2022 NFL Predictions
For the regular season and playoffs, updated after every game.
More NFL:Every team’s Elo historyCan you outsmart our forecasts?
elo with top qb elo rating | 1-week change | current qb adj. | team | division | make div. round | make conf. champ | make super bowl | win super bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1733 | +18 | Chiefs17-3 | AFC West | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |
| 1677 | Eagles16-4 | NFC East | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | — | ||
| 1688 | Bengals14-5 | AFC North | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | ||
| 1644 | 49ers15-5 | NFC West | ✓ | ✓ | — | — | ||
| 1661 | Bills14-4 | AFC East | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1631 | Cowboys13-6 | NFC East | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1531 | Jaguars10-9 | AFC South | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1508 | Giants10-8-1 | NFC East | ✓ | — | — | — | ||
| 1599 | Ravens10-8 | AFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1535 | Chargers10-8 | AFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1534 | Vikings13-5 | NFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1521 | Dolphins9-9 | AFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1479 | Buccaneers8-10 | NFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1455 | Seahawks9-9 | NFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1527 | Lions9-8 | NFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1519 | Steelers9-8 | AFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1515 | Packers8-9 | NFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1500 | Patriots8-9 | AFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1492 | Commanders8-8-1 | NFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1485 | Panthers7-10 | NFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1485 | Browns7-10 | AFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1485 | Saints7-10 | NFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1469 | Rams5-12 | NFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1465 | Titans7-10 | AFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1406 | Raiders6-11 | AFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1386 | Jets7-10 | AFC East | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1381 | Colts4-12-1 | AFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1379 | Broncos5-12 | AFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1337 | Cardinals4-13 | NFC West | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1332 | Bears3-14 | NFC North | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1331 | Falcons7-10 | NFC South | — | — | — | — | ||
| 1307 | Texans3-13-1 | AFC South | — | — | — | — |
Completed
Super Bowl
Sunday, Feb. 12
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -2 | 57% | 38 |
| Eagles | 43% | 35 |
Quality 100 How good are these two teams | Importance 100 How much will this game affect playoff odds | Overall 100 An overall rating for this game |
Conference championships
Sunday, Jan. 29
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 41% | 7 | |
| Eagles | -2.5 | 59% | 31 |
Quality 99 | Importance 100 | Overall 100 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 42% | 20 | |
| Chiefs | -2.5 | 58% | 23 |
Quality 100 | Importance 100 | Overall 100 |
Divisional round
Saturday, Jan. 21
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 16% | 20 | |
| Chiefs | -11.5 | 84% | 27 |
Quality 93 | Importance 100 | Overall 97 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 21% | 7 | |
| Eagles | -9 | 79% | 38 |
Quality 87 | Importance 100 | Overall 94 |
Sunday, Jan. 22
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 36% | 27 | |
| Bills | -4 | 64% | 10 |
Quality 99 | Importance 100 | Overall 100 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 41% | 12 | |
| 49ers | -2.5 | 59% | 19 |
Quality 98 | Importance 100 | Overall 99 |
Wild-card round
Saturday, Jan. 14
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 19% | 23 | |
| 49ers | -10 | 81% | 41 |
Quality 68 | Importance 100 | Overall 84 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 40% | 30 | |
| Jaguars | -2.5 | 60% | 31 |
Quality 69 | Importance 100 | Overall 85 |
Sunday, Jan. 15
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 5% | 31 | |
| Bills | -20 | 95% | 34 |
Quality 52 | Importance 100 | Overall 76 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 33% | 31 | |
| Vikings | -5 | 67% | 24 |
Quality 62 | Importance 100 | Overall 81 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 17% | 17 | |
| Bengals | -11 | 83% | 24 |
Quality 80 | Importance 100 | Overall 90 |
Monday, Jan. 16
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -3 | 60% | 31 |
| Buccaneers | 40% | 14 |
Quality 76 | Importance 100 | Overall 88 |
Week 18
Saturday, Jan. 7
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -9 | 79% | 31 |
| Raiders | 21% | 13 |
Quality 71 | Importance 85 | Overall 78 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 26% | 16 | |
| Jaguars | -7.5 | 74% | 20 |
Quality 32 | Importance 100 | Overall 66 |
Sunday, Jan. 8
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 14% | 16 | |
