2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Golden State Warriors have a 7% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 37 | +2 | +6.5 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 32 | +2 | +0.3 | +4.0 | ||||||||
| Jordan Poole* | J. Poole* | 35 | SAME | +1.8 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Klay Thompson* | K. Thompson* | 35 | SAME | -0.4 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 34 | +2 | +0.2 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 0 | -21 | -4.3 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Otto Porter Jr. | O. Porter Jr. | 21 | +1 | +0.8 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 16 | +7 | -2.2 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 0 | -14 | -0.9 | +2.4 | ||||||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 18 | +9 | -1.2 | +1.8 | ||||||||
| Gary Payton II | G. Payton II | 0 | SAME | +0.6 | +2.8 | ||||||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 7 | +7 | -1.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Nemanja Bjelica | N. Bjelica | 0 | SAME | -0.7 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | +1.1 | ||||||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Chris Chiozza | C. Chiozza | 5 | +5 | -0.4 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Quinndary Weatherspoon | Q. Weatherspoon | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +5.0 | +1.5 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +4.4 | +0.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 114-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1626 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1630 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1646 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 35 | +6.5 | -0.2 | |||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 30 | +0.3 | +4.0 | |||||
| Jordan Poole* | J. Poole* | 35 | +1.8 | -1.0 | |||||
| Klay Thompson* | K. Thompson* | 35 | -0.4 | -1.5 | |||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 32 | +0.2 | +0.5 | |||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 21 | -4.3 | -0.5 | |||||
| Otto Porter Jr. | O. Porter Jr. | 20 | +0.8 | +0.7 | |||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 9 | -2.2 | -1.8 | |||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 14 | -0.9 | +2.4 | |||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 9 | -1.2 | +1.8 | |||||
| Gary Payton II | G. Payton II | 0 | +0.6 | +2.8 | |||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 0 | -1.0 | +0.4 | |||||
| Nemanja Bjelica | N. Bjelica | 0 | -0.7 | +0.6 | |||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 0 | -1.7 | +1.1 | |||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 0 | -2.5 | -1.1 | |||||
| Chris Chiozza | C. Chiozza | 0 | -0.4 | -1.1 | |||||
| Quinndary Weatherspoon | Q. Weatherspoon | 0 | -1.6 | -1.4 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.5 | +1.7 | |||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | +2.8 | +1.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-108 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 50 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1596 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1638). The weight given to Elo — 25% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1606 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1624 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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