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UPDATED Oct. 17, 2021, at 5:02 PM

2021-22 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsBuild your own team

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The Denver Nuggets have an 88% chance of making the playoffs and a 7% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic36SAME
+6.9
+1.8
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray0-33
+2.7
0.0
Will BartonW. Barton26SAME
-0.2
-0.8
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.32+6
+2.7
+0.1
Aaron GordonA. Gordon28+2
-0.4
-0.1
Monte MorrisM. Morris25SAME
+0.7
-1.2
Austin RiversA. Rivers22+6
-1.0
-1.2
Facundo CampazzoF. Campazzo19+5
0.0
+1.4
PJ DozierP. Dozier13+4
-0.5
+0.7
Jeff GreenJ. Green13+3
-1.2
-0.7
JaMychal GreenJ. Green13+4
-1.3
-0.9
Zeke NnajiZ. Nnaji13+3
-2.0
-1.7
Bol BolB. Bol0SAME
-3.1
-0.1
Vlatko CancarV. Cancar0SAME
-1.9
-0.9
Markus HowardM. Howard0SAME
-1.5
-2.4
Petr CornelieP. Cornelie0SAME
-3.0
-0.6
Nah'Shon HylandN. Hyland0SAME
-1.1
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+4.1
-0.3
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
114-110
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
51
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1601
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1577). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1577). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1595
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
PLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerExpected minutes per gameExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic36
+6.9
+1.8
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray33
+2.7
0.0
Will BartonW. Barton26
-0.2
-0.8
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.26
+2.7
+0.1
Aaron GordonA. Gordon26
-0.4
-0.1
Monte MorrisM. Morris25
+0.7
-1.2
Austin RiversA. Rivers16
-1.0
-1.2
Facundo CampazzoF. Campazzo14
0.0
+1.4
PJ DozierP. Dozier9
-0.5
+0.7
Jeff GreenJ. Green10
-1.2
-0.7
JaMychal GreenJ. Green9
-1.3
-0.9
Zeke NnajiZ. Nnaji10
-2.0
-1.7
Bol BolB. Bol0
-3.1
-0.1
Vlatko CancarV. Cancar0
-1.9
-0.9
Markus HowardM. Howard0
-1.5
-2.4
Petr CornelieP. Cornelie0
-3.0
-0.6
Nah'Shon HylandN. Hyland0
-1.1
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+5.8
-0.2
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
115-109
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
55
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1644
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1577). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1577). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1633
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Nikola JokicN. Jokic40+4
+7.0
+1.8
Jamal MurrayJ. Murray34+1
+3.3
-0.1
Will BartonW. Barton25-1
-0.2
-0.8
Michael Porter Jr.M. Porter Jr.34+8
+2.8
+0.1
Aaron GordonA. Gordon28+2
-0.5
-0.2
Monte MorrisM. Morris23-2
+0.4
-1.4
Austin RiversA. Rivers19+3
-1.2
-1.3
Facundo CampazzoF. Campazzo16+2
0.0
+1.3
PJ DozierP. Dozier2-7
-0.6
+0.7
Jeff GreenJ. Green8-2
-1.1
-0.7
JaMychal GreenJ. Green3-6
-1.2
-1.0
Zeke NnajiZ. Nnaji8-2
-2.0
-1.7
Bol BolB. Bol0SAME
-3.0
-0.1
Vlatko CancarV. Cancar0SAME
-1.8
-0.9
Markus HowardM. Howard0SAME
-1.2
-2.4
Petr CornelieP. Cornelie0SAME
-2.9
-0.5
Nah'Shon HylandN. Hyland0SAME
-1.0
-1.2
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
+8.0
-0.2
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
113-106
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
59
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1683
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1577). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1577). The weight given to Elo — 18% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1664
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1672
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent