Updated Jun. 21, 2023, at 12:35 AM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Padres have a 4% chance of winning the World Series.

NL West standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Dodgers Dodgers40-33	3.5	85%	45%
Giants Giants41-32	2.5	71%	26%
Dbacks Diamondbacks44-30	—	60%	19%
Padres Padres35-38	8.5	44%	10%
Rockies Rockies29-47	16.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/21Wednesday, June 219:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1537	+12	+0	=1549	50%
6/21Wednesday, June 219:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Walker (open)	1529	+0	+24	=1553	50%
6/22Thursday, June 223:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	48%
6/22Thursday, June 223:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+24	=1553	52%
6/23Friday, June 239:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	–2	=1432	32%
6/23Friday, June 239:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+22	=1562	68%
6/24Saturday, June 248:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	32%
6/24Saturday, June 248:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	68%
6/25Sunday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	32%
6/25Sunday, June 254:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	68%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–2	=1538	58%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+23	=1481	42%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	58%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	42%
6/29Thursday, June 2912:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	58%
6/29Thursday, June 2912:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	42%
6/30Friday, June 307:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–2	=1538	56%
6/30Friday, June 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1473	+2	+24	=1499	44%
7/1Saturday, July 11:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	56%
7/1Saturday, July 11:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1473	+2	+24	=1499	44%
7/2Sunday, July 21:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	56%
7/2Sunday, July 21:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1473	+2	+24	=1499	44%
7/3Monday, July 39:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	–1	=1520	44%
7/3Monday, July 39:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+20	=1560	56%
7/4Tuesday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	+0	=1521	44%
7/4Tuesday, July 46:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
7/5Wednesday, July 58:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	+0	=1521	44%
7/5Wednesday, July 58:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
7/7Friday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	–2	=1526	44%
7/7Friday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+26	=1566	56%
7/8Saturday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	45%
7/8Saturday, July 810:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	55%
7/9Sunday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	45%
7/9Sunday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	55%
7/14Friday, July 146:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+3	=1543	49%
7/14Friday, July 146:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+28	=1553	51%
7/15Saturday, July 151:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	49%
7/15Saturday, July 151:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	51%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	49%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	51%
7/16Sunday, July 161:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	49%
7/16Sunday, July 161:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	51%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:07 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	47%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1538	+0	+26	=1564	53%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	47%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1538	+0	+24	=1562	53%
7/20Thursday, July 201:07 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	47%
7/20Thursday, July 201:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1538	+0	+24	=1562	53%
7/21Friday, July 216:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–2	=1538	60%
7/21Friday, July 216:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1450	–4	+21	=1467	40%
7/22Saturday, July 226:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	60%
7/22Saturday, July 226:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1450	–4	+24	=1470	40%
7/23Sunday, July 2312:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	60%
7/23Sunday, July 2312:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1450	–4	+24	=1470	40%
7/24Monday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	–1	=1457	35%
7/24Monday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+20	=1560	65%
7/25Tuesday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	35%
7/25Tuesday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	65%
7/26Wednesday, July 264:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	35%
7/26Wednesday, July 264:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	65%
7/28Friday, July 289:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1536	–3	–1	=1532	45%
7/28Friday, July 289:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+26	=1566	55%
7/29Saturday, July 298:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1536	–3	+0	=1533	46%
7/29Saturday, July 298:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	54%
7/30Sunday, July 304:10 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	—	1536	–3	+0	=1533	46%
7/30Sunday, July 304:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	54%
7/31Monday, July 318:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–3	=1537	61%
7/31Monday, July 318:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+24	=1463	39%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	61%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+24	=1463	39%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	61%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 23:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+24	=1463	39%
8/4Friday, Aug. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	–1	=1551	48%
8/4Friday, Aug. 49:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+23	=1563	52%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+0	=1552	48%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 58:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	52%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+0	=1552	48%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	52%
8/7Monday, Aug. 74:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+0	=1552	48%
8/7Monday, Aug. 74:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	52%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–3	=1537	50%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 89:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1512	+1	+23	=1536	50%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	50%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 99:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1512	+1	+24	=1537	50%
8/11Friday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–1	=1539	51%
8/11Friday, Aug. 119:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+26	=1533	49%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	51%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 128:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+24	=1531	49%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	51%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 134:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+24	=1531	49%
8/14Monday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1510	+2	–3	=1509	42%
8/14Monday, Aug. 149:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+22	=1562	58%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1510	+2	+0	=1512	43%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	57%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 168:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1510	+2	+0	=1512	43%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 168:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	57%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	–3	=1504	41%
8/17Thursday, Aug. 179:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	59%
8/18Friday, Aug. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	42%
8/18Friday, Aug. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	58%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	42%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 198:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	58%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1505	+2	+0	=1507	42%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	58%
8/21Monday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	–1	=1502	41%
