2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Houston Rockets have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Christian Wood | C. Wood | 0 | -32 | -0.6 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| John Wall | J. Wall | 0 | -22 | -0.6 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Kevin Porter Jr.* | K. Porter Jr.* | 48 | +20 | -0.1 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Jalen Green | J. Green | 36 | +4 | -1.5 | -2.5 | ||||||||
| Eric Gordon | E. Gordon | 0 | -25 | -0.4 | -2.8 | ||||||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 0 | -20 | -1.1 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Garrison Mathews | G. Mathews | 25 | +8 | +0.5 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Jae'Sean Tate | J. Tate | 29 | +2 | -1.0 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Alperen Sengun* | A. Sengun* | 24 | +6 | -1.4 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| David Nwaba | D. Nwaba | 14 | +3 | -0.7 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | K. Martin Jr. | 12 | +12 | -0.6 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Usman Garuba | U. Garuba | 11 | +11 | -1.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Bruno Fernando | B. Fernando | 9 | +4 | -3.6 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Josh Christopher | J. Christopher | 2 | +2 | -1.5 | -2.3 | ||||||||
| Daishen Nix | D. Nix | 13 | +13 | -2.8 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Trevelin Queen | T. Queen | 2 | +2 | -0.6 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Anthony Lamb | A. Lamb | 15 | +12 | -1.4 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -4.2 | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -5.4 | -4.4 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 104-113 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 19 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1271 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1300). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1300). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1278 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1278 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Christian Wood | C. Wood | 32 | -0.6 | +0.1 | |||||
| John Wall | J. Wall | 22 | -0.6 | -1.6 | |||||
| Kevin Porter Jr. | K. Porter Jr. | 28 | -0.1 | -1.0 | |||||
| Jalen Green | J. Green | 32 | -1.5 | -2.5 | |||||
| Eric Gordon | E. Gordon | 25 | -0.4 | -2.8 | |||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 20 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |||||
| Garrison Mathews | G. Mathews | 17 | +0.5 | +1.3 | |||||
| Jae'Sean Tate | J. Tate | 27 | -1.0 | +0.7 | |||||
| Alperen Sengun | A. Sengun | 18 | -1.4 | -1.1 | |||||
| David Nwaba | D. Nwaba | 11 | -0.7 | +1.1 | |||||
| Kenyon Martin Jr. | K. Martin Jr. | 0 | -0.6 | -2.4 | |||||
| Usman Garuba | U. Garuba | 0 | -1.2 | -0.4 | |||||
| Bruno Fernando | B. Fernando | 5 | -3.6 | -0.8 | |||||
| Josh Christopher | J. Christopher | 0 | -1.5 | -2.3 | |||||
| Daishen Nix | D. Nix | 0 | -2.8 | -1.9 | |||||
| Trevelin Queen | T. Queen | 0 | -0.6 | +0.3 | |||||
| Anthony Lamb | A. Lamb | 3 | -1.4 | -0.8 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -3.5 | -3.5 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-112 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 24 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1338 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1300). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1300). The weight given to Elo — 12% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1333 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1337 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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