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UPDATED Oct. 17, 2021, at 5:02 PM

2021-22 NBA Predictions

Updated after every game and depth chart revision.

More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsBuild your own team

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The Oklahoma City Thunder have a <0.1% chance of making the playoffs and a <0.1% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander33SAME
+2.2
-0.9
Luguentz DortL. Dort30SAME
-1.3
+2.4
Josh GiddeyJ. Giddey22SAME
-1.5
-0.5
Darius BazleyD. Bazley28SAME
-3.7
-1.0
Isaiah RobyI. Roby21SAME
-3.9
-0.8
Theo MaledonT. Maledon17SAME
-3.4
-1.9
Aleksej PokusevskiA. Pokusevski22SAME
-4.8
-2.0
Derrick FavorsD. Favors18SAME
-0.8
+2.3
Tre MannT. Mann12SAME
-1.5
-1.4
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams19SAME
-0.6
+0.4
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala6SAME
-1.3
+0.6
Gabriel DeckG. Deck6SAME
-1.1
-0.5
Jeremiah Robinson-EarlJ. Robinson-Earl0SAME
-1.8
-0.2
Ty JeromeT. Jerome2SAME
+0.3
-1.9
Vit KrejciV. Krejci0SAME
-1.0
-0.2
Paul WatsonP. Watson2SAME
-0.3
-1.7
Aaron WigginsA. Wiggins2SAME
-1.3
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-6.8
-1.1
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
104-112
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
21
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1295
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1309). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1309). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1297
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
PLAYER RATINGPLAYER RATING
PlayerExpected minutes per gameExp. min. per gameOff. +/-Def. +/-
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander33
+2.2
-0.9
Luguentz DortL. Dort30
-1.3
+2.4
Josh GiddeyJ. Giddey22
-1.5
-0.5
Darius BazleyD. Bazley28
-3.7
-1.0
Isaiah RobyI. Roby21
-3.9
-0.8
Theo MaledonT. Maledon17
-3.4
-1.9
Aleksej PokusevskiA. Pokusevski22
-4.8
-2.0
Derrick FavorsD. Favors18
-0.8
+2.3
Tre MannT. Mann12
-1.5
-1.4
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams19
-0.6
+0.4
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala6
-1.3
+0.6
Gabriel DeckG. Deck6
-1.1
-0.5
Jeremiah Robinson-EarlJ. Robinson-Earl0
-1.8
-0.2
Ty JeromeT. Jerome2
+0.3
-1.9
Vit KrejciV. Krejci0
-1.0
-0.2
Paul WatsonP. Watson2
-0.3
-1.7
Aaron WigginsA. Wiggins2
-1.3
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-6.8
-1.1
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
104-112
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
21
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1295
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1309). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1309). The weight given to Elo — 16% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1297
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Expected minutes per gamePLAYER RATINGExp. min. per gamePLAYER RATING
PlayerTOTALvs. full strength (today)vs. full strength (today)Off. +/-Def. +/-
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderS. Gilgeous-Alexander36+3
+2.2
-0.9
Luguentz DortL. Dort31+1
-1.4
+2.5
Josh GiddeyJ. Giddey24+2
-1.5
-0.5
Darius BazleyD. Bazley27-1
-3.6
-1.0
Isaiah RobyI. Roby19-2
-3.8
-0.7
Theo MaledonT. Maledon23+6
-3.3
-1.9
Aleksej PokusevskiA. Pokusevski21-1
-4.8
-2.0
Derrick FavorsD. Favors20+2
-0.6
+2.4
Tre MannT. Mann6-6
-1.5
-1.4
Kenrich WilliamsK. Williams20+1
-0.6
+0.4
Mike MuscalaM. Muscala3-3
-1.3
+0.6
Gabriel DeckG. Deck3-3
-1.1
-0.5
Jeremiah Robinson-EarlJ. Robinson-Earl0SAME
-1.7
-0.2
Ty JeromeT. Jerome3+1
+0.3
-1.9
Vit KrejciV. Krejci0SAME
-0.9
-0.2
Paul WatsonP. Watson2SAME
-0.3
-1.7
Aaron WigginsA. Wiggins2SAME
-1.2
-0.8
Rotation ratingsFirst, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
Rotation ratings
First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.
-7.3
-1.0
Points per gameWe combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
Points per game
We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.
100-108
Rotation winsWe use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
Rotation wins
We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.
21
Rotation ratingThen we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
Rotation rating
Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.
1300
Team ratingWe blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1309). The weight given to Elo — 17% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
Team rating
We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1309). The weight given to Elo — 17% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.
1302
Playoff ratingFinally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
Playoff rating
Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.
1303
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation
Current rotationCurrent