Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Mets have a 4% chance of winning the World Series.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves35-24	—	95%	79%
Mets Mets29-30	6.0	53%	11%
Phillies Phillies28-32	7.5	36%	6%
Marlins Marlins33-28	3.0	35%	4%
Nationals Nationals25-33	9.5	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
5/14Sunday, May 144:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1529	+36	+0	=1565	63%
5/14Sunday, May 144:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1441	–4	+24	=1461	37%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1529	–13	–1	=1515	40%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1560	+6	+22	=1588	60%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	43%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	57%
6/8Thursday, June 87:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	43%
6/8Thursday, June 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	57%
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–2	=1530	54%
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+26	=1503	46%
6/10Saturday, June 104:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	54%
6/10Saturday, June 104:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	46%
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	54%
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	46%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+1	=1566	52%
6/13Tuesday, June 137:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	48%
6/14Wednesday, June 147 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	51%
6/14Wednesday, June 147 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	49%
6/16Friday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–1	=1508	43%
6/16Friday, June 167:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+26	=1558	57%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	43%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	57%
6/18Sunday, June 181:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	43%
6/18Sunday, June 181:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	57%
6/19Monday, June 198:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–3	=1529	42%
6/19Monday, June 198:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	58%
6/20Tuesday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	42%
6/20Tuesday, June 208:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	58%
6/21Wednesday, June 212:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	42%
6/21Wednesday, June 212:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	58%
6/23Friday, June 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–1	=1531	48%
6/23Friday, June 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	52%
6/24Saturday, June 244:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
6/24Saturday, June 244:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	51%
6/25Sunday, June 251:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
6/25Sunday, June 251:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	51%
6/26Monday, June 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	–2	=1514	44%
6/26Monday, June 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+23	=1555	56%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	44%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	44%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
6/29Thursday, June 297:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	44%
6/29Thursday, June 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
6/30Friday, June 307:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	–2	=1506	43%
6/30Friday, June 307:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	57%
7/1Saturday, July 14:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	43%
7/1Saturday, July 14:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	57%
7/2Sunday, July 21:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	43%
7/2Sunday, July 21:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	57%
7/4Tuesday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–2	=1530	51%
7/4Tuesday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	49%
7/5Wednesday, July 59:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	51%
7/5Wednesday, July 59:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	49%
7/6Thursday, July 69:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	51%
7/6Thursday, July 69:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	49%
7/7Friday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–2	=1530	45%
7/7Friday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+26	=1563	55%
7/8Saturday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	46%
7/8Saturday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	54%
7/9Sunday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	46%
7/9Sunday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	54%
7/14Friday, July 147:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+3	=1564	51%
7/14Friday, July 147:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+27	=1559	49%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	51%
7/15Saturday, July 157:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	49%
7/16Sunday, July 161:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	51%
7/16Sunday, July 161:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	49%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	–1	=1483	40%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+26	=1558	60%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	40%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	60%
7/20Thursday, July 201:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1484	+0	+0	=1484	40%
7/20Thursday, July 201:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	60%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–2	=1530	49%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+22	=1538	51%
7/22Saturday, July 224:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
7/22Saturday, July 224:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	51%
7/23Sunday, July 23	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
7/23Sunday, July 23	BOSRed Sox	—	1514	+2	+24	=1540	51%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+3	=1535	42%
7/25Tuesday, July 257:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+26	=1591	58%
7/26Wednesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	42%
7/26Wednesday, July 267:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+24	=1589	58%
7/27Thursday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	34%
7/27Thursday, July 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+23	=1555	66%
7/28Friday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
7/28Friday, July 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	66%
7/29Saturday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
7/29Saturday, July 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	66%
7/30Sunday, July 301:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	34%
7/30Sunday, July 301:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	66%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–1	=1531	60%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+26	=1459	40%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	61%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 28:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	39%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	61%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 32:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	39%
8/4Friday, Aug. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–3	=1529	50%
