2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Los Angeles Lakers have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| LeBron James | L. James | 0 | -41 | +5.2 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Anthony Davis* | A. Davis* | 45 | +5 | +1.1 | +3.2 | ||||||||
| Russell Westbrook | R. Westbrook | 36 | +2 | -0.8 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Kendrick Nunn | K. Nunn | 0 | -19 | +0.5 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Malik Monk | M. Monk | 27 | +8 | +1.5 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Carmelo Anthony | C. Anthony | 25 | +1 | -0.4 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Talen Horton-Tucker | T. Horton-Tucker | 23 | +8 | -1.9 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Avery Bradley | A. Bradley | 21 | +6 | -2.4 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Stanley Johnson | S. Johnson | 15 | +6 | -1.4 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Trevor Ariza | T. Ariza | 14 | +5 | -2.9 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Wayne Ellington | W. Ellington | 14 | +14 | -0.5 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Dwight Howard | D. Howard | 16 | +1 | -1.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Kent Bazemore | K. Bazemore | 0 | SAME | -2.7 | +2.4 | ||||||||
| Wenyen Gabriel | W. Gabriel | 0 | SAME | -0.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| D.J. Augustin | D. Augustin | 4 | +4 | -0.7 | -3.9 | ||||||||
| Austin Reaves | A. Reaves | 0 | SAME | -0.2 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Mason Jones | M. Jones | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| Mac McClung | M. McClung | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.4 | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -2.9 | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 30 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1392 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1421). The weight given to Elo — 5% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1421). The weight given to Elo — 5% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1394 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1408 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| LeBron James | L. James | 41 | +5.2 | +0.5 | |||||
| Anthony Davis* | A. Davis* | 40 | +1.1 | +3.2 | |||||
| Russell Westbrook | R. Westbrook | 34 | -0.8 | -1.9 | |||||
| Kendrick Nunn | K. Nunn | 19 | +0.5 | -0.9 | |||||
| Malik Monk | M. Monk | 19 | +1.5 | -1.8 | |||||
| Carmelo Anthony | C. Anthony | 24 | -0.4 | -2.4 | |||||
| Talen Horton-Tucker | T. Horton-Tucker | 15 | -1.9 | +0.3 | |||||
| Avery Bradley | A. Bradley | 15 | -2.4 | -0.8 | |||||
| Stanley Johnson | S. Johnson | 9 | -1.4 | 0.0 | |||||
| Trevor Ariza | T. Ariza | 9 | -2.9 | +0.7 | |||||
| Wayne Ellington | W. Ellington | 0 | -0.5 | -1.3 | |||||
| Dwight Howard | D. Howard | 15 | -1.1 | -0.3 | |||||
| Kent Bazemore | K. Bazemore | 0 | -2.7 | +2.4 | |||||
| Wenyen Gabriel | W. Gabriel | 0 | -0.8 | -0.3 | |||||
| D.J. Augustin | D. Augustin | 0 | -0.7 | -3.9 | |||||
| Austin Reaves | A. Reaves | 0 | -0.2 | +1.0 | |||||
| Mason Jones | M. Jones | 0 | -0.4 | -2.3 | |||||
| Mac McClung | M. McClung | 0 | -2.0 | -0.5 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +2.5 | -0.6 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-109 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 46 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1549 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1421). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1421). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1549 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1576 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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