2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The New York Knicks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Julius Randle | J. Randle | 39 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| RJ Barrett | R. Barrett | 0 | -29 | -0.2 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Mitchell Robinson | M. Robinson | 25 | SAME | -0.5 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Evan Fournier* | E. Fournier* | 34 | +5 | +0.7 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Alec Burks* | A. Burks* | 34 | +8 | +0.9 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 23 | +2 | +1.3 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 0 | -12 | -1.7 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Immanuel Quickley | I. Quickley | 24 | +2 | +1.9 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Obi Toppin | O. Toppin | 10 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Kemba Walker | K. Walker | 0 | -5 | +1.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Nerlens Noel | N. Noel | 11 | SAME | -2.6 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Taj Gibson | T. Gibson | 11 | SAME | -1.9 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Quentin Grimes | Q. Grimes | 13 | +13 | -1.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Jericho Sims | J. Sims | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Miles McBride | M. McBride | 4 | +4 | -1.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Ryan Arcidiacono | R. Arcidiacono | 4 | +4 | -0.1 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Feron Hunt | F. Hunt | 8 | +8 | -2.9 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.6 | +2.0 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -1.0 | +1.6 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 104-104 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 43 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1520 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1526). The weight given to Elo — 11% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1526). The weight given to Elo — 11% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1520 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1524 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Julius Randle | J. Randle | 39 | -1.5 | -0.2 | |||||
| RJ Barrett | R. Barrett | 29 | -0.2 | -0.7 | |||||
| Mitchell Robinson | M. Robinson | 25 | -0.5 | +2.3 | |||||
| Evan Fournier | E. Fournier | 29 | +0.7 | -1.4 | |||||
| Alec Burks | A. Burks | 26 | +0.9 | +0.6 | |||||
| Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 21 | +1.3 | +0.8 | |||||
| Cam Reddish | C. Reddish | 12 | -1.7 | -0.3 | |||||
| Immanuel Quickley | I. Quickley | 22 | +1.9 | +0.7 | |||||
| Obi Toppin | O. Toppin | 10 | -0.7 | -0.2 | |||||
| Kemba Walker | K. Walker | 5 | +1.7 | -0.1 | |||||
| Nerlens Noel | N. Noel | 11 | -2.6 | +1.9 | |||||
| Taj Gibson | T. Gibson | 11 | -1.9 | +1.5 | |||||
| Quentin Grimes | Q. Grimes | 0 | -1.0 | +0.4 | |||||
| Jericho Sims | J. Sims | 0 | -2.5 | +0.7 | |||||
| Miles McBride | M. McBride | 0 | -1.1 | +0.3 | |||||
| Ryan Arcidiacono | R. Arcidiacono | 0 | -0.1 | +0.1 | |||||
| Feron Hunt | F. Hunt | 0 | -2.9 | -0.3 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.6 | +1.3 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-105 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 43 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1521 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1526). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1526). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1521 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1525 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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