2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The San Antonio Spurs have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Dejounte Murray | D. Murray | 35 | SAME | +2.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Keldon Johnson | K. Johnson | 30 | SAME | +0.6 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Jakob Poeltl | J. Poeltl | 31 | SAME | +0.4 | +3.0 | ||||||||
| Devin Vassell | D. Vassell | 25 | SAME | -0.3 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Doug McDermott | D. McDermott | 22 | SAME | -0.1 | -3.5 | ||||||||
| Lonnie Walker IV | L. Walker IV | 20 | SAME | -1.2 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 22 | SAME | -0.3 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Joshua Primo | J. Primo | 4 | SAME | -3.4 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Zach Collins | Z. Collins | 18 | SAME | -2.6 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 4 | SAME | -1.4 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Keita Bates-Diop | K. Bates-Diop | 15 | SAME | -1.9 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Tre Jones | T. Jones | 4 | SAME | 0.0 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Jock Landale | J. Landale | 5 | SAME | -1.8 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Robert Woodard II | R. Woodard II | 5 | SAME | -1.2 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Joe Wieskamp | J. Wieskamp | 0 | SAME | -1.3 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Devontae Cacok | D. Cacok | 0 | SAME | -0.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| D.J. Stewart Jr. | D. Stewart Jr. | 0 | SAME | -2.8 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.9 | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 36 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1459 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1485). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1485). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1466 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1467 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Dejounte Murray | D. Murray | 35 | +2.1 | +0.5 | |||||
| Keldon Johnson | K. Johnson | 30 | +0.6 | -0.7 | |||||
| Jakob Poeltl | J. Poeltl | 31 | +0.4 | +3.0 | |||||
| Devin Vassell | D. Vassell | 25 | -0.3 | -0.5 | |||||
| Doug McDermott | D. McDermott | 22 | -0.1 | -3.5 | |||||
| Lonnie Walker IV | L. Walker IV | 20 | -1.2 | -2.1 | |||||
| Josh Richardson | J. Richardson | 22 | -0.3 | -0.7 | |||||
| Joshua Primo | J. Primo | 4 | -3.4 | -1.2 | |||||
| Zach Collins | Z. Collins | 18 | -2.6 | +0.3 | |||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 4 | -1.4 | +0.8 | |||||
| Keita Bates-Diop | K. Bates-Diop | 15 | -1.9 | +0.1 | |||||
| Tre Jones | T. Jones | 4 | 0.0 | +0.2 | |||||
| Jock Landale | J. Landale | 5 | -1.8 | -0.8 | |||||
| Robert Woodard II | R. Woodard II | 5 | -1.2 | -0.3 | |||||
| Joe Wieskamp | J. Wieskamp | 0 | -1.3 | -1.0 | |||||
| Devontae Cacok | D. Cacok | 0 | -0.9 | 0.0 | |||||
| D.J. Stewart Jr. | D. Stewart Jr. | 0 | -2.8 | -1.2 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.9 | -1.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 105-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 36 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1459 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1485). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1485). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1466 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1467 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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