:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1467	–16	+24	=1475	46%	2
4/19Tuesday, April 198:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Archer	1512	+1	–3	=1510	52%	3
4/19Tuesday, April 198:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1466	+3	+29	=1498	48%	4
4/16Saturday, April 164:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Manning	1470	–15	+0	=1455	46%	1
4/16Saturday, April 164:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1465	–5	+24	=1484	54%	3
4/15Friday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Skubal	1468	–7	+0	=1461	45%	2
4/15Friday, April 158:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1466	+8	+24	=1498	55%	1
4/14Thursday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Mize	1467	+1	–3	=1465	45%	4
4/14Thursday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1467	+11	+24	=1502	55%	2
4/12Tuesday, April 127:45 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Lynch	1468	–11	–2	=1455	39%	5
4/12Tuesday, April 127:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Hudson	1502	+4	+26	=1532	61%	6
4/11Monday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1495	–8	+0	=1487	48%	10
4/11Monday, April 112:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1470	+7	+24	=1501	52%	7
4/10Sunday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1491	+2	+0	=1493	49%	17
4/10Sunday, April 102:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1474	–1	+24	=1497	51%	3
4/9Saturday, April 94:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Plesac	1491	–8	+2	=1485	48%	0
4/9Saturday, April 94:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1473	+0	+26	=1499	52%	1
4/7Thursday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1493	+30	–3	=1520	52%	1
4/7Thursday, April 74:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1472	+8	+24	=1504	48%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.