| Bengals | -12.5 | 86% | 27 |
Quality 68 | Importance 1 | Overall 35 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 40% | 10 | |
| Saints | -3 | 60% | 7 |
Quality 43 | Importance 0 | Overall 22 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 46% | 14 | |
| Steelers | -1 | 54% | 28 |
Quality 51 | Importance 80 | Overall 66 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 41% | 32 | |
| Colts | -2.5 | 59% | 31 |
Quality 0 | Importance 0 | Overall 0 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -12.5 | 85% | 29 |
| Bears | 15% | 13 |
Quality 1 | Importance 1 | Overall 1 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 17% | 23 | |
| Bills | -11 | 83% | 35 |
Quality 89 | Importance 71 | Overall 80 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | -3.5 | 62% | 6 |
| Dolphins | 38% | 11 |
Quality 4 | Importance 97 | Overall 51 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 32% | 17 | |
| Falcons | -5 | 68% | 30 |
Quality 11 | Importance 0 | Overall 6 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 8% | 13 | |
| 49ers | -16.5 | 92% | 38 |
Quality 7 | Importance 1 | Overall 4 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -10 | 75% | 6 |
| Commanders | 25% | 26 |
Quality 56 | Importance 2 | Overall 29 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 31% | 28 | |
| Broncos | -5.5 | 69% | 31 |
Quality 26 | Importance 1 | Overall 14 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 44% | 16 | |
| Seahawks | -5 | 56% | 19 |
Quality 13 | Importance 53 | Overall 33 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 4% | 16 | |
| Eagles | -23 | 96% | 22 |
Quality 49 | Importance 10 | Overall 30 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 39% | 20 | |
| Packers | -3 | 61% | 16 |
Quality 61 | Importance 99 | Overall 80 |
Week 17
Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -8.5 | 77% | 27 |
| Titans | 23% | 13 |
Quality 65 | Importance 3 | Overall 34 |
Sunday, Jan. 1
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 30% | 19 | |
| Falcons | -6 | 70% | 20 |
Quality 0 | Importance 0 | Overall 0 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 45% | 24 | |
| Buccaneers | -1.5 | 55% | 30 |
Quality 39 | Importance 100 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 27% | 10 | |
| Lions | -7 | 73% | 41 |
Quality 15 | Importance 25 | Overall 20 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 48% | 24 | |
| Commanders | -0.5 | 52% | 10 |
Quality 35 | Importance 63 | Overall 49 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 11% | 24 | |
| Chiefs | -15 | 89% | 27 |
Quality 58 | Importance 16 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 37% | 10 | |
| Giants | -3.5 | 63% | 38 |
Quality 20 | Importance 21 | Overall 21 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | -6.5 | 72% | 31 |
| Texans | 28% | 3 |
Quality 11 | Importance 3 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 33% | 21 | |
| Patriots | -5 | 67% | 23 |
Quality 29 | Importance 89 | Overall 59 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 27% | 20 | |
| Eagles | -7 | 73% | 10 |
Quality 61 | Importance 33 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 42% | 6 | |
| Seahawks | -2 | 58% | 23 |
Quality 19 | Importance 96 | Overall 58 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -5.5 | 68% | 37 |
| Raiders | 32% | 34 |
Quality 44 | Importance 3 | Overall 24 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 28% | 10 | |
| Chargers | -6.5 | 72% | 31 |
Quality 28 | Importance 1 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -1 | 54% | 17 |
| Packers | 46% | 41 |
Quality 70 | Importance 92 | Overall 81 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 42% | 16 | |
| Ravens | -2.5 | 58% | 13 |
Quality 38 | Importance 46 | Overall 42 |
Week 16
Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | -0.5 | 52% | 19 |
| Jets | 48% | 3 |
Quality 32 | Importance 84 | Overall 58 |
Saturday, Dec. 24, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 25% | 9 | |
| Ravens | -7.5 | 75% | 17 |
Quality 6 | Importance 34 | Overall 20 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -10.5 | 82% | 35 |
| Bears | 18% | 13 |
Quality 60 | Importance 23 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -3.5 | 63% | 22 |
| Patriots | 37% | 18 |
Quality 82 | Importance 84 | Overall 83 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | PK | 50% | 23 |
| Panthers | 50% | 37 |
Quality 41 | Importance 92 | Overall 67 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 31% | 17 | |
| Browns | -5.5 | 69% | 10 |
Quality 41 | Importance 4 | Overall 23 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 29% | 24 | |
| Vikings | -6 | 71% | 27 |
Quality 58 | Importance 16 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 16% | 10 | |
| Chiefs | -12 | 84% | 24 |
Quality 78 | Importance 65 | Overall 72 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 25% | 19 | |
| Titans | -7.5 | 75% | 14 |
Quality 1 | Importance 4 | Overall 3 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 30% | 20 | |
| 49ers | -6 | 70% | 37 |
Quality 57 | Importance 62 | Overall 60 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 32% | 34 | |
