2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Golden State Warriors have a 19% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.1% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 34 | SAME | +6.6 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Klay Thompson | K. Thompson | 0 | -24 | -0.6 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 33 | +3 | -0.5 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 30 | +2 | -0.8 | +2.9 | ||||||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 22 | +2 | -2.5 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 0 | -20 | -4.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Otto Porter Jr. | O. Porter Jr. | 22 | +7 | +0.5 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 17 | SAME | -1.8 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 22 | +4 | +0.2 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 0 | -11 | -2.3 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 17 | +6 | -1.9 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 17 | +6 | -1.8 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Nemanja Bjelica | N. Bjelica | 17 | +16 | -0.7 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 4 | +4 | -0.2 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Chris Chiozza | C. Chiozza | 5 | +5 | +1.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Jeff Dowtin | J. Dowtin | 0 | SAME | -1.7 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.8 | +0.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-112 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 44 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1531 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1529). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1529). The weight given to Elo — 23% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1530 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PLAYER RATING | PLAYER RATING | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 34 | +6.6 | -1.1 | ||||
| Klay Thompson | K. Thompson | 24 | -0.6 | -1.1 | ||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 30 | -0.5 | +0.1 | ||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 28 | -0.8 | +2.9 | ||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 20 | -2.5 | +1.5 | ||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 20 | -4.3 | -0.4 | ||||
| Otto Porter Jr. | O. Porter Jr. | 15 | +0.5 | -0.5 | ||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 17 | -1.8 | -0.1 | ||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 18 | +0.2 | -1.9 | ||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 11 | -2.3 | -1.0 | ||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 11 | -1.9 | -1.5 | ||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 11 | -1.8 | +1.3 | ||||
| Nemanja Bjelica | N. Bjelica | 1 | -0.7 | -0.6 | ||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 0 | -0.2 | +0.7 | ||||
| Chris Chiozza | C. Chiozza | 0 | +1.4 | -0.9 | ||||
| Jeff Dowtin | J. Dowtin | 0 | -1.7 | -0.8 | ||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.8 | -0.2 | ||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 103.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-113 | |||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 38 | |||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1477 | |||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1529). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1529). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1485 | |||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Stephen Curry | S. Curry | 38 | +4 | +6.3 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Klay Thompson | K. Thompson | 19 | -5 | -1.0 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | A. Wiggins | 33 | +3 | -0.5 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Draymond Green | D. Green | 31 | +3 | -0.1 | +3.1 | ||||||||
| Kevon Looney | K. Looney | 20 | SAME | -2.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| James Wiseman | J. Wiseman | 23 | +3 | -4.3 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Otto Porter Jr. | O. Porter Jr. | 21 | +6 | +0.7 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Andre Iguodala | A. Iguodala | 17 | SAME | -1.5 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Jordan Poole | J. Poole | 20 | +2 | +0.2 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Jonathan Kuminga | J. Kuminga | 4 | -7 | -2.2 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Moses Moody | M. Moody | 7 | -4 | -1.8 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Juan Toscano-Anderson | J. Toscano-Anderson | 5 | -6 | -1.8 | +1.3 | ||||||||
| Nemanja Bjelica | N. Bjelica | 2 | +1 | -0.6 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Damion Lee | D. Lee | 0 | SAME | -0.2 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Chris Chiozza | C. Chiozza | 0 | SAME | +1.4 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Jeff Dowtin | J. Dowtin | 0 | SAME | -1.6 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.3 | -0.1 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 100.6 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 42 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1510 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1529). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1529). The weight given to Elo — 15% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1513 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1529 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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