Updated Jun. 21, 2023, at 12:35 AM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Braves have a 19% chance of winning the World Series.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves47-26	—	99%	90%
Phillies Phillies38-35	9.0	50%	5%
Marlins Marlins42-32	5.5	48%	4%
Mets Mets33-39	13.5	24%	1%
Nationals Nationals27-44	19.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/21Wednesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smith-Shawver	1569	–24	+0	=1545	48%
6/21Wednesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1524	+10	+24	=1558	52%
6/22Thursday, June 221:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
6/22Thursday, June 221:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	47%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–2	=1568	59%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1473	+2	+26	=1501	41%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	60%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1473	+2	+24	=1499	40%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	60%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1473	+2	+24	=1499	40%
6/26Monday, June 267:20 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1516	+1	–3	=1514	39%
6/26Monday, June 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+22	=1592	61%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:20 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	39%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	61%
6/28Wednesday, June 2812:20 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	39%
6/28Wednesday, June 2812:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	61%
6/30Friday, June 307:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	–3	=1500	36%
6/30Friday, June 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+26	=1596	64%
7/1Saturday, July 14:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	37%
7/1Saturday, July 14:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	63%
7/2Sunday, July 21:30 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	37%
7/2Sunday, July 21:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	63%
7/3Monday, July 37:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–3	=1567	54%
7/3Monday, July 37:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1516	+3	+22	=1541	46%
7/4Tuesday, July 47:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	54%
7/4Tuesday, July 47:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1516	+3	+24	=1543	46%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	54%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1516	+3	+24	=1543	46%
7/7Friday, July 76:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–1	=1569	47%
7/7Friday, July 76:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	53%
7/8Saturday, July 87:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	47%
7/8Saturday, July 87:15 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	53%
7/9Sunday, July 91:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	47%
7/9Sunday, July 91:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	53%
7/14Friday, July 147:20 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1483	+1	+4	=1488	35%
7/14Friday, July 147:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+29	=1599	65%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1483	+1	+0	=1484	35%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	65%
7/16Sunday, July 161:30 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1483	+1	+0	=1484	35%
7/16Sunday, July 161:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	65%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	–1	=1506	37%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+26	=1596	63%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	38%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	62%
7/20Thursday, July 2012:20 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	38%
7/20Thursday, July 2012:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	62%
7/21Friday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–3	=1567	55%
7/21Friday, July 218:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+21	=1533	45%
7/22Saturday, July 227:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	55%
7/22Saturday, July 227:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+24	=1536	45%
7/23Sunday, July 232:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	55%
7/23Sunday, July 232:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+24	=1536	45%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–1	=1569	52%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1524	+1	+29	=1554	48%
7/26Wednesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
7/26Wednesday, July 267:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	47%
7/28Friday, July 287:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	–1	=1511	38%
7/28Friday, July 287:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+23	=1593	62%
7/29Saturday, July 297:20 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+0	=1512	38%
7/29Saturday, July 297:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	62%
7/30Sunday, July 301:30 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+0	=1512	38%
7/30Sunday, July 301:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	62%
7/31Monday, July 317:20 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	–3	=1518	39%
7/31Monday, July 317:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	61%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:20 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	+0	=1521	40%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	60%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 212:20 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	+0	=1521	40%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 212:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	60%
8/4Friday, Aug. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–1	=1569	57%
8/4Friday, Aug. 42:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+24	=1520	43%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	57%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 52:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+24	=1520	43%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	57%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+24	=1520	43%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–2	=1568	62%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+22	=1480	38%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	62%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	38%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	62%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	38%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	62%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	38%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–2	=1568	52%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+26	=1554	48%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+24	=1552	47%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+24	