2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Utah Jazz have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Donovan Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 38 | SAME | +5.2 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| Rudy Gobert | R. Gobert | 33 | SAME | -0.3 | +6.0 | ||||||||
| Mike Conley | M. Conley | 29 | SAME | +2.5 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Bojan Bogdanovic* | B. Bogdanovic* | 35 | SAME | +0.3 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Royce O'Neale | R. O'Neale | 34 | SAME | +0.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 27 | SAME | +2.3 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Danuel House Jr. | D. House Jr. | 18 | SAME | -2.0 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Hassan Whiteside | H. Whiteside | 15 | SAME | -0.5 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Juancho Hernangomez | J. Hernangomez | 5 | SAME | -0.7 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Eric Paschall | E. Paschall | 5 | SAME | -1.0 | -2.2 | ||||||||
| Trent Forrest | T. Forrest | 1 | SAME | -0.6 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Rudy Gay | R. Gay | 0 | SAME | -0.7 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Udoka Azubuike | U. Azubuike | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | N. Alexander-Walker | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Jared Butler | J. Butler | 0 | SAME | -1.0 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Xavier Sneed | X. Sneed | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.4 | +1.9 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.2 | +1.7 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-105 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 57 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1666 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1567). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1567). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1627 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1636 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Donovan Mitchell | D. Mitchell | 38 | +5.2 | -2.3 | |||||
| Rudy Gobert | R. Gobert | 33 | -0.3 | +6.0 | |||||
| Mike Conley | M. Conley | 29 | +2.5 | +1.2 | |||||
| Bojan Bogdanovic* | B. Bogdanovic* | 35 | +0.3 | -2.1 | |||||
| Royce O'Neale | R. O'Neale | 34 | +0.1 | +1.4 | |||||
| Jordan Clarkson | J. Clarkson | 27 | +2.3 | -0.9 | |||||
| Danuel House Jr. | D. House Jr. | 18 | -2.0 | -0.4 | |||||
| Hassan Whiteside | H. Whiteside | 15 | -0.5 | +1.8 | |||||
| Juancho Hernangomez | J. Hernangomez | 5 | -0.7 | -1.1 | |||||
| Eric Paschall | E. Paschall | 5 | -1.0 | -2.2 | |||||
| Trent Forrest | T. Forrest | 1 | -0.6 | -0.5 | |||||
| Rudy Gay | R. Gay | 0 | -0.7 | +0.8 | |||||
| Udoka Azubuike | U. Azubuike | 0 | -2.1 | +0.9 | |||||
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | N. Alexander-Walker | 0 | -0.9 | -0.5 | |||||
| Jared Butler | J. Butler | 0 | -1.0 | -0.3 | |||||
| Xavier Sneed | X. Sneed | 0 | -1.5 | -0.6 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.4 | +1.9 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.2 | +1.7 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-105 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 57 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1666 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1567). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1567). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1627 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1636 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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