2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Phoenix Suns have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Mikal Bridges | M. Bridges | 38 | +1 | +1.4 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Devin Booker | D. Booker | 37 | SAME | +4.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Chris Paul | C. Paul | 34 | SAME | +3.8 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Deandre Ayton | D. Ayton | 32 | SAME | 0.0 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Cameron Johnson | C. Johnson | 25 | +3 | +0.4 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Jae Crowder | J. Crowder | 28 | +5 | +0.3 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Dario Saric | D. Saric | 0 | -16 | -1.2 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Landry Shamet | L. Shamet | 19 | SAME | -0.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Cameron Payne | C. Payne | 14 | +1 | +0.9 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| JaVale McGee | J. McGee | 12 | +5 | -1.2 | +1.7 | ||||||||
| Torrey Craig | T. Craig | 1 | +1 | -1.5 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Aaron Holiday | A. Holiday | 0 | SAME | -0.5 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Bismack Biyombo | B. Biyombo | 0 | SAME | -3.4 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Elfrid Payton | E. Payton | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Ishmail Wainright | I. Wainright | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Gabriel Lundberg | G. Lundberg | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.5 | +2.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-104 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 62 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1721 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1616). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1616). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1679 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1691 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Mikal Bridges | M. Bridges | 37 | +1.4 | +1.1 | |||||
| Devin Booker | D. Booker | 37 | +4.2 | -0.4 | |||||
| Chris Paul | C. Paul | 34 | +3.8 | -0.5 | |||||
| Deandre Ayton | D. Ayton | 32 | 0.0 | +1.5 | |||||
| Cameron Johnson | C. Johnson | 22 | +0.4 | +1.1 | |||||
| Jae Crowder | J. Crowder | 23 | +0.3 | +1.4 | |||||
| Dario Saric | D. Saric | 16 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |||||
| Landry Shamet | L. Shamet | 19 | -0.3 | -0.4 | |||||
| Cameron Payne | C. Payne | 13 | +0.9 | +0.7 | |||||
| JaVale McGee | J. McGee | 7 | -1.2 | +1.7 | |||||
| Torrey Craig | T. Craig | 0 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |||||
| Aaron Holiday | A. Holiday | 0 | -0.5 | -0.3 | |||||
| Bismack Biyombo | B. Biyombo | 0 | -3.4 | -0.3 | |||||
| Elfrid Payton | E. Payton | 0 | -2.6 | -0.2 | |||||
| Ishmail Wainright | I. Wainright | 0 | -2.1 | +0.5 | |||||
| Gabriel Lundberg | G. Lundberg | 0 | -2.1 | -1.1 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +6.2 | +2.3 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-105 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1704 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1616). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1616). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1673 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1685 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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