=1552	47%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+24	=1552	47%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1555	–2	–3	=1550	44%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+21	=1591	56%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1555	–2	+0	=1553	44%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	56%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:20 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1555	–2	+0	=1553	44%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	56%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	–2	=1527	40%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+26	=1596	60%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+0	=1529	41%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	59%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 201:30 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+0	=1529	41%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 201:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	59%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	–2	=1526	40%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	60%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	41%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	59%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 237:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	41%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 237:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	59%
8/25Friday, Aug. 2510:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–2	=1568	52%
8/25Friday, Aug. 2510:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+22	=1551	48%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	52%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 264:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+24	=1553	48%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 274:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	52%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 274:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+24	=1553	48%
8/28Monday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–3	=1567	65%
8/28Monday, Aug. 288:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+20	=1459	35%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 298:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	65%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 298:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+24	=1463	35%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 308:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	65%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 308:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+24	=1463	35%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 3110:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–3	=1567	49%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 3110:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+24	=1576	51%
9/1Friday, Sept. 110:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	49%
9/1Friday, Sept. 110:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+24	=1576	51%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 29:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	49%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 29:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+24	=1576	51%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	49%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+24	=1576	51%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	38%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+22	=1592	62%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	37%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	63%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 77:20 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	37%
9/7Thursday, Sept. 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	63%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	31%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	69%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 97:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	31%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	69%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:30 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	31%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	69%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–1	=1569	53%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+26	=1551	47%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	47%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 144:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 144:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	47%
9/15Friday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–3	=1567	56%
9/15Friday, Sept. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+21	=1524	44%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 164:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	56%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 164:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	44%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	56%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	44%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–2	=1523	40%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+21	=1591	60%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	40%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	60%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	40%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	60%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–3	=1567	65%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	35%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	66%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	34%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	66%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 231:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	34%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	66%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	34%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	–1	=1495	36%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+23	=1593	64%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+0	=1496	36%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	64%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+0	=1496	36%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	64%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	–1	=1433	28%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	72%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	29%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	71%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	29%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	71%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/20Tuesday, June 206:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1568	+19	–1	=1586	55%	4
6/20Tuesday, June 206:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1525	+3	+22	=1550	45%	2
