2023 MLB Predictions
Updated after every game.
| Avg. Simulated SeasonAvg. Simulation | Postseason Chances | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team ▲ ▼ | Division ▲ ▼ | Team rating ▲ ▼ | 1-Week Change ▲ ▼ | RecordProj. rec. ▲ ▼ | Run Diff. ▲ ▼ | Make PlayoffsMake Play- offs ▲ ▼ | Win DivisionWin Div. ▲ ▼ | Win World SeriesWin W.S. ▲ ▼ | |
 | NL East | 1569 | +9 | 99-63 | +174 | 99% | 90% | 19% | |
 | AL East | 1566 | -1 | 100-62 | +200 | 98% | 75% | 16% | |
 | NL West | 1552 | -10 | 91-71 | +106 | 85% | 45% | 10% | |
 | AL West | 1548 | -11 | 89-73 | +89 | 60% | 32% | 7% | |
 | AL East | 1555 | -8 | 91-71 | +85 | 68% | 10% | 7% | |
 | AL West | 1536 | +2 | 92-70 | +167 | 74% | 49% | 6% | |
 | NL West | 1529 | +15 | 88-74 | +78 | 71% | 26% | 5% | |
 | NL West | 1537 | -2 | 84-78 | +62 | 44% | 10% | 4% | |
 | AL East | 1538 | -5 | 88-74 | +47 | 50% | 5% | 3% | |
 | NL East | 1524 | +5 | 85-77 | +9 | 50% | 5% | 3% | |
 | AL West | 1519 | 86-76 | +39 | 39% | 15% | 2% | ||
 | NL Central | 1515 | +1 | 84-78 | -11 | 55% | 49% | 2% | |
 | AL Central | 1516 | -11 | 83-79 | +48 | 52% | 50% | 2% | |
 | AL East | 1510 | -1 | 89-73 | +33 | 58% | 8% | 2% | |
 | AL Central | 1516 | 82-80 | +3 | 42% | 41% | 2% | ||
 Diamondbacks44-30 Dbacks | NL West | 1505 | 87-75 | +21 | 60% | 19% | 2% | ||
 | AL East | 1524 | +14 | 85-77 | +57 | 35% | 2% | 2% | |
 | NL East | 1525 | +3 | 81-81 | +5 | 24% | 1% | 2% | |
 | NL East | 1502 | +9 | 85-77 | -24 | 48% | 4% | 1% | |
 | AL West | 1512 | -2 | 81-81 | +15 | 14% | 4% | <1% | |
 | NL Central | 1494 | +10 | 79-83 | +21 | 26% | 21% | <1% | |
 | NL Central | 1501 | +2 | 75-87 | -10 | 9% | 7% | <1% | |
 | NL Central | 1473 | +10 | 79-83 | -48 | 25% | 20% | <1% | |
 | AL Central | 1483 | +1 | 74-88 | -70 | 8% | 8% | <1% | |
 | NL Central | 1457 | -12 | 72-90 | -96 | 4% | 3% | <1% | |
 | AL Central | 1450 | +5 | 69-93 | -137 | 2% | 2% | <1% | |
 | NL West | 1436 | -9 | 63-99 | -186 | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 | NL East | 1433 | -5 | 63-99 | -148 | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 | AL Central | 1421 | -3 | 53-109 | -221 | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
 | AL West | 1404 | -5 | 51-111 | -307 | <1% | <1% | <1% | |
Forecast from
How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »
Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.
Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.
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