| Cowboys | -5 | 68% | 40 |
Quality 94 | Importance 8 | Overall 51 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 48% | 10 | |
| Steelers | -0.5 | 52% | 13 |
Quality 37 | Importance 14 | Overall 26 |
Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 37% | 26 | |
| Dolphins | -3.5 | 63% | 20 |
Quality 49 | Importance 72 | Overall 61 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -1.5 | 54% | 14 |
| Rams | 46% | 51 |
Quality 4 | Importance 0 | Overall 2 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -7 | 73% | 19 |
| Cardinals | 27% | 16 |
Quality 1 | Importance 18 | Overall 10 |
Monday, Dec. 26, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 44% | 20 | |
| Colts | -1.5 | 56% | 3 |
Quality 40 | Importance 12 | Overall 26 |
Week 15
Thursday, Dec. 15, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | PK | 51% | 21 |
| Seahawks | 49% | 13 |
Quality 48 | Importance 86 | Overall 67 |
Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 32% | 36 | |
| Vikings | -5.5 | 68% | 39 |
Quality 53 | Importance 5 | Overall 29 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 37% | 3 | |
| Browns | -3.5 | 63% | 13 |
Quality 49 | Importance 33 | Overall 41 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 23% | 29 | |
| Bills | -8.5 | 77% | 32 |
Quality 90 | Importance 70 | Overall 80 |
Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 30% | 18 | |
| Saints | -6 | 70% | 21 |
Quality 5 | Importance 7 | Overall 6 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -7 | 74% | 34 |
| Jaguars | 26% | 40 |
Quality 80 | Importance 36 | Overall 58 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 49% | 20 | |
| Jets | PK | 51% | 17 |
Quality 35 | Importance 88 | Overall 62 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -13.5 | 88% | 30 |
| Texans | 12% | 24 |
Quality 25 | Importance 11 | Overall 18 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -9 | 78% | 25 |
| Bears | 22% | 20 |
Quality 60 | Importance 18 | Overall 39 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 39% | 24 | |
| Panthers | -3 | 61% | 16 |
Quality 36 | Importance 25 | Overall 31 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | -0.5 | 52% | 15 |
| Broncos | 48% | 24 |
Quality 0 | Importance 1 | Overall 1 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 49% | 24 | |
| Raiders | PK | 51% | 30 |
Quality 52 | Importance 67 | Overall 60 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -3.5 | 63% | 34 |
| Buccaneers | 37% | 23 |
Quality 75 | Importance 74 | Overall 75 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 47% | 14 | |
| Chargers | -1 | 53% | 17 |
Quality 51 | Importance 97 | Overall 74 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 31% | 20 | |
| Commanders | -5.5 | 69% | 12 |
Quality 33 | Importance 99 | Overall 66 |
Monday, Dec. 19, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 24% | 12 | |
| Packers | -8 | 76% | 24 |
Quality 11 | Importance 3 | Overall 7 |
Week 14
Thursday, Dec. 8, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | -4 | 69% | 16 |
| Rams | 31% | 17 |
Quality 12 | Importance 10 | Overall 11 |
Sunday, Dec. 11, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 44% | 16 | |
| Steelers | -1.5 | 56% | 14 |
Quality 26 | Importance 60 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 32% | 10 | |
| Bengals | -5 | 68% | 23 |
Quality 84 | Importance 69 | Overall 77 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 6% | 23 | |
| Cowboys | -18.5 | 94% | 27 |
Quality 27 | Importance 2 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 22% | 36 | |
| Titans | -9 | 78% | 22 |
Quality 38 | Importance 11 | Overall 25 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -3 | 61% | 23 |
| Lions | 39% | 34 |
Quality 59 | Importance 32 | Overall 46 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 18% | 12 | |
| Bills | -10.5 | 82% | 20 |
Quality 80 | Importance 62 | Overall 71 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -6.5 | 72% | 48 |
| Giants | 28% | 22 |
Quality 75 | Importance 86 | Overall 81 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -9 | 79% | 34 |
| Broncos | 21% | 28 |
Quality 60 | Importance 28 | Overall 44 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 30% | 30 | |
| Seahawks | -2.5 | 70% | 24 |
Quality 39 | Importance 50 | Overall 45 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 49% | 7 | |
| 49ers | -0.5 | 51% | 35 |
Quality 48 | Importance 51 | Overall 50 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -1.5 | 56% | 17 |
| Chargers | 44% | 23 |
Quality 52 | Importance 92 | Overall 72 |
Monday, Dec. 12, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 46% | 27 | |
| Cardinals | -1 | 54% | 13 |
Quality 36 | Importance 37 | Overall 37 |
Week 13
Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -3.5 | 62% | 24 |
| Patriots | 38% | 10 |
Quality 87 | Importance 90 | Overall 89 |
Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | -7.5 | 74% | 27 |
| Texans | 26% | 14 |
Quality 11 | Importance 3 | Overall 7 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 19% | 9 | |
| Ravens | -10.5 | 81% | 10 |
Quality 43 | Importance 12 | Overall 28 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 49% | 28 | |
