2021-22 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Washington Wizards have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Bradley Beal | B. Beal | 0 | -39 | +2.9 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Kristaps Porzingis | K. Porzingis | 0 | -29 | +1.3 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Rui Hachimura* | R. Hachimura* | 31 | +8 | -1.2 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Kyle Kuzma | K. Kuzma | 0 | -31 | -2.0 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | K. Caldwell-Pope | 0 | -31 | -0.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||
| Raul Neto* | R. Neto* | 31 | +12 | -0.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Daniel Gafford | D. Gafford | 22 | +3 | +0.3 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Deni Avdija | D. Avdija | 26 | +17 | -1.0 | +1.7 | ||||||||
| Ish Smith* | I. Smith* | 32 | +16 | -1.7 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Thomas Bryant | T. Bryant | 17 | +10 | -2.3 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| Corey Kispert | C. Kispert | 17 | +17 | -0.2 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Tomas Satoransky* | T. Satoransky* | 23 | +8 | -1.1 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Vernon Carey Jr. | V. Carey Jr. | 9 | +9 | -3.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Isaiah Todd | I. Todd | 8 | +8 | -2.9 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Anthony Gill | A. Gill | 9 | +9 | -0.9 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Cassius Winston | C. Winston | 10 | +8 | -0.1 | -2.1 | ||||||||
| Jordan Schakel | J. Schakel | 5 | +5 | -1.3 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -4.1 | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Adj. rotation ratings | A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | Adj. rotation ratings A flagged (*) player is on the court more than we expected. As a result, a penalty is applied to the rotation’s ratings. | -5.7 | -3.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 99-109 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 19 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1275 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 17% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 17% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1300 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1301 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Bradley Beal | B. Beal | 39 | +2.9 | -1.0 | |||||
| Kristaps Porzingis | K. Porzingis | 29 | +1.3 | +0.5 | |||||
| Rui Hachimura | R. Hachimura | 23 | -1.2 | -2.1 | |||||
| Kyle Kuzma | K. Kuzma | 31 | -2.0 | -0.4 | |||||
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | K. Caldwell-Pope | 31 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |||||
| Raul Neto | R. Neto | 19 | -0.3 | +0.3 | |||||
| Daniel Gafford | D. Gafford | 19 | +0.3 | +0.4 | |||||
| Deni Avdija | D. Avdija | 9 | -1.0 | +1.7 | |||||
| Ish Smith | I. Smith | 16 | -1.7 | -1.3 | |||||
| Thomas Bryant | T. Bryant | 7 | -2.3 | -1.5 | |||||
| Corey Kispert | C. Kispert | 0 | -0.2 | -1.9 | |||||
| Tomas Satoransky | T. Satoransky | 15 | -1.1 | -0.8 | |||||
| Vernon Carey Jr. | V. Carey Jr. | 0 | -3.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Isaiah Todd | I. Todd | 0 | -2.9 | -0.6 | |||||
| Anthony Gill | A. Gill | 0 | -0.9 | -0.4 | |||||
| Cassius Winston | C. Winston | 2 | -0.1 | -2.1 | |||||
| Jordan Schakel | J. Schakel | 0 | -1.3 | -0.8 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -0.6 | -2.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 106-109 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 35 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1444 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 8% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1418). The weight given to Elo — 8% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1442 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1447 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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