2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Minnesota Timberwolves have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Karl-Anthony Towns | K. Towns | 35 | SAME | +3.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Anthony Edwards | A. Edwards | 39 | SAME | +1.6 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| D'Angelo Russell | D. Russell | 31 | SAME | +2.5 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Patrick Beverley* | P. Beverley* | 32 | SAME | +1.0 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Jarred Vanderbilt | J. Vanderbilt | 23 | SAME | -0.4 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Malik Beasley | M. Beasley | 24 | SAME | +0.7 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Jaden McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 20 | SAME | -2.1 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Jordan McLaughlin | J. McLaughlin | 8 | SAME | 0.0 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Naz Reid | N. Reid | 9 | SAME | -2.2 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Taurean Prince | T. Prince | 10 | SAME | -0.9 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Jaylen Nowell | J. Nowell | 9 | SAME | +1.1 | -2.0 | ||||||||
| Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | +3.5 | ||||||||
| Leandro Bolmaro | L. Bolmaro | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Greg Monroe | G. Monroe | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Jake Layman | J. Layman | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Nathan Knight | N. Knight | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| McKinley Wright IV | M. Wright IV | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.4 | +0.1 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +4.2 | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 51 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1599 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1555). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1555). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1580 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1582 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Karl-Anthony Towns | K. Towns | 35 | +3.2 | -0.4 | |||||
| Anthony Edwards | A. Edwards | 39 | +1.6 | -0.4 | |||||
| D'Angelo Russell | D. Russell | 31 | +2.5 | -1.4 | |||||
| Patrick Beverley* | P. Beverley* | 32 | +1.0 | +1.8 | |||||
| Jarred Vanderbilt | J. Vanderbilt | 23 | -0.4 | +2.1 | |||||
| Malik Beasley | M. Beasley | 24 | +0.7 | -1.8 | |||||
| Jaden McDaniels | J. McDaniels | 20 | -2.1 | +1.3 | |||||
| Jordan McLaughlin | J. McLaughlin | 8 | 0.0 | -0.2 | |||||
| Naz Reid | N. Reid | 9 | -2.2 | +0.9 | |||||
| Taurean Prince | T. Prince | 10 | -0.9 | -0.3 | |||||
| Jaylen Nowell | J. Nowell | 9 | +1.1 | -2.0 | |||||
| Josh Okogie | J. Okogie | 0 | -2.5 | +3.5 | |||||
| Leandro Bolmaro | L. Bolmaro | 0 | -2.3 | +0.1 | |||||
| Greg Monroe | G. Monroe | 0 | -2.5 | +0.8 | |||||
| Jake Layman | J. Layman | 0 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |||||
| Nathan Knight | N. Knight | 0 | -1.7 | +0.5 | |||||
| McKinley Wright IV | M. Wright IV | 0 | -0.4 | -0.9 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.4 | +0.1 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +4.2 | -0.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-109 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 51 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1599 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1555). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1555). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1580 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1582 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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