2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The New Orleans Pelicans have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Zion Williamson | Z. Williamson | 40 | SAME | +3.8 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Brandon Ingram | B. Ingram | 38 | SAME | +2.2 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| CJ McCollum* | C. McCollum* | 40 | SAME | +2.9 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Herb Jones* | H. Jones* | 36 | SAME | -1.4 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Jonas Valanciunas | J. Valanciunas | 27 | SAME | +0.7 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Larry Nance Jr. | L. Nance Jr. | 12 | SAME | -0.8 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Trey Murphy III* | T. Murphy III* | 21 | SAME | -0.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Jose Alvarado | J. Alvarado | 16 | +3 | +0.3 | +2.7 | ||||||||
| Jaxson Hayes | J. Hayes | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Kira Lewis Jr. | K. Lewis Jr. | 0 | -13 | -1.2 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Naji Marshall | N. Marshall | 0 | SAME | -1.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Devonte' Graham | D. Graham | 10 | +10 | +1.7 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Willy Hernangomez | W. Hernangomez | 0 | SAME | -0.2 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Tony Snell | T. Snell | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Garrett Temple | G. Temple | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Gary Clark | G. Clark | 0 | SAME | -1.4 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Jared Harper | J. Harper | 0 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.4 | +0.7 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +5.5 | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1628 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1545). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1545). The weight given to Elo — 13% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1617 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1621 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Zion Williamson | Z. Williamson | 40 | +3.8 | -0.6 | |||||
| Brandon Ingram | B. Ingram | 38 | +2.2 | -1.4 | |||||
| CJ McCollum* | C. McCollum* | 40 | +2.9 | -0.8 | |||||
| Herb Jones | H. Jones* | 36 | -1.4 | +2.2 | |||||
| Jonas Valanciunas | J. Valanciunas | 27 | +0.7 | +0.9 | |||||
| Larry Nance Jr. | L. Nance Jr. | 12 | -0.8 | +0.7 | |||||
| Trey Murphy III | T. Murphy III* | 21 | -0.6 | -0.6 | |||||
| Jose Alvarado | J. Alvarado | 13 | +0.3 | +2.7 | |||||
| Jaxson Hayes | J. Hayes | 0 | -1.2 | -0.6 | |||||
| Kira Lewis Jr. | K. Lewis Jr. | 13 | -1.2 | -0.5 | |||||
| Naji Marshall | N. Marshall | 0 | -1.0 | +0.4 | |||||
| Devonte' Graham | D. Graham | 0 | +1.7 | -1.3 | |||||
| Willy Hernangomez | W. Hernangomez | 0 | -0.2 | -0.8 | |||||
| Tony Snell | T. Snell | 0 | -1.6 | -1.6 | |||||
| Garrett Temple | G. Temple | 0 | -2.4 | +0.1 | |||||
| Gary Clark | G. Clark | 0 | -1.4 | -1.2 | |||||
| Jared Harper | J. Harper | 0 | -0.7 | -0.9 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.7 | +0.7 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +4.8 | -0.2 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 52 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1614 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1545). The weight given to Elo — 8% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1545). The weight given to Elo — 8% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1608 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1612 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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