2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Denver Nuggets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Nikola Jokic | N. Jokic | 37 | SAME | +7.9 | +4.1 | ||||||||
| Jamal Murray | J. Murray | 0 | -34 | +3.3 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Will Barton | W. Barton | 30 | SAME | -0.4 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Michael Porter Jr. | M. Porter Jr. | 33 | +3 | +0.3 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Aaron Gordon | A. Gordon | 31 | +2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Monte Morris | M. Morris | 28 | +1 | +0.8 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Austin Rivers | A. Rivers | 19 | +7 | -1.6 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Jeff Green | J. Green | 22 | +2 | -1.3 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Bones Hyland | B. Hyland | 15 | +6 | +1.4 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Bryn Forbes | B. Forbes | 15 | +6 | +0.1 | -3.2 | ||||||||
| JaMychal Green | J. Green | 5 | +5 | -1.6 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| DeMarcus Cousins | D. Cousins | 5 | +2 | -0.7 | +2.0 | ||||||||
| Zeke Nnaji | Z. Nnaji | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Facundo Campazzo | F. Campazzo | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Davon Reed | D. Reed | 0 | SAME | -0.6 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Markus Howard | M. Howard | 0 | SAME | -0.6 | -2.5 | ||||||||
| Vlatko Cancar | V. Cancar | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.0 | +0.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-106 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1625 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1532). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1532). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1596 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1604 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Nikola Jokic | N. Jokic | 37 | +7.9 | +4.1 | |||||
| Jamal Murray | J. Murray | 34 | +3.3 | -0.1 | |||||
| Will Barton | W. Barton | 30 | -0.4 | -1.0 | |||||
| Michael Porter Jr. | M. Porter Jr. | 30 | +0.3 | +2.0 | |||||
| Aaron Gordon | A. Gordon | 29 | 0.0 | -0.3 | |||||
| Monte Morris | M. Morris | 27 | +0.8 | -1.8 | |||||
| Austin Rivers | A. Rivers | 12 | -1.6 | -1.3 | |||||
| Jeff Green | J. Green | 20 | -1.3 | -1.4 | |||||
| Bones Hyland | B. Hyland | 9 | +1.4 | -1.3 | |||||
| Bryn Forbes | B. Forbes | 9 | +0.1 | -3.2 | |||||
| JaMychal Green | J. Green | 0 | -1.6 | -0.7 | |||||
| DeMarcus Cousins | D. Cousins | 3 | -0.7 | +2.0 | |||||
| Zeke Nnaji | Z. Nnaji | 0 | -1.4 | -1.6 | |||||
| Facundo Campazzo | F. Campazzo | 0 | -1.2 | +1.4 | |||||
| Davon Reed | D. Reed | 0 | -0.6 | -0.2 | |||||
| Markus Howard | M. Howard | 0 | -0.6 | -2.5 | |||||
| Vlatko Cancar | V. Cancar | 0 | -1.9 | -0.8 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +7.3 | +0.8 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.5 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-105 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 59 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1692 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1532). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1532). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1668 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1676 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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