UPDATED May 15, 2022, at 5:19 PM

2022 WNBA Predictions

Updated after every game.

Highest quality

By the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings

Tuesday, May 31 · 10 p.m. EDT

10 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Sun		36%
Aces	-3.5	64%

quality			importance			overall
	93			28			60

Most important

By how much the result will alter league projections

Sunday, May 29 · 7 p.m.

7 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Sparks		39%
Lynx	-2.5	61%

quality			importance			overall
	37			84			60

Best overall matchup

By the average of quality and importance

Sunday, May 29 · 7 p.m.

7 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Sparks		39%
Lynx	-2.5	61%

quality			importance			overall
	37			84			60

Games in the next two weeks of the WNBA regular season with the highest impact based on matchup ratings on a scale of 0-100.

Upcoming games

Tuesday, May 17

7 p.m. Eastern	elo spread	win prob.
Sun	-4	66%
Liberty		34%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	37			28			32

7 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Dream		44%
Fever	-1.5	56%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	6			75			40

8 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Mystics		40%
Wings	-2.5	60%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	43			66			54

10 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Mercury		31%
Aces	-5	69%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	88			15			51

10:30 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Lynx		38%
Sparks	-3	62%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	37			77			57

Wednesday, May 18

10 p.m. Eastern	elo spread	win prob.
Sky		49%
Storm	-0.5	51%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	74			41			57

Thursday, May 19

10 p.m. Eastern	elo spread	win prob.
Wings		31%
Mercury	-5	69%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	59			42			50

10 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Lynx		24%
Aces	-7.5	76%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	72			31			51

Friday, May 20

7 p.m. Eastern	elo spread	win prob.
Fever		18%
Sun	-9.5	82%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	38			19			28

7:30 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Mystics		48%
Dream	-0.5	52%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	26			74			50

10 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Sparks		36%
Storm	-3.5	64%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	47			72			59

Saturday, May 21

3 p.m. Eastern	elo spread	win prob.
Mercury		31%
Aces	-5	69%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	88			17			52

8 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Lynx		38%
Wings	-3	62%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	38			78			58

Sunday, May 22

2 p.m. Eastern	elo spread	win prob.
Sun	-4	65%
Fever		35%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	38			43			40

3 p.m.	elo spread	win prob.
Sky		51%
Mystics	PK	49%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	70			41			55

Monday, May 23

10 p.m. Eastern	elo spread	win prob.
Sparks		24%
Aces	-7	76%

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result will alter league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	74			25			49

Completed games

Sunday, May 15

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Dream		40%	✓85
Fever	-2.5	60%	79

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	6			80			43

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Wings		48%	✓81
Liberty	-0.5	52%	71

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	14			76			45

Saturday, May 14

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Sky		50%	✓82
Lynx	PK	50%	78

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	66			59			62

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Sparks		29%	60
Sun	-5.5	71%	✓77

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	69			32			50

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Mercury		41%	✓69
Storm	-2.5	59%	64

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	65			51			58

Friday, May 13

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Fever		35%	✓92
Liberty	-4	65%	86

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	5			70			37

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Aces	-2.5	59%	✓96
Dream		41%	73

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	55			43			49

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Wings		30%	✓94
Mystics	-5	70%	86

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	37			54			45

Wednesday, May 11

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Storm		41%	77
Mercury	-2	59%	✓97

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	65			55			60

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Liberty		24%	50
Sky	-7	76%	✓83

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	45			48			46

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Sparks		49%	75
Dream	-0.5	51%	✓77

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	28			68			48

Tuesday, May 10

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Aces	-1	54%	76
Mystics		46%	✓89

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	77			35			56

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Lynx	-1.5	56%	76
Fever		44%	✓82

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	15			62			38

Sunday, May 8

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Storm		32%	74
Aces	-4.5	68%	✓85

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	86			19			52

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Mystics		31%	✓78
Lynx	-5	69%	66

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	48			63			55

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Sparks	-0.5	52%	✓87
Fever		48%	77

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	15			69			42

Saturday, May 7

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Dream		31%	✓66
Wings	-5	69%	59

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	15			67			41

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Sun	-2.5	61%	79
Liberty		39%	✓81

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	50			47			48

🏀 More WNBA coverage 🏀