| Bears | PK | 51% | 19 |
Quality 16 | Importance 3 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 44% | 14 | |
| Lions | -1.5 | 56% | 40 |
Quality 16 | Importance 16 | Overall 16 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 29% | 22 | |
| Vikings | -6 | 71% | 27 |
Quality 63 | Importance 54 | Overall 59 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 48% | 19 | |
| Falcons | -0.5 | 52% | 16 |
Quality 12 | Importance 25 | Overall 19 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 38% | 10 | |
| Eagles | -3.5 | 62% | 35 |
Quality 93 | Importance 47 | Overall 70 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 50% | 20 | |
| Giants | PK | 50% | 20 |
Quality 35 | Importance 99 | Overall 67 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 38% | 17 | |
| 49ers | -3.5 | 62% | 33 |
Quality 90 | Importance 39 | Overall 65 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | -4.5 | 66% | 27 |
| Rams | 34% | 23 |
Quality 7 | Importance 50 | Overall 29 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -2 | 57% | 24 |
| Bengals | 43% | 27 |
Quality 97 | Importance 91 | Overall 94 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 43% | 20 | |
| Raiders | -2 | 57% | 27 |
Quality 40 | Importance 80 | Overall 60 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 18% | 19 | |
| Cowboys | -10.5 | 82% | 54 |
Quality 82 | Importance 13 | Overall 48 |
Monday, Dec. 5, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 32% | 16 | |
| Buccaneers | -5.5 | 68% | 17 |
Quality 36 | Importance 78 | Overall 57 |
Week 12
Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -7 | 74% | 28 |
| Lions | 26% | 25 |
Quality 66 | Importance 47 | Overall 57 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 17% | 20 | |
| Cowboys | -11 | 83% | 28 |
Quality 77 | Importance 40 | Overall 59 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 39% | 26 | |
| Vikings | -3 | 61% | 33 |
Quality 69 | Importance 61 | Overall 65 |
Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 32% | 13 | |
| Commanders | -5 | 68% | 19 |
Quality 22 | Importance 87 | Overall 55 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -4.5 | 65% | 27 |
| Jaguars | 35% | 28 |
Quality 52 | Importance 15 | Overall 34 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 34% | 10 | |
| Jets | -4.5 | 66% | 31 |
Quality 10 | Importance 20 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 37% | 20 | |
| Titans | -3.5 | 63% | 16 |
Quality 89 | Importance 47 | Overall 68 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 39% | 10 | |
| Panthers | -3 | 61% | 23 |
Quality 16 | Importance 3 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 10% | 15 | |
| Dolphins | -14 | 90% | 30 |
Quality 19 | Importance 4 | Overall 12 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -3 | 60% | 17 |
| Browns | 40% | 23 |
Quality 44 | Importance 35 | Overall 40 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 45% | 25 | |
| Cardinals | -1.5 | 55% | 24 |
Quality 30 | Importance 36 | Overall 33 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 30% | 40 | |
| Seahawks | -6 | 70% | 34 |
Quality 39 | Importance 28 | Overall 34 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 6% | 10 | |
| Chiefs | -18.5 | 94% | 26 |
Quality 28 | Importance 5 | Overall 17 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 22% | 0 | |
| 49ers | -8.5 | 78% | 13 |
Quality 59 | Importance 32 | Overall 46 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 24% | 33 | |
| Eagles | -8 | 76% | 40 |
Quality 68 | Importance 43 | Overall 56 |
Monday, Nov. 28, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 29% | 24 | |
| Colts | -6.5 | 71% | 17 |
Quality 25 | Importance 10 | Overall 18 |
Week 11
Thursday, Nov. 17, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | -2.5 | 58% | 27 |
| Packers | 42% | 17 |
Quality 67 | Importance 31 | Overall 49 |
Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 18% | 3 | |
| Ravens | -10.5 | 82% | 13 |
Quality 51 | Importance 13 | Overall 32 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 49% | 24 | |
| Falcons | PK | 51% | 27 |
Quality 12 | Importance 16 | Overall 14 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 17% | 23 | |
| Bills | -11 | 83% | 31 |
Quality 68 | Importance 28 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 29% | 31 | |
| Giants | -6 | 71% | 18 |
Quality 20 | Importance 36 | Overall 28 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 46% | 20 | |
| Saints | -1 | 54% | 27 |
Quality 16 | Importance 13 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 39% | 3 | |
| Patriots | -3 | 61% | 10 |
Quality 49 | Importance 95 | Overall 72 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -1.5 | 56% | 17 |
| Colts | 44% | 16 |
Quality 78 | Importance 85 | Overall 82 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | -4 | 64% | 23 |
| Texans | 36% | 10 |
Quality 5 | Importance 22 | Overall 14 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 39% | 22 | |
| Broncos | -3 | 61% | 16 |
Quality 16 | Importance 4 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -5.5 | 68% | 37 |
| Steelers | 32% | 30 |
Quality 39 | Importance 47 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 46% | 40 | |
