UPDATED Sep. 18, 2022, at 6:18 PM

2022 WNBA Predictions

Updated after every game.

The

Phoenix Mercury lost in the first round of the 2022 WNBA Playoffs

100%

chance of making the playoffs

0%

chance of making the finals

0%

chance of winning the finals

Probabilities by final position

make playoffs

miss playoffs

Team rating

Mercury Elo over the 2022 WNBA season, along with the top and bottom team Elo ratings

Historical team rating

Mercury Elo rating after every game since {year}

Game 2 • FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Mercury		11%	80
Aces2-0	-12.5	89%	✓117

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	71			67			69

Game 1 • FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Mercury		12%	63
Aces1-0	-12.5	88%	✓79

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	71			79			75

FINAL	elo spread	win prob.	score
Sky	-2.5	60%	✓82
Mercury		40%	67

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings			importance How much the result altered league projections			overall The average of quality and importance
	68			4			36

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