8/4Friday, Aug. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+22	=1529	50%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	50%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	50%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–3	=1483	40%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+22	=1554	60%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	40%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	60%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	40%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	60%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	–2	=1558	50%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+26	=1558	50%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	51%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 121:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	49%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:15 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	51%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	49%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	51%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	49%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–2	=1475	39%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	61%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	61%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	61%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–3	=1529	49%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 177:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	51%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	50%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	50%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	50%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	50%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–2	=1530	42%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	58%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	43%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	57%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 237:20 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	43%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 237:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	57%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	–2	=1511	44%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+23	=1555	56%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+0	=1513	44%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 2712:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+0	=1513	44%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 2712:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	–3	=1534	47%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	53%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	47%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	53%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1539	–2	+0	=1537	47%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 306:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	53%
9/1Friday, Sept. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	–2	=1509	43%
9/1Friday, Sept. 17:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+26	=1558	57%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+0	=1511	44%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+0	=1511	44%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	59%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 57:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+26	=1468	41%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	59%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 67:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	41%
9/8Friday, Sept. 88:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–1	=1531	47%
9/8Friday, Sept. 88:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+23	=1551	53%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	47%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	53%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	47%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	53%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	–3	=1498	42%
9/11Monday, Sept. 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+21	=1553	58%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	42%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 127:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	58%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	42%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 137:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	58%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	42%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 144:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	58%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	36%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	64%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	36%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	64%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	36%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	64%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–3	=1529	52%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	48%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	52%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	48%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	52%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 206:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	48%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–3	=1529	49%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+21	=1538	51%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	51%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	51%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	49%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	51%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–1	=1492	41%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+25	=1557	59%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	41%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	59%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	41%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	59%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	–1	=1516	44%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	56%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	45%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	55%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	45%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	55%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/4Sunday, June 41:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1546	–33	+0	=1513	44%	6
6/4Sunday, June 41:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1530	+2	+24	=1556	56%	4
6/3Saturday, June 34:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1545	–4	+0	=1541	51%	2
6/3Saturday, June 34:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1531	–22	+24	=1533	49%	1
6/2Friday, June 27:10 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Bassitt	1543	+6	–2	=1547	43%	3
6/2Friday, June 27:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1533	+40	+24	=1597	57%	0
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1513	–15	+0	=1498	37%	2
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1532	+34	+24	=1590	63%	4
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1515	+18	+0	=1533	49%	1
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1531	–15	+24	=1540	51%	4
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1516	–4	–1	=1511	45%	0
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1529	–9	+22	=1542	55%	2
5/28Sunday, May 283:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1531	–16	+0	=1515	56%	10
5/28Sunday, May 283:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1448	–2	+24	=1470	44%	11
5/27Saturday, May 279:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1533	+46	+0	=1579	65%	7
5/27Saturday, May 279:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Anderson	1446	–2	+24	=1468	35%	10
5/26Friday, May 268:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1532	+32	–3	=1561	67%	5
5/26Friday, May 268:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Seabold	1447	–35	+24	=1436	33%	2
5/25Thursday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1529	–17	+0	=1512	52%	10
5/25Thursday, May 257:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1494	–16	+24	=1502	48%	1
5/24Wednesday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1530	–7	+0	=1523	49%	2
5/24Wednesday, May 247:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1492	+15	+24	=1531	51%	4
5/23Tuesday, May 237:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1532	–11	–1	=1520	50%	2
5/23Tuesday, May 237:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1490	+10	+23	=1523	50%	7
5/21Sunday, May 217 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bieber	1512	+26	+0	=1538	41%	1
5/21Sunday, May 217 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1532	+45	+24	=1601	59%	2
5/21Sunday, May 211:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bibee	1513	–10	+2	=1505	38%	4
5/21Sunday, May 211:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1531	+30	+26	=1587	62%	5
5/19Friday, May 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Quantrill	1514	–1	–3	=1510	46%	9
5/19Friday, May 197:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1530	–14	+24	=1540	54%	10
