The Sacramento Kings have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
De'Aaron Fox	D. Fox		36	SAME			+2.4	-2.1
Domantas Sabonis	D. Sabonis		36	SAME			+1.0	+1.8
Harrison Barnes	H. Barnes		33	SAME			+0.6	-1.3
Justin Holiday	J. Holiday		27	SAME			-0.9	-0.5
Davion Mitchell	D. Mitchell		12	SAME			-1.5	+0.2
Donte DiVincenzo	D. DiVincenzo		25	SAME			-0.4	+1.0
Richaun Holmes	R. Holmes		0	-22			-1.2	+0.4
Trey Lyles	T. Lyles		17	SAME			-1.0	-1.3
Chimezie Metu	C. Metu		11	+6			-2.7	-0.5
Jeremy Lamb	J. Lamb		10	+3			+0.7	-0.1
Maurice Harkless	M. Harkless		11	+3			-2.4	-0.1
Terence Davis	T. Davis		11	+3			+1.2	-0.5
Damian Jones	D. Jones		11	+7			-1.9	-1.1
Alex Len	A. Len		0	SAME			-3.0	+0.1
Josh Jackson	J. Jackson		0	SAME			-1.7	+0.2
Neemias Queta	N. Queta		0	SAME			-2.6	+0.3
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+0.3	-1.6
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			108-110
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			38
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1473
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1383). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1383). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1462
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1465

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
De'Aaron Fox	D. Fox		36		+2.4	-2.1
Domantas Sabonis	D. Sabonis		36		+1.0	+1.8
Harrison Barnes	H. Barnes		33		+0.6	-1.3
Justin Holiday	J. Holiday		27		-0.9	-0.5
Davion Mitchell	D. Mitchell		12		-1.5	+0.2
Donte DiVincenzo	D. DiVincenzo		25		-0.4	+1.0
Richaun Holmes	R. Holmes		22		-1.2	+0.4
Trey Lyles	T. Lyles		17		-1.0	-1.3
Chimezie Metu	C. Metu		5		-2.7	-0.5
Jeremy Lamb	J. Lamb		7		+0.7	-0.1
Maurice Harkless	M. Harkless		8		-2.4	-0.1
Terence Davis	T. Davis		8		+1.2	-0.5
Damian Jones	D. Jones		4		-1.9	-1.1
Alex Len	A. Len		0		-3.0	+0.1
Josh Jackson	J. Jackson		0		-1.7	+0.2
Neemias Queta	N. Queta		0		-2.6	+0.3
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+0.4	-1.2
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			108-109
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			39
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1485
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1383). The weight given to Elo — 7% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1383). The weight given to Elo — 7% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1478
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1481

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2021-22 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

The Sacramento Kings have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

Comments