2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Oklahoma City Thunder have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 0 | -37 | +2.5 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Luguentz Dort | L. Dort | 0 | -33 | -1.4 | +1.7 | ||||||||
| Josh Giddey | J. Giddey | 0 | -32 | -1.8 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Darius Bazley | D. Bazley | 0 | -28 | -3.6 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Derrick Favors | D. Favors | 0 | -18 | -1.6 | +2.2 | ||||||||
| Aleksej Pokusevski* | A. Pokusevski* | 28 | +10 | -3.4 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Kenrich Williams* | K. Williams* | 32 | +16 | -0.8 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Theo Maledon | T. Maledon | 18 | +7 | -3.1 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | J. Robinson-Earl | 20 | +8 | -3.2 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Roby* | I. Roby* | 48 | +30 | -2.2 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Tre Mann | T. Mann | 21 | +9 | -2.0 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Ty Jerome | T. Jerome | 0 | -3 | -0.2 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Mike Muscala | M. Muscala | 0 | -2 | 0.0 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Vit Krejci | V. Krejci | 9 | +9 | -2.1 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Aaron Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 24 | +24 | -1.6 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Lindy Waters III | L. Waters III | 24 | +24 | -1.5 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Melvin Frazier Jr. | M. Frazier Jr. | 16 | +16 | -1.0 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -8.8 | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -11.4 | -4.9 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 96-112 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 9 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1106 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1106 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1106 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 37 | +2.5 | -0.9 | |||||
| Luguentz Dort | L. Dort | 33 | -1.4 | +1.7 | |||||
| Josh Giddey | J. Giddey | 32 | -1.8 | +0.3 | |||||
| Darius Bazley | D. Bazley | 28 | -3.6 | -0.8 | |||||
| Derrick Favors | D. Favors | 18 | -1.6 | +2.2 | |||||
| Aleksej Pokusevski | A. Pokusevski | 18 | -3.4 | -0.7 | |||||
| Kenrich Williams | K. Williams | 16 | -0.8 | +1.8 | |||||
| Theo Maledon | T. Maledon | 11 | -3.1 | -1.5 | |||||
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | J. Robinson-Earl | 12 | -3.2 | +0.4 | |||||
| Isaiah Roby | I. Roby | 18 | -2.2 | -1.0 | |||||
| Tre Mann | T. Mann | 12 | -2.0 | -1.4 | |||||
| Ty Jerome | T. Jerome | 3 | -0.2 | -0.8 | |||||
| Mike Muscala | M. Muscala | 2 | 0.0 | +1.5 | |||||
| Vit Krejci | V. Krejci | 0 | -2.1 | -1.8 | |||||
| Aaron Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 0 | -1.6 | -1.4 | |||||
| Lindy Waters III | L. Waters III | 0 | -1.5 | -1.3 | |||||
| Melvin Frazier Jr. | M. Frazier Jr. | 0 | -1.0 | -0.7 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -6.6 | +0.4 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 101-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 26 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1352 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1320). The weight given to Elo — 0% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1352 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1353 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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