6/18Sunday, June 181:35 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Anderson	1439	+9	+0	=1448	30%	6
6/18Sunday, June 181:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1567	+3	+24	=1594	70%	14
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Seabold	1440	–3	+0	=1437	29%	2
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1565	+7	+24	=1596	71%	10
6/16Friday, June 167:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Lamet	1442	+14	+0	=1456	35%	1
6/16Friday, June 167:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1564	–21	+24	=1567	65%	8
6/15Thursday, June 157:20 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1444	+21	–3	=1462	36%	3
6/15Thursday, June 157:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smith-Shawver	1562	–22	+21	=1561	64%	8
6/14Wednesday, June 145:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1561	–41	+0	=1520	56%	6
6/14Wednesday, June 145:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Lorenzen	1444	+13	+24	=1481	44%	5
6/14Wednesday, June 141:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1560	+23	+2	=1585	67%	10
6/14Wednesday, June 141:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Olson	1445	–11	+26	=1460	33%	7
6/12Monday, June 126:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1562	–2	–3	=1557	65%	5
6/12Monday, June 126:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Englert	1443	–17	+24	=1450	35%	6
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1436	+4	+0	=1440	29%	6
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1565	+8	+24	=1597	71%	2
6/10Saturday, June 104:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1437	+16	+0	=1453	34%	4
6/10Saturday, June 104:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1564	–23	+24	=1565	66%	6
6/9Friday, June 97:20 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1437	+9	–1	=1445	34%	2
6/9Friday, June 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smith-Shawver	1563	–29	+24	=1558	66%	3
6/8Thursday, June 87:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1526	+41	+0	=1567	43%	10
6/8Thursday, June 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1562	+29	+24	=1615	57%	13
6/7Wednesday, June 77:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1528	+37	+0	=1565	47%	5
6/7Wednesday, June 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1561	–2	+24	=1583	53%	7
6/6Tuesday, June 67:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1529	–13	–1	=1515	40%	4
6/6Tuesday, June 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1560	+6	+22	=1588	60%	6
6/4Sunday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1558	–1	+0	=1557	48%	8
6/4Sunday, June 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1501	+46	+24	=1571	52%	5
6/3Saturday, June 310:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1557	+28	+0	=1585	61%	5
6/3Saturday, June 310:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Nelson	1502	–16	+24	=1510	39%	2
6/2Friday, June 29:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1558	–5	–1	=1552	50%	2
6/2Friday, June 29:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1501	+26	+24	=1551	50%	3
5/31Wednesday, May 313:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1557	–26	+0	=1531	63%	4
5/31Wednesday, May 313:37 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1399	+16	+24	=1439	37%	2
5/30Tuesday, May 309:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1558	+4	+0	=1562	67%	1
5/30Tuesday, May 309:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Sears	1398	+18	+24	=1440	33%	2
5/29Monday, May 298:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Soroka	1562	+2	–4	=1560	68%	2
5/29Monday, May 298:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Blackburn	1395	+10	+24	=1429	32%	7
5/28Sunday, May 287 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Covey	1517	–55	+0	=1462	30%	4
5/28Sunday, May 287 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1560	+26	+24	=1610	70%	11
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1516	+28	+0	=1544	45%	2
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1562	–5	+24	=1581	55%	1
5/26Friday, May 267:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1514	–14	+0	=1500	42%	6
5/26Friday, May 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1563	–29	+24	=1558	58%	4
5/25Thursday, May 257:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1516	+21	–3	=1534	49%	5
5/25Thursday, May 257:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1562	–44	+24	=1542	51%	8
5/24Wednesday, May 247:20 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1569	+21	+0	=1590	50%	3
5/24Wednesday, May 247:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1561	+2	+24	=1587	50%	4
5/23Tuesday, May 237:20 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Miller	1565	–25	+0	=1540	39%	8
5/23Tuesday, May 237:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1564	+27	+24	=1615	61%	1
5/22Monday, May 227:20 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Stone	1564	–33	–2	=1529	41%	8
5/22Monday, May 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1566	–1	+24	=1589	59%	6
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1518	+14	+0	=1532	47%	2
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1565	–39	+24	=1550	53%	3
5/20Saturday, May 207:15 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1515	+10	+0	=1525	45%	7
5/20Saturday, May 207:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Chavez	1567	–34	+24	=1557	55%	3
5/19Friday, May 197:20 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Miller	1517	+1	–1	=1517	40%	2
5/19Friday, May 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1565	+1	+23	=1589	60%	6
5/17Wednesday, May 178:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1565	+31	+0	=1596	56%	6
5/17Wednesday, May 178:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Eovaldi	1520	+12	+24	=1556	44%	5
5/16Tuesday, May 168:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1566	–42	+0	=1524	49%	4
5/16Tuesday, May 168:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1518	–15	+24	=1527	51%	7
5/15Monday, May 158:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1563	–5	–3	=1555	57%	12
5/15Monday, May 158:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Bradford	1521	–39	+20	=1502	43%	0
5/14Sunday, May 141:37 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	McHugh	1564	–9	+0	=1555	51%	5
5/14Sunday, May 141:37 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1547	–27	+24	=1544	49%	6
5/13Saturday, May 133:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1566	+1	+0	=1567	51%	2
5/13Saturday, May 133:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1546	–13	+24	=1557	49%	5
5/12Friday, May 127:07 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1568	+30	–1	=1597	53%	0
5/12Friday, May 127:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Bassitt	1544	+4	+24	=1572	47%	3
5/10Wednesday, May 107:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1519	–11	+0	=1508	42%	5