| Vikings | -1 | 54% | 3 |
Quality 93 | Importance 73 | Overall 83 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -6 | 70% | 30 |
| Chargers | 30% | 27 |
Quality 83 | Importance 85 | Overall 84 |
Monday, Nov. 21, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -6.5 | 72% | 38 |
| Cardinals | 28% | 10 |
Quality 46 | Importance 64 | Overall 55 |
Week 10
Thursday, Nov. 10, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | -1 | 53% | 15 |
| Panthers | 47% | 25 |
Quality 4 | Importance 46 | Overall 25 |
Sunday, Nov. 13, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | -0.5 | 51% | 16 |
| Buccaneers | 49% | 21 |
Quality 63 | Importance 71 | Overall 67 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 31% | 17 | |
| Dolphins | -5.5 | 69% | 39 |
Quality 51 | Importance 66 | Overall 59 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 31% | 10 | |
| Titans | -5.5 | 69% | 17 |
Quality 57 | Importance 16 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 35% | 31 | |
| Bears | -4.5 | 65% | 30 |
Quality 10 | Importance 9 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 20% | 16 | |
| Giants | -10 | 80% | 24 |
Quality 7 | Importance 12 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 15% | 17 | |
| Chiefs | -12 | 85% | 27 |
Quality 68 | Importance 16 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 31% | 33 | |
| Bills | -5.5 | 69% | 30 |
Quality 95 | Importance 52 | Overall 74 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 47% | 10 | |
| Steelers | -1 | 53% | 20 |
Quality 11 | Importance 13 | Overall 12 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 35% | 25 | |
| Raiders | -0.5 | 65% | 20 |
Quality 29 | Importance 9 | Overall 19 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 48% | 27 | |
| Rams | -0.5 | 52% | 17 |
Quality 2 | Importance 39 | Overall 21 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | -7 | 73% | 28 |
| Packers | 27% | 31 |
Quality 74 | Importance 20 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 30% | 16 | |
| 49ers | -6 | 70% | 22 |
Quality 66 | Importance 63 | Overall 65 |
Monday, Nov. 14, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 16% | 32 | |
| Eagles | -11.5 | 84% | 21 |
Quality 65 | Importance 32 | Overall 49 |
Week 9
Thursday, Nov. 3, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -10.5 | 82% | 29 |
| Texans | 18% | 17 |
Quality 35 | Importance 13 | Overall 24 |
Sunday, Nov. 6, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -8 | 76% | 17 |
| Jets | 24% | 20 |
Quality 82 | Importance 66 | Overall 74 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 21% | 21 | |
| Bengals | -9.5 | 79% | 42 |
Quality 25 | Importance 24 | Overall 25 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -3.5 | 62% | 9 |
| Lions | 38% | 15 |
Quality 13 | Importance 17 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 30% | 3 | |
| Patriots | -6 | 70% | 26 |
Quality 22 | Importance 58 | Overall 40 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -1 | 53% | 20 |
| Falcons | 47% | 17 |
Quality 30 | Importance 82 | Overall 56 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -2.5 | 59% | 35 |
| Bears | 41% | 32 |
Quality 42 | Importance 43 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -3.5 | 63% | 20 |
| Commanders | 37% | 17 |
Quality 51 | Importance 34 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 49% | 20 | |
| Jaguars | PK | 51% | 27 |
Quality 14 | Importance 25 | Overall 20 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 47% | 31 | |
| Cardinals | -0.5 | 53% | 21 |
Quality 40 | Importance 77 | Overall 59 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 37% | 13 | |
| Buccaneers | -3.5 | 63% | 16 |
Quality 47 | Importance 76 | Overall 62 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 22% | 17 | |
| Chiefs | -9 | 78% | 20 |
Quality 86 | Importance 37 | Overall 62 |
Monday, Nov. 7, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -2.5 | 59% | 27 |
| Saints | 41% | 13 |
Quality 60 | Importance 55 | Overall 58 |
Week 8
Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | 46% | 27 | |
| Buccaneers | -1 | 54% | 22 |
Quality 72 | Importance 66 | Overall 69 |
Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -1.5 | 55% | 21 |
| Jaguars | 45% | 17 |
Quality 18 | Importance 18 | Overall 18 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 27% | 26 | |
| Vikings | -7 | 73% | 34 |
Quality 59 | Importance 36 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 36% | 34 | |
| Falcons | -4 | 64% | 37 |
Quality 6 | Importance 66 | Overall 36 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 18% | 29 | |
| Cowboys | -10.5 | 82% | 49 |
Quality 63 | Importance 23 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -4.5 | 66% | 31 |
| Lions | 34% | 27 |
Quality 19 | Importance 31 | Overall 25 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 44% | 22 | |
| Jets | -1.5 | 56% | 17 |
Quality 38 | Importance 88 | Overall 63 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | -0.5 | 52% | 0 |
| Saints | 48% | 24 |
Quality 28 | Importance 45 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 14% | 13 | |
| Eagles | -13 | 86% | 35 |
Quality 52 | Importance 10 | Overall 31 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | -4 | 65% | 17 |
