2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Golden State Warriors have a 100% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Stephen Curry* | S. Curry* | 41 | SAME | +6.0 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 33 | SAME | -0.3 | +4.0 | ||||||||
| Klay Thompson* | K. Thompson* | 37 | SAME | 0.0 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins* | A. Wiggins* | 41 | SAME | -0.2 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 23 | +4 | +1.2 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 0 | -17 | -4.3 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Gary Payton II* | G. Payton II* | 20 | +1 | +0.6 | +2.8 | ||||||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 20 | +3 | -1.2 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Otto Porter Jr. | O. Porter Jr. | 16 | SAME | +0.7 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Nemanja Bjelica | N. Bjelica | 4 | +4 | -0.7 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 5 | +5 | -0.8 | +2.4 | ||||||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 0 | SAME | -1.1 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 0 | SAME | -2.2 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Chris Chiozza | C. Chiozza | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Quinndary Weatherspoon | Q. Weatherspoon | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.0 | +4.2 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +3.8 | +3.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-106 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 57 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1668 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1712). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1712). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1686 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1704 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Stephen Curry* | S. Curry* | 41 | +6.0 | -0.2 | |||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 33 | -0.3 | +4.0 | |||||
| Klay Thompson* | K. Thompson* | 37 | 0.0 | -1.3 | |||||
| Andrew Wiggins* | A. Wiggins* | 41 | -0.2 | +1.0 | |||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 19 | +1.2 | -1.4 | |||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 17 | -4.3 | -0.5 | |||||
| Gary Payton II | G. Payton II | 19 | +0.6 | +2.8 | |||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 17 | -1.2 | +1.9 | |||||
| Otto Porter Jr. | O. Porter Jr. | 16 | +0.7 | +0.8 | |||||
| Nemanja Bjelica | N. Bjelica | 0 | -0.7 | +0.6 | |||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 0 | -0.8 | +2.4 | |||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 0 | -2.4 | -1.2 | |||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 0 | -1.7 | +1.2 | |||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 0 | -1.1 | +0.4 | |||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 0 | -2.2 | -1.8 | |||||
| Chris Chiozza | C. Chiozza | 0 | -0.4 | -1.1 | |||||
| Quinndary Weatherspoon | Q. Weatherspoon | 0 | -1.7 | -1.4 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.6 | +3.6 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +2.6 | +2.6 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.2 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-107 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1629 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1712). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1712). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1657 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1673 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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