2022 World Cup Predictions

Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings and chances of advancing for every team, updating live.

How this worksESPN coverage

Team RatingChance of finishing group stage in ...Knockout stage chances
TeamGroupSPIOff.Def.1st
Place
2nd
Place
Make
Round of 16
Make
Rd. of 16
Make Quarter-
finals
Make Qtr.-
finals
Make
Semi-finals
Make
Final
Win
World cup
Argentina
C89.6
2.8
0.4
France
D88.3
3.0
0.5
Croatia
F78.8
2.2
0.6
Morocco
F73.2
1.7
0.5
Brazil
G93.2
3.1
0.3
England
B87.8
2.7
0.4
Portugal
H87.0
2.8
0.5
Netherlands
A84.0
2.5
0.5
Spain
E88.5
2.6
0.3
Switzerland
G76.4
2.2
0.7
Japan
E76.0
2.0
0.6
Senegal
A74.4
2.0
0.6
USA
B73.4
2.0
0.7
South Korea
H72.4
2.0
0.7
Poland
C68.0
1.8
0.8
Australia
D64.3
1.6
0.8
Germany
E90.0
3.4
0.7
Belgium
F80.9
2.4
0.7
Uruguay
H79.2
2.1
0.5
Denmark
D76.7
2.0
0.6
Mexico
C74.1
1.9
0.6
Serbia
G73.9
2.2
0.9
Ecuador
A73.8
1.9
0.6
Canada
F71.8
2.0
0.7
Iran
B68.3
1.7
0.7
Tunisia
D67.8
1.6
0.6
Cameroon
G66.4
1.8
0.8
Wales
B62.5
1.6
0.8
Ghana
H60.6
1.6
0.9
Saudi Arabia
C60.4
1.6
1.0
Costa Rica
E52.7
1.4
1.1
Qatar
A48.2
1.4
1.2
Forecast from

Completed matches

Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022

Final • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Argentina3 (4)100%
France3 (2)0%
halfextra timepks50 100%

Saturday, Dec. 17, 2022

Third-place match • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Croatia2100%
Morocco10%
half50 100%

Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2022

Semifinal • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
France2100%
Morocco00%
half50 100%

Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2022

Semifinal • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Argentina3100%
Croatia00%
half50 100%

Saturday, Dec. 10, 2022

Quarterfinal • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Morocco1100%
Portugal00%
half50 100%
Quarterfinal • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
England10%
France2100%
half50 100%

Friday, Dec. 9, 2022

Quarterfinal • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Croatia1 (4)100%
Brazil1 (2)0%
halfextra timepks50 100%
Quarterfinal • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Netherlands2 (3)0%
Argentina2 (4)100%
halfextra timepks50 100%

Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2022

Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Morocco0 (3)100%
Spain0 (0)0%
halfextra timepks50 100%
Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Portugal6100%
Switzerland10%
half50 100%

Monday, Dec. 5, 2022

Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Japan1 (1)0%
Croatia1 (3)100%
halfextra timepks50 100%
Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Brazil4100%
South Korea10%
half50 100%

Sunday, Dec. 4, 2022

Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
France3100%
Poland10%
half50 100%
Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
England3100%
Senegal00%
half50 100%

Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022

Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Netherlands3100%
USA10%
half50 100%
Round of 16 • Full-timeScore Win Prob.
Argentina2100%
Australia10%
half50 100%

Friday, Dec. 2, 2022

Group H • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Ghana00%0%
Uruguay2100%
half50 100%
Group H • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
South Korea2100%0%
Portugal10%
half50 100%
Group G • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Serbia20%0%
Switzerland3100%
half50 100%
Group G • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Cameroon1100%0%
Brazil00%
half50 100%

Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022

Group F • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Canada10%0%
Morocco2100%
half50 100%
Group F • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Croatia00%100%
Belgium00%
half50 100%
Group E • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Costa Rica20%0%
Germany4100%
half50 100%
Group E • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Japan2100%0%
Spain10%
half50 100%

Wednesday, Nov. 30, 2022

Group D • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Tunisia1100%0%
France00%
half50 100%
Group D • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Australia1100%0%
Denmark00%
half50 100%
Group C • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Poland00%0%
Argentina2100%
half50 100%
Group C • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Saudi Arabia10%0%
Mexico2100%
half50 100%

Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2022

Group A • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Netherlands2100%0%
Qatar00%
half50 100%
Group A • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Ecuador10%0%
Senegal2100%
half50 100%
Group B • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Iran00%0%
USA1100%
half50 100%
Group B • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Wales00%0%
England3100%
half50 100%

Monday, Nov. 28, 2022

Group G • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Cameroon30%100%
Serbia30%
half50 100%
Group H • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
South Korea20%0%
Ghana3100%
half50 100%
Group G • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Brazil1100%0%
Switzerland00%
half50 100%
Group H • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Portugal2100%0%
Uruguay00%
half50 100%

Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022

Group E • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Japan00%0%
Costa Rica1100%
half50 100%
Group F • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Belgium00%0%
Morocco2100%
half50 100%
Group F • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Croatia4100%0%
Canada10%
half50 100%
Group E • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Spain10%100%
Germany10%
half50 100%

Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022

Group D • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Tunisia00%0%
Australia1100%
half50 100%
Group C • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Poland2100%0%
Saudi Arabia00%
half50 100%
Group D • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
France2100%0%
Denmark10%
half50 100%
Group C • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Argentina2100%0%
Mexico00%
half50 100%

Friday, Nov. 25, 2022

Group B • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Wales00%0%
Iran2100%
half50 100%
Group A • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Qatar10%0%
Senegal3100%
half50 100%
Group A • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Netherlands10%100%
Ecuador10%
half50 100%
Group B • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
England00%100%
USA00%
half50 100%

Thursday, Nov. 24, 2022

Group G • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Switzerland1100%0%
Cameroon00%
half50 100%
Group H • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Uruguay00%100%
South Korea00%
half50 100%
Group H • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Portugal3100%0%
Ghana20%
half50 100%
Group G • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Brazil2100%0%
Serbia00%
half50 100%

Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2022

Group F • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Morocco00%100%
Croatia00%
half50 100%
Group E • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Germany10%0%
Japan2100%
half50 100%
Group E • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Spain7100%0%
Costa Rica00%
half50 100%
Group F • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Belgium1100%0%
Canada00%
half50 100%

Tuesday, Nov. 22, 2022

Group C • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Argentina10%0%
Saudi Arabia2100%
half50 100%
Group D • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Denmark00%100%
Tunisia00%
half50 100%
Group C • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Mexico00%100%
Poland00%
half50 100%
Group D • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
France4100%0%
Australia10%
half50 100%

Monday, Nov. 21, 2022

Group B • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
England6100%0%
Iran20%
half50 100%
Group A • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Senegal00%0%
Netherlands2100%
half50 100%
Group B • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
USA10%100%
Wales10%
half50 100%

Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022

Group A • Full-timeScore Win Prob.Draw
Qatar00%0%
Ecuador2100%
half50 100%

Please visit this page on a desktop computer to make your own bracket.

1 Select the first- and second-place finishers in each group to advance to the knockout stage
Hover over a team's name to see its chances of reaching each possible match

Group A1st place2nd place
Qatar
Ecuador
Senegal
Netherlands
Group B1st place2nd place
England
Iran
USA
Wales
Group C1st place2nd place
Argentina
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
Poland
Group D1st place2nd place
France
Denmark
Tunisia
Australia
Group E1st place2nd place
Spain
Germany
Japan
Costa Rica
Group F1st place2nd place
Belgium
Canada
Morocco
Croatia
Group G1st place2nd place
Brazil
Serbia
Switzerland
Cameroon
Group H1st place2nd place
Portugal
Ghana
Uruguay
South Korea

2 Click on a team to advance it to the next match
Hover over a match to see teams' chances of reaching it

  • Group A

    1st place

  • Group B

    2nd place

  • Group C

    1st place

  • Group D

    2nd place

  • Group E

    1st place

  • Group F

    2nd place

  • Group G

    1st place

  • Group H

    2nd place

  •  
  • Netherlands

  • Round of 16

    December 3

  • USA

  •  
  • Argentina

  • Round of 16

    December 3

  • Australia

  •  
  • Japan

  • Round of 16

    December 5

  • Croatia

  •  
  • Brazil

  • Round of 16

    December 5

  • South Korea

  •  
  •  
  • Netherlands

  • Quarterfinal

    December 9

  • Argentina

  •  
  • Croatia

  • Quarterfinal

    December 9

  • Brazil

  •  
  •  
  • Argentina

  • Semifinal

    December 13

  • Croatia

  •  
  • World Cup champion

    Argentina

  • Argentina

  • Final

    December 18

  • France

  •  
  •  
  • France

  • Semifinal

    December 14

  • Morocco

  •  
  •  
  • England

  • Quarterfinal

    December 10

  • France

  •  
  • Morocco

  • Quarterfinal

    December 10

  • Portugal

  •  
  •  
  • Senegal

  • Round of 16

    December 4

  • England

  •  
  • Poland

  • Round of 16

    December 4

  • France

  •  
  • Spain

  • Round of 16

    December 6

  • Morocco

  •  
  • Switzerland

  • Round of 16

    December 6

  • Portugal

  •  
  • Group A

    2nd place

  • Group B

    1st place

  • Group C

    2nd place

  • Group D

    1st place

  • Group E

    2nd place

  • Group F

    1st place

  • Group G

    2nd place

  • Group H

    1st place