2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Toronto Raptors have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Pascal Siakam | P. Siakam | 39 | SAME | +1.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| OG Anunoby | O. Anunoby | 36 | SAME | +0.2 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Fred VanVleet | F. VanVleet | 39 | SAME | +2.7 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Gary Trent Jr. | G. Trent Jr. | 33 | SAME | +1.1 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Scottie Barnes | S. Barnes | 35 | SAME | -0.2 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Precious Achiuwa* | P. Achiuwa* | 28 | SAME | -2.4 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Chris Boucher | C. Boucher | 10 | SAME | +0.3 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Khem Birch | K. Birch | 10 | SAME | -2.0 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Thaddeus Young | T. Young | 10 | SAME | 0.0 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Malachi Flynn | M. Flynn | 0 | SAME | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Svi Mykhailiuk | S. Mykhailiuk | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Dalano Banton | D. Banton | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Yuta Watanabe | Y. Watanabe | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Isaac Bonga | I. Bonga | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Justin Champagnie | J. Champagnie | 0 | SAME | -0.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| David Johnson | D. Johnson | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Armoni Brooks | A. Brooks | 0 | SAME | -0.3 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.9 | +2.5 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +1.7 | +2.4 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-103 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 51 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1603 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1594 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1599 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Pascal Siakam | P. Siakam | 39 | +1.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| OG Anunoby | O. Anunoby | 36 | +0.2 | +0.5 | |||||
| Fred VanVleet | F. VanVleet | 39 | +2.7 | +1.4 | |||||
| Gary Trent Jr. | G. Trent Jr. | 33 | +1.1 | -1.2 | |||||
| Scottie Barnes | S. Barnes | 35 | -0.2 | +0.6 | |||||
| Precious Achiuwa* | P. Achiuwa* | 28 | -2.4 | +1.8 | |||||
| Chris Boucher | C. Boucher | 10 | +0.3 | +0.8 | |||||
| Khem Birch | K. Birch | 10 | -2.0 | +0.6 | |||||
| Thaddeus Young | T. Young | 10 | 0.0 | +1.1 | |||||
| Malachi Flynn | M. Flynn | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||||
| Svi Mykhailiuk | S. Mykhailiuk | 0 | -1.6 | -1.3 | |||||
| Dalano Banton | D. Banton | 0 | -2.6 | +0.1 | |||||
| Yuta Watanabe | Y. Watanabe | 0 | -1.9 | -0.4 | |||||
| Isaac Bonga | I. Bonga | 0 | -2.6 | +1.8 | |||||
| Justin Champagnie | J. Champagnie | 0 | -0.8 | -0.3 | |||||
| David Johnson | D. Johnson | 0 | -2.2 | -1.2 | |||||
| Armoni Brooks | A. Brooks | 0 | -0.3 | -1.8 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.9 | +2.5 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +1.7 | +2.4 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 107-103 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 51 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1603 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1570). The weight given to Elo — 27% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1594 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1599 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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