2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Brooklyn Nets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Kevin Durant* | K. Durant* | 41 | +4 | +4.2 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Kyrie Irving | K. Irving | 38 | SAME | +5.2 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Ben Simmons* | B. Simmons* | 41 | +4 | +1.1 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Joe Harris | J. Harris | 0 | -30 | -0.2 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Bruce Brown | B. Brown | 27 | +3 | +0.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Seth Curry | S. Curry | 27 | +4 | +1.6 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Nicolas Claxton | N. Claxton | 22 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.3 | ||||||||
| Andre Drummond | A. Drummond | 16 | SAME | -0.9 | +2.4 | ||||||||
| Goran Dragic | G. Dragic | 9 | +2 | -0.1 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Patty Mills | P. Mills | 9 | +2 | +0.1 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Blake Griffin | B. Griffin | 10 | +10 | -0.4 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Kessler Edwards | K. Edwards | 0 | SAME | -1.8 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Cameron Thomas | C. Thomas | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -2.6 | ||||||||
| LaMarcus Aldridge | L. Aldridge | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| David Duke | D. Duke | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Day'ron Sharpe | D. Sharpe | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +7.7 | +2.2 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +7.3 | +1.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 116-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 61 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1715 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1536). The weight given to Elo — 21% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1536). The weight given to Elo — 21% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1677 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1693 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Kevin Durant | K. Durant | 37 | +4.2 | +0.1 | |||||
| Kyrie Irving | K. Irving | 38 | +5.2 | -1.0 | |||||
| Ben Simmons | B. Simmons | 37 | +1.1 | +1.9 | |||||
| Joe Harris | J. Harris | 30 | -0.2 | -0.9 | |||||
| Bruce Brown | B. Brown | 24 | +0.1 | +0.5 | |||||
| Seth Curry | S. Curry | 23 | +1.6 | -1.3 | |||||
| Nicolas Claxton | N. Claxton | 21 | -1.7 | +2.3 | |||||
| Andre Drummond | A. Drummond | 16 | -0.9 | +2.4 | |||||
| Goran Dragic | G. Dragic | 7 | -0.1 | -0.7 | |||||
| Patty Mills | P. Mills | 7 | +0.1 | -1.3 | |||||
| Blake Griffin | B. Griffin | 0 | -0.4 | +1.9 | |||||
| Kessler Edwards | K. Edwards | 0 | -1.8 | -1.3 | |||||
| Cameron Thomas | C. Thomas | 0 | -1.6 | -2.6 | |||||
| LaMarcus Aldridge | L. Aldridge | 0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | |||||
| David Duke | D. Duke | 0 | -1.6 | -1.1 | |||||
| Day'ron Sharpe | D. Sharpe | 0 | -0.9 | +0.7 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +7.1 | +1.2 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 115-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1696 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1536). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1536). The weight given to Elo — 14% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1673 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1688 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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