| Texans | 35% | 10 |
Quality 15 | Importance 29 | Overall 22 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 48% | 13 | |
| Seahawks | -0.5 | 52% | 27 |
Quality 47 | Importance 79 | Overall 63 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 42% | 31 | |
| Rams | -2.5 | 58% | 14 |
Quality 59 | Importance 93 | Overall 76 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 46% | 17 | |
| Colts | -1 | 54% | 16 |
Quality 10 | Importance 48 | Overall 29 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 16% | 17 | |
| Bills | -11.5 | 84% | 27 |
Quality 89 | Importance 31 | Overall 60 |
Monday, Oct. 31, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -6.5 | 72% | 13 |
| Browns | 28% | 32 |
Quality 44 | Importance 53 | Overall 49 |
Week 7
Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 38% | 34 | |
| Cardinals | -3.5 | 62% | 42 |
Quality 21 | Importance 41 | Overall 31 |
Sunday, Oct. 23, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 25% | 17 | |
| Bengals | -7.5 | 75% | 35 |
Quality 51 | Importance 53 | Overall 52 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 22% | 20 | |
| Ravens | -8.5 | 78% | 23 |
Quality 35 | Importance 51 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 16% | 6 | |
| Cowboys | -11.5 | 84% | 24 |
Quality 45 | Importance 11 | Overall 28 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -2.5 | 58% | 21 |
| Commanders | 42% | 23 |
Quality 25 | Importance 55 | Overall 40 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 38% | 10 | |
| Titans | -3.5 | 62% | 19 |
Quality 62 | Importance 96 | Overall 79 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | PK | 51% | 23 |
| Jaguars | 49% | 17 |
Quality 29 | Importance 55 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -9.5 | 79% | 3 |
| Panthers | 21% | 21 |
Quality 18 | Importance 21 | Overall 20 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 27% | 20 | |
| Raiders | -6.5 | 73% | 38 |
Quality 12 | Importance 14 | Overall 13 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | -2.5 | 58% | 16 |
| Broncos | 42% | 9 |
Quality 7 | Importance 65 | Overall 36 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -0.5 | 51% | 44 |
| 49ers | 49% | 23 |
Quality 88 | Importance 61 | Overall 75 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 30% | 37 | |
| Chargers | -6 | 70% | 23 |
Quality 39 | Importance 57 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 28% | 10 | |
| Dolphins | -6.5 | 72% | 16 |
Quality 27 | Importance 44 | Overall 36 |
Monday, Oct. 24, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 22% | 33 | |
| Patriots | -9 | 78% | 14 |
Quality 25 | Importance 22 | Overall 24 |
Week 6
Thursday, Oct. 13, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 44% | 12 | |
| Bears | -1.5 | 56% | 7 |
Quality 7 | Importance 17 | Overall 12 |
Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -2.5 | 59% | 20 |
| Giants | 41% | 24 |
Quality 63 | Importance 64 | Overall 64 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -2.5 | 58% | 30 |
| Saints | 42% | 26 |
Quality 46 | Importance 65 | Overall 56 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 36% | 27 | |
| Colts | -4 | 64% | 34 |
Quality 31 | Importance 83 | Overall 57 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -5.5 | 69% | 24 |
| Dolphins | 31% | 16 |
Quality 25 | Importance 54 | Overall 40 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 41% | 38 | |
| Browns | -2.5 | 59% | 15 |
Quality 18 | Importance 75 | Overall 47 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 24% | 27 | |
| Packers | -8 | 76% | 10 |
Quality 41 | Importance 41 | Overall 41 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -6.5 | 72% | 14 |
| Falcons | 28% | 28 |
Quality 41 | Importance 39 | Overall 40 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -7 | 73% | 18 |
| Steelers | 27% | 20 |
Quality 43 | Importance 13 | Overall 28 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | -1 | 53% | 9 |
| Seahawks | 47% | 19 |
Quality 25 | Importance 62 | Overall 44 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 20% | 10 | |
| Rams | -10 | 80% | 24 |
Quality 7 | Importance 16 | Overall 12 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 50% | 24 | |
| Chiefs | PK | 50% | 20 |
Quality 99 | Importance 99 | Overall 99 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 27% | 17 | |
| Eagles | -7 | 73% | 26 |
Quality 81 | Importance 93 | Overall 87 |
Monday, Oct. 17, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 36% | 16 | |
| Chargers | -4 | 64% | 19 |
Quality 49 | Importance 84 | Overall 67 |
Week 5
Thursday, Oct. 6, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | 40% | 12 | |
| Broncos | -3 | 60% | 9 |
Quality 44 | Importance 79 | Overall 62 |
Sunday, Oct. 9, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 30% | 27 | |
| Packers | -6 | 70% | 22 |
Quality 56 | Importance 67 | Overall 62 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 18% | 15 | |
| Buccaneers | -10.5 | 82% | 21 |
Quality 44 | Importance 45 | Overall 45 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 24% | 22 | |
| Vikings | -8 | 76% | 29 |
