2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Orlando Magic have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Cole Anthony | C. Anthony | 0 | -28 | -0.4 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Franz Wagner | F. Wagner | 0 | -30 | +0.3 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Wendell Carter Jr. | W. Carter Jr. | 29 | SAME | -1.2 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Gary Harris* | G. Harris* | 32 | +6 | -1.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Jalen Suggs* | J. Suggs* | 31 | +3 | -3.4 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Isaac | J. Isaac | 0 | -23 | -0.9 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Mo Bamba | M. Bamba | 23 | +1 | -1.9 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Chuma Okeke | C. Okeke | 26 | +2 | -2.6 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Terrence Ross | T. Ross | 23 | +3 | -0.8 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| R.J. Hampton | R. Hampton | 20 | +17 | -2.7 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| Markelle Fultz | M. Fultz | 20 | +16 | 0.0 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Robin Lopez | R. Lopez | 11 | +10 | -3.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Moritz Wagner | M. Wagner | 14 | +12 | -0.9 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Admiral Schofield | A. Schofield | 3 | +3 | -1.7 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Ignas Brazdeikis | I. Brazdeikis | 4 | +4 | -1.2 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Bol Bol | B. Bol | 0 | SAME | -3.0 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Devin Cannady | D. Cannady | 4 | +4 | -1.0 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -7.9 | -0.3 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -8.1 | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 100-108 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 21 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1293 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 10% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 10% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1296 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1298 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Cole Anthony | C. Anthony | 28 | -0.4 | -1.9 | |||||
| Franz Wagner | F. Wagner | 30 | +0.3 | +0.7 | |||||
| Wendell Carter Jr. | W. Carter Jr. | 29 | -1.2 | +1.4 | |||||
| Gary Harris | G. Harris | 26 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Jalen Suggs | J. Suggs | 28 | -3.4 | +1.9 | |||||
| Jonathan Isaac | J. Isaac | 23 | -0.9 | +2.0 | |||||
| Mo Bamba | M. Bamba | 22 | -1.9 | +0.4 | |||||
| Chuma Okeke | C. Okeke | 24 | -2.6 | +0.9 | |||||
| Terrence Ross | T. Ross | 20 | -0.8 | -2.1 | |||||
| R.J. Hampton | R. Hampton | 3 | -2.7 | -2.3 | |||||
| Markelle Fultz | M. Fultz | 4 | 0.0 | -1.4 | |||||
| Robin Lopez | R. Lopez | 1 | -3.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Moritz Wagner | M. Wagner | 2 | -0.9 | +0.1 | |||||
| Admiral Schofield | A. Schofield | 0 | -1.7 | -1.1 | |||||
| Ignas Brazdeikis | I. Brazdeikis | 0 | -1.2 | -1.9 | |||||
| Bol Bol | B. Bol | 0 | -3.0 | -0.1 | |||||
| Devin Cannady | D. Cannady | 0 | -1.0 | -1.0 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -6.0 | +1.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 101-106 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 30 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1393 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1393 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1394 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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