5/10Wednesday, May 107:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Lee	1570	–34	+24	=1560	58%	2
5/9Tuesday, May 97:20 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1520	–1	–1	=1518	40%	3
5/9Tuesday, May 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1568	–5	+26	=1589	60%	9
5/7Sunday, May 711:35 a.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1501	+16	+0	=1517	39%	2
5/7Sunday, May 711:35 a.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1567	+2	+24	=1593	61%	3
5/6Saturday, May 67:15 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1502	+6	+0	=1508	34%	4
5/6Saturday, May 67:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1566	+30	+24	=1620	66%	5
5/5Friday, May 57:20 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Kremer	1498	+2	–3	=1497	33%	9
5/5Friday, May 57:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1570	+27	+21	=1618	67%	4
5/4Thursday, May 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1568	–39	+0	=1529	51%	6
5/4Thursday, May 44:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1487	+7	+24	=1518	49%	3
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1566	–10	+0	=1556	56%	14
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1490	–3	+24	=1511	44%	6
5/2Tuesday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1563	–6	–3	=1554	51%	6
5/2Tuesday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+31	+26	=1549	49%	0
5/1Monday, May 14:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1564	–6	+0	=1558	51%	3
5/1Monday, May 14:45 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1548	–17	+24	=1555	49%	5
5/1Monday, May 11:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1564	+30	+5	=1599	56%	9
5/1Monday, May 11:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Reyes	1549	–18	+29	=1560	44%	8
4/28Friday, April 287:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1562	+23	–3	=1582	54%	4
4/28Friday, April 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1551	–21	+24	=1554	46%	0
4/27Thursday, April 2712:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1487	–6	+0	=1481	37%	5
4/27Thursday, April 2712:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1563	–10	+24	=1577	63%	4
4/26Wednesday, April 267:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1488	+33	+0	=1521	41%	4
4/26Wednesday, April 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1562	+1	+24	=1587	59%	6
4/25Tuesday, April 257:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Hoeing	1489	–38	+0	=1451	33%	4
4/25Tuesday, April 257:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1561	–9	+24	=1576	67%	7
4/24Monday, April 247:20 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1491	–5	–3	=1483	33%	0
4/24Monday, April 247:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1559	+25	+24	=1608	67%	11
4/23Sunday, April 231:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1555	+28	+0	=1583	46%	5
4/23Sunday, April 231:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1561	+23	+24	=1608	54%	2
4/22Saturday, April 227:20 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1553	+23	+0	=1576	49%	6
4/22Saturday, April 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1563	–5	+24	=1582	51%	3
4/21Friday, April 217:20 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Brown	1551	–8	–1	=1542	44%	6
4/21Friday, April 217:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1564	–1	+22	=1585	56%	4
4/19Wednesday, April 194:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1566	–7	+0	=1559	55%	0
4/19Wednesday, April 194:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1539	–39	+24	=1524	45%	1
4/18Tuesday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1563	+23	+0	=1586	52%	8
4/18Tuesday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1541	+5	+24	=1570	48%	1
4/17Monday, April 179:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1562	+22	–3	=1581	59%	2
4/17Monday, April 179:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1542	–50	+24	=1516	41%	0
4/16Sunday, April 162:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1561	–4	+0	=1557	62%	5
4/16Sunday, April 162:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Greinke	1445	+4	+24	=1473	38%	4
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1560	+4	+0	=1564	64%	9
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Bubic	1447	–9	+24	=1462	36%	3
4/14Friday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1557	–6	–1	=1550	58%	10
4/14Friday, April 148:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1449	+22	+24	=1495	42%	3
4/12Wednesday, April 127:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1454	+15	+0	=1469	31%	4
4/12Wednesday, April 127:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1557	+24	+24	=1605	69%	5
4/11Tuesday, April 117:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1454	–9	+0	=1445	32%	6
4/11Tuesday, April 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1556	+0	+24	=1580	68%	7
4/10Monday, April 107:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1455	–11	–3	=1441	31%	4
4/10Monday, April 107:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1556	–1	+24	=1579	69%	5
4/9Sunday, April 97 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1545	–22	+0	=1523	45%	10
4/9Sunday, April 97 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1559	–28	+24	=1555	55%	2
4/8Saturday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1543	–2	+0	=1541	45%	4
4/8Saturday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1561	–7	+24	=1578	55%	1
4/7Friday, April 77:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1542	–38	+0	=1504	44%	5
4/7Friday, April 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1562	–39	+24	=1547	56%	4
4/6Thursday, April 67:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1542	+13	–2	=1553	43%	6
4/6Thursday, April 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1561	+23	+22	=1606	57%	7
4/5Wednesday, April 51:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1560	–11	+0	=1549	48%	5
4/5Wednesday, April 51:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1522	+16	+24	=1562	52%	2
4/4Tuesday, April 47:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1558	–33	+0	=1525	47%	4
4/4Tuesday, April 47:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1524	–1	+24	=1547	53%	1
4/3Monday, April 37:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1556	–5	–3	=1548	50%	8
4/3Monday, April 37:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1526	–4	+24	=1546	50%	4
4/2Sunday, April 21:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1558	–34	+0	=1524	59%	1
4/2Sunday, April 21:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1431	+5	+24	=1460	41%	4
4/1Saturday, April 14:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1556	+20	+2	=1578	67%	7
4/1Saturday, April 14:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1432	+0	+26	=1458	33%	1
3/30Thursday, March 301:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1555	+21	–3	=1573	68%	7
3/30Thursday, March 301:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1434	–13	+24	=1445	32%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.