Quality 31 | Importance 51 | Overall 41 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 46% | 0 | |
| Patriots | -1 | 54% | 29 |
Quality 8 | Importance 33 | Overall 21 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 23% | 13 | |
| Jaguars | -8.5 | 77% | 6 |
Quality 7 | Importance 22 | Overall 15 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -0.5 | 52% | 30 |
| Browns | 48% | 28 |
Quality 38 | Importance 88 | Overall 63 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -4 | 64% | 17 |
| Jets | 36% | 40 |
Quality 20 | Importance 50 | Overall 35 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 12% | 3 | |
| Bills | -13.5 | 88% | 38 |
Quality 58 | Importance 10 | Overall 34 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 43% | 32 | |
| Saints | -2 | 57% | 39 |
Quality 15 | Importance 48 | Overall 32 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | -2.5 | 59% | 21 |
| Commanders | 41% | 17 |
Quality 31 | Importance 46 | Overall 39 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -5.5 | 70% | 37 |
| Panthers | 30% | 15 |
Quality 36 | Importance 40 | Overall 38 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 34% | 22 | |
| Rams | -4.5 | 66% | 10 |
Quality 51 | Importance 71 | Overall 61 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -2.5 | 58% | 20 |
| Cardinals | 42% | 17 |
Quality 75 | Importance 82 | Overall 79 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | 40% | 17 | |
| Ravens | -3 | 60% | 19 |
Quality 81 | Importance 96 | Overall 89 |
Monday, Oct. 10, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 22% | 29 | |
| Chiefs | -8.5 | 78% | 30 |
Quality 75 | Importance 52 | Overall 64 |
Week 4
Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | -0.5 | 51% | 15 |
| Bengals | 49% | 27 |
Quality 77 | Importance 73 | Overall 75 |
Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -4.5 | 66% | 28 |
| Saints | 34% | 25 |
Quality 37 | Importance 68 | Overall 53 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -1 | 54% | 23 |
| Ravens | 46% | 20 |
Quality 96 | Importance 79 | Overall 88 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 42% | 12 | |
| Giants | -2.5 | 58% | 20 |
Quality 12 | Importance 65 | Overall 39 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | -1 | 53% | 20 |
| Falcons | 47% | 23 |
Quality 13 | Importance 49 | Overall 31 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 28% | 21 | |
| Eagles | -6.5 | 72% | 29 |
Quality 74 | Importance 50 | Overall 62 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -4 | 64% | 34 |
| Texans | 36% | 24 |
Quality 12 | Importance 30 | Overall 21 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 29% | 24 | |
| Steelers | -6 | 71% | 20 |
Quality 6 | Importance 13 | Overall 10 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 39% | 48 | |
| Lions | -3 | 61% | 45 |
Quality 10 | Importance 42 | Overall 26 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 43% | 24 | |
| Colts | -2 | 57% | 17 |
Quality 49 | Importance 88 | Overall 69 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | 42% | 10 | |
| Cowboys | -2 | 58% | 25 |
Quality 19 | Importance 81 | Overall 50 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | -0.5 | 51% | 26 |
| Panthers | 49% | 16 |
Quality 20 | Importance 53 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -0.5 | 53% | 23 |
| Raiders | 47% | 32 |
Quality 41 | Importance 68 | Overall 55 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 27% | 24 | |
| Packers | -7 | 73% | 27 |
Quality 61 | Importance 45 | Overall 53 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 41% | 41 | |
| Buccaneers | -2.5 | 59% | 31 |
Quality 94 | Importance 45 | Overall 70 |
Monday, Oct. 3, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 45% | 9 | |
| 49ers | -1.5 | 55% | 24 |
Quality 78 | Importance 94 | Overall 86 |
Week 3
Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 50% | 17 | |
| Browns | PK | 50% | 29 |
Quality 22 | Importance 81 | Overall 52 |
Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | PK | 51% | 37 |
| Patriots | 49% | 26 |
Quality 67 | Importance 85 | Overall 76 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | -2 | 57% | 19 |
| Dolphins | 43% | 21 |
Quality 95 | Importance 96 | Overall 96 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -2 | 56% | 27 |
| Jets | 44% | 12 |
Quality 25 | Importance 36 | Overall 31 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 30% | 24 | |
| Vikings | -6 | 70% | 28 |
Quality 36 | Importance 71 | Overall 54 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 34% | 20 | |
| Bears | -4.5 | 66% | 23 |
Quality 4 | Importance 28 | Overall 16 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -4.5 | 66% | 17 |
| Colts | 34% | 20 |
Quality 75 | Importance 54 | Overall 65 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -2 | 58% | 14 |
| Panthers | 42% | 22 |
Quality 19 | Importance 55 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 38% | 22 | |
| Titans | -3.5 | 62% | 24 |
Quality 34 | Importance 49 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -2.5 | 59% | 24 |
| Commanders | 41% | 8 |
Quality 62 | Importance 83 | Overall 73 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 26% | 38 | |
| Chargers | -7 | 74% | 10 |
