2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Philadelphia 76ers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Joel Embiid | J. Embiid | 39 | SAME | +3.1 | +4.4 | ||||||||
| James Harden | J. Harden | 41 | +2 | +4.9 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Tyrese Maxey* | T. Maxey* | 39 | SAME | +1.0 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Tobias Harris | T. Harris | 38 | SAME | +0.7 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Danny Green | D. Green | 0 | -31 | 0.0 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Georges Niang | G. Niang | 15 | +4 | +0.1 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Matisse Thybulle | M. Thybulle | 24 | +7 | -1.8 | +3.9 | ||||||||
| Shake Milton | S. Milton | 21 | +5 | -0.4 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Paul Reed | P. Reed | 10 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Furkan Korkmaz | F. Korkmaz | 9 | +9 | -0.3 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Joe | I. Joe | 0 | SAME | -0.5 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Paul Millsap | P. Millsap | 1 | +1 | -1.5 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| DeAndre Jordan | D. Jordan | 2 | +2 | -3.4 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Myles Powell | M. Powell | 0 | SAME | +0.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Charles Bassey | C. Bassey | 1 | +1 | -1.8 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Charles Brown Jr. | C. Brown Jr. | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Jaden Springer | J. Springer | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.9 | +1.9 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.8 | +1.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-103 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 58 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1682 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1608). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1608). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1654 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1664 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Joel Embiid | J. Embiid | 39 | +3.1 | +4.4 | |||||
| James Harden | J. Harden | 39 | +4.9 | -0.9 | |||||
| Tyrese Maxey* | T. Maxey* | 39 | +1.0 | -1.5 | |||||
| Tobias Harris | T. Harris | 38 | +0.7 | -0.7 | |||||
| Danny Green* | D. Green* | 31 | 0.0 | +1.8 | |||||
| Georges Niang | G. Niang | 11 | +0.1 | -1.2 | |||||
| Matisse Thybulle | M. Thybulle | 17 | -1.8 | +3.9 | |||||
| Shake Milton | S. Milton | 16 | -0.4 | -1.2 | |||||
| Paul Reed | P. Reed | 10 | -1.1 | +0.2 | |||||
| Furkan Korkmaz | F. Korkmaz | 0 | -0.3 | -0.3 | |||||
| Isaiah Joe | I. Joe | 0 | -0.5 | +0.6 | |||||
| Paul Millsap | P. Millsap | 0 | -1.5 | +1.1 | |||||
| DeAndre Jordan | D. Jordan | 0 | -3.4 | -1.1 | |||||
| Myles Powell | M. Powell | 0 | +0.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Charles Bassey | C. Bassey | 0 | -1.8 | +0.3 | |||||
| Charles Brown Jr. | C. Brown Jr. | 0 | -1.2 | -0.2 | |||||
| Jaden Springer | J. Springer | 0 | -1.7 | -1.4 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.3 | +2.8 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +6.0 | +2.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-103 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1705 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1608). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1608). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1664 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1677 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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