5/18Thursday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Bradley	1563	–25	+0	=1538	50%	2
5/18Thursday, May 181:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1529	–12	+24	=1541	50%	3
5/17Wednesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Fleming	1564	–59	+0	=1505	45%	7
5/17Wednesday, May 177:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1528	–15	+24	=1537	55%	8
5/16Tuesday, May 167:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Beeks	1562	–54	+1	=1509	36%	8
5/16Tuesday, May 167:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1530	+53	+22	=1605	64%	5
5/15Monday, May 154:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1534	–18	+0	=1516	59%	3
5/15Monday, May 154:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1440	–15	+24	=1449	41%	10
5/13Saturday, May 134:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lucchesi	1535	–8	+0	=1527	58%	2
5/13Saturday, May 134:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1439	+5	+24	=1468	42%	3
5/12Friday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1534	–14	–2	=1518	56%	3
5/12Friday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1440	+11	+22	=1473	44%	2
5/11Thursday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1537	–15	+0	=1522	58%	0
5/11Thursday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Law	1449	–8	+24	=1465	42%	5
5/10Wednesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1536	+49	+0	=1585	62%	2
5/10Wednesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1450	+27	+24	=1501	38%	1
5/9Tuesday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1537	–16	–1	=1520	58%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1449	–7	+26	=1468	42%	7
5/7Sunday, May 71:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Feltner	1442	+1	+0	=1443	34%	13
5/7Sunday, May 71:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lucchesi	1541	–6	+24	=1559	66%	6
5/6Saturday, May 64:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1439	–7	+0	=1432	33%	5
5/6Saturday, May 64:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1544	–14	+24	=1554	67%	2
5/5Friday, May 57:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1440	+4	–4	=1440	36%	0
5/5Friday, May 57:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1543	–21	+22	=1544	64%	1
5/4Thursday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1545	+52	+0	=1597	64%	0
5/4Thursday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1450	+20	+24	=1494	36%	2
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1548	+35	+0	=1583	66%	1
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Lorenzen	1447	–2	+24	=1469	34%	8
5/3Wednesday, May 31:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lucchesi	1550	–4	+0	=1546	61%	5
5/3Wednesday, May 31:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Wentz	1445	–3	+29	=1471	39%	6
5/1Monday, May 14:45 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1564	–6	+0	=1558	51%	3
5/1Monday, May 14:45 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1548	–17	+24	=1555	49%	5
5/1Monday, May 11:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1564	+30	+5	=1599	56%	9
5/1Monday, May 11:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Reyes	1549	–18	+29	=1560	44%	8
4/28Friday, April 287:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1562	+23	–3	=1582	54%	4
4/28Friday, April 287:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1551	–21	+24	=1554	46%	0
4/27Thursday, April 277:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1437	+11	+0	=1448	33%	8
4/27Thursday, April 277:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lucchesi	1550	–4	+24	=1570	67%	9
4/26Wednesday, April 267:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1435	+11	+0	=1446	36%	4
4/26Wednesday, April 267:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1553	–27	+24	=1550	64%	1
4/25Tuesday, April 257:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1432	+2	–1	=1433	34%	5
4/25Tuesday, April 257:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Butto	1556	–32	+22	=1546	66%	0
4/23Sunday, April 237 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1557	–18	+0	=1539	51%	4
4/23Sunday, April 237 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Stripling	1499	+12	+24	=1535	49%	5
4/22Saturday, April 224:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1559	–20	+0	=1539	50%	4
4/22Saturday, April 224:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Webb	1497	+14	+24	=1535	50%	7
4/21Friday, April 2110:15 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Lucchesi	1556	–12	+0	=1544	53%	7
4/21Friday, April 2110:15 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1500	+0	+24	=1524	47%	0
4/20Thursday, April 209:45 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1554	–24	–2	=1528	54%	9
4/20Thursday, April 209:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Manaea	1502	–20	+20	=1502	46%	4
4/19Wednesday, April 193:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1553	+30	+0	=1583	52%	5
4/19Wednesday, April 193:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Syndergaard	1557	–15	+24	=1566	48%	3
4/18Tuesday, April 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1555	–16	+0	=1539	42%	0
4/18Tuesday, April 1810:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1556	+18	+24	=1598	58%	5
4/17Monday, April 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1553	–18	–2	=1533	44%	8
4/17Monday, April 1710:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1557	–8	+24	=1573	56%	6
4/16Sunday, April 164:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Butto	1552	–36	+0	=1516	59%	4
4/16Sunday, April 164:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Sears	1425	+2	+24	=1451	41%	3
4/15Saturday, April 154:07 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1551	–26	+0	=1525	62%	3
4/15Saturday, April 154:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Fujinami	1425	–7	+24	=1442	38%	2
4/14Friday, April 149:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1549	–19	–2	=1528	59%	17
4/14Friday, April 149:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1428	+16	+20	=1464	41%	6
4/12Wednesday, April 121:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1548	+7	+0	=1555	50%	2
4/12Wednesday, April 121:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1547	–19	+24	=1552	50%	5
4/11Tuesday, April 117:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1546	–57	+0	=1489	41%	4
4/11Tuesday, April 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1549	–21	+24	=1552	59%	2
4/10Monday, April 107:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1548	+25	–3	=1570	46%	0
4/10Monday, April 107:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1547	+26	+24	=1597	54%	5
4/9Sunday, April 91:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1485	–14	+0	=1471	39%	7
4/9Sunday, April 91:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1549	–22	+24	=1551	61%	2
4/8Saturday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1486	–20	+0	=1466	38%	2
4/8Saturday, April 84:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1548	–23	+24	=1549	62%	5
4/7Friday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1488	–7	–1	=1480	40%	3
4/7Friday, April 71:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1546	–22	+23	=1547	60%	9
4/5Wednesday, April 51:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1547	–18	+0	=1529	43%	6
4/5Wednesday, April 51:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1535	+21	+24	=1580	57%	7
4/4Tuesday, April 47:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1551	+31	+0	=1582	58%	0
4/4Tuesday, April 47:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Miley	1531	–31	+24	=1524	42%	9
4/3Monday, April 32:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1554	–21	–3	=1530	46%	0
4/3Monday, April 32:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1528	+10	+23	=1561	54%	10
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1552	–31	+0	=1521	54%	5
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Rogers	1490	–19	+24	=1495	46%	1
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1550	–25	+0	=1525	52%	6
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1492	–6	+24	=1510	48%	2
3/31Friday, March 316:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1552	–20	+0	=1532	52%	1
3/31Friday, March 316:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1491	+2	+24	=1517	48%	2
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1550	+31	–3	=1578	53%	5
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1492	+40	+24	=1556	47%	3

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.