Quality 46 | Importance 55 | Overall 51 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 35% | 27 | |
| Seahawks | -4.5 | 65% | 23 |
Quality 5 | Importance 26 | Overall 16 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | 33% | 14 | |
| Buccaneers | -5 | 67% | 12 |
Quality 91 | Importance 66 | Overall 79 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | PK | 51% | 20 |
| Cardinals | 49% | 12 |
Quality 60 | Importance 88 | Overall 74 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 49% | 10 | |
| Broncos | PK | 51% | 11 |
Quality 71 | Importance 68 | Overall 70 |
Monday, Sept. 26, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 34% | 23 | |
| Giants | -4.5 | 66% | 16 |
Quality 14 | Importance 82 | Overall 48 |
Week 2
Thursday, Sept. 15, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | 33% | 24 | |
| Chiefs | -5 | 67% | 27 |
Quality 90 | Importance 92 | Overall 91 |
Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 36% | 16 | |
| Giants | -4 | 64% | 19 |
Quality 13 | Importance 53 | Overall 33 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -4 | 65% | 0 |
| Jaguars | 35% | 24 |
Quality 26 | Importance 60 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 40% | 42 | |
| Ravens | -3 | 60% | 38 |
Quality 74 | Importance 78 | Overall 76 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 42% | 17 | |
| Steelers | -2 | 58% | 14 |
Quality 45 | Importance 74 | Overall 60 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | 38% | 31 | |
| Browns | -3.5 | 62% | 30 |
Quality 9 | Importance 38 | Overall 24 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | -2 | 58% | 20 |
| Saints | 42% | 10 |
Quality 82 | Importance 93 | Overall 88 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | -1.5 | 56% | 27 |
| Lions | 44% | 36 |
Quality 21 | Importance 63 | Overall 42 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | 21% | 27 | |
| Rams | -9 | 79% | 31 |
Quality 24 | Importance 31 | Overall 28 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | 31% | 7 | |
| 49ers | -5.5 | 69% | 27 |
Quality 36 | Importance 77 | Overall 57 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 42% | 29 | |
| Raiders | -2 | 58% | 23 |
Quality 34 | Importance 51 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | -4.5 | 66% | 17 |
| Cowboys | 34% | 20 |
Quality 19 | Importance 53 | Overall 36 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | 24% | 9 | |
| Broncos | -8 | 76% | 16 |
Quality 20 | Importance 33 | Overall 27 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | 27% | 10 | |
| Packers | -7 | 73% | 27 |
Quality 46 | Importance 67 | Overall 57 |
Monday, Sept. 19, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 24% | 7 | |
| Bills | -8 | 76% | 41 |
Quality 86 | Importance 42 | Overall 64 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | 45% | 7 | |
| Eagles | -1.5 | 55% | 24 |
Quality 76 | Importance 66 | Overall 71 |
Week 1
Thursday, Sept. 8, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | 47% | 31 | |
| Rams | -1 | 53% | 10 |
Quality 91 | Importance 59 | Overall 75 |
Sunday, Sept. 11, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | -3.5 | 62% | 24 |
| Jets | 38% | 9 |
Quality 34 | Importance 51 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | 43% | 26 | |
| Panthers | -2 | 57% | 24 |
Quality 10 | Importance 48 | Overall 29 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | -5 | 67% | 20 |
| Texans | 33% | 20 |
Quality 21 | Importance 51 | Overall 36 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | 32% | 22 | |
| Commanders | -5.5 | 68% | 28 |
Quality 18 | Importance 41 | Overall 30 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 42% | 7 | |
| Dolphins | -2.5 | 58% | 20 |
Quality 56 | Importance 85 | Overall 71 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | -4 | 64% | 27 |
| Falcons | 36% | 26 |
Quality 19 | Importance 54 | Overall 37 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | -2.5 | 60% | 38 |
| Lions | 40% | 35 |
Quality 33 | Importance 64 | Overall 49 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | 32% | 23 | |
| Bengals | -5 | 68% | 20 |
Quality 56 | Importance 75 | Overall 66 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | -3.5 | 63% | 10 |
| Bears | 37% | 19 |
Quality 37 | Importance 59 | Overall 48 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | -1 | 53% | 7 |
| Vikings | 47% | 23 |
Quality 79 | Importance 93 | Overall 86 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | -2 | 57% | 44 |
| Cardinals | 43% | 21 |
Quality 72 | Importance 64 | Overall 68 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | 31% | 21 | |
| Titans | -5.5 | 69% | 20 |
Quality 36 | Importance 50 | Overall 43 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 36% | 19 | |
| Chargers | -4 | 64% | 24 |
Quality 59 | Importance 79 | Overall 69 |
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | 49% | 19 | |
| Cowboys | PK | 51% | 3 |
Quality 84 | Importance 67 | Overall 76 |
Monday, Sept. 12, 2022
| FINAL Eastern | Elo point spread | Win prob. | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | -2 | 57% | 16 |
| Seahawks | 43% | 17 |
Quality 34 | Importance 60 | Overall 47 |
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