8/21Monday, Aug. 219:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	59%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	41%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	59%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	41%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	59%
8/25Friday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–2	=1538	50%
8/25Friday, Aug. 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+26	=1538	50%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	51%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+24	=1536	49%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 272:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	51%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 272:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+24	=1536	49%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–2	=1538	52%
8/28Monday, Aug. 287:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+21	=1524	48%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	52%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 297:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+24	=1527	48%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	52%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 302:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+24	=1527	48%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 319:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	–2	=1527	45%
8/31Thursday, Aug. 319:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+20	=1560	55%
9/1Friday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+0	=1529	45%
9/1Friday, Sept. 19:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	55%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 28:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+0	=1529	45%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 28:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	55%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+0	=1529	45%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 34:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	55%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–4	=1521	44%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 59:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	44%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 59:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	44%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
9/8Friday, Sept. 88:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–1	=1539	45%
9/8Friday, Sept. 88:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+0	+24	=1572	55%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	45%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 97:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+0	+24	=1572	55%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	45%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 102:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1548	+0	+24	=1572	55%
9/11Monday, Sept. 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–3	=1537	45%
9/11Monday, Sept. 1110:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+20	=1572	55%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 1210:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	45%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 1210:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+24	=1576	55%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	45%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 1310:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1552	+0	+24	=1576	55%
9/15Friday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	65%
9/15Friday, Sept. 159:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1404	+6	+22	=1432	35%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 164:07 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	65%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 164:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1404	+6	+24	=1434	35%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 174:07 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	65%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 174:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1404	+6	+24	=1434	35%
9/18Monday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	–3	=1436	33%
9/18Monday, Sept. 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+22	=1562	67%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+0	=1439	33%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	67%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1436	+3	+0	=1439	33%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 204:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	67%
9/22Friday, Sept. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	–4	=1499	41%
9/22Friday, Sept. 229:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+26	=1566	59%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 238:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	41%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 238:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	59%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	41%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 244:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	59%
9/25Monday, Sept. 259:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–2	=1538	48%
9/25Monday, Sept. 259:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+22	=1551	52%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 269:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	48%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 269:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+24	=1553	52%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 279:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	48%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 279:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+24	=1553	52%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	–2	=1538	54%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1483	+1	+26	=1510	46%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	55%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1483	+1	+24	=1508	45%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	55%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	—	1483	+1	+24	=1508	45%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/20Tuesday, June 209:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1538	–21	+0	=1517	47%	3
6/20Tuesday, June 209:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1528	–11	+24	=1541	53%	4
6/19Monday, June 199:45 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1540	+15	–2	=1553	53%	4
6/19Monday, June 199:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Walker	1526	–19	+22	=1529	47%	7
6/18Sunday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Chirinos	1569	–11	+0	=1558	48%	4
6/18Sunday, June 184:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1539	+7	+24	=1570	52%	5
6/17Saturday, June 177:15 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Eflin	1570	–4	+0	=1566	48%	0
6/17Saturday, June 177:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1537	+15	+24	=1576	52%	2
6/16Friday, June 169:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1568	+18	–2	=1584	50%	6
6/16Friday, June 169:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1539	+19	+24	=1582	50%	2
6/15Thursday, June 158:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Allen	1514	–9	+0	=1505	49%	8
6/15Thursday, June 158:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1541	–53	+24	=1512	51%	6
6/14Wednesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Civale	1516	+1	+0	=1517	42%	0
6/14Wednesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1539	+12	+24	=1575	58%	5
6/13Tuesday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	Bibee	1517	–3	–2	=1512	42%	3
6/13Tuesday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1538	+8	+23	=1569	58%	6
6/11Sunday, June 113:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1539	+7	+0	=1546	60%	4
6/11Sunday, June 113:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Lamet	1441	+15	+24	=1480	40%	5
6/10Saturday, June 103:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1538	–54	+0	=1484	50%	3
6/10Saturday, June 103:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1442	+20	+24	=1486	50%	2
6/9Friday, June 98:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1537	+20	–1	=1556	64%	9
6/9Friday, June 98:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1443	–8	+24	=1459	36%	6
6/7Wednesday, June 74:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1512	+12	+0	=1524	44%	3
6/7Wednesday, June 74:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1535	+10	+24	=1569	56%	10
6/6Tuesday, June 69:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1510	+8	–1	=1517	42%	4
6/6Tuesday, June 69:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1537	+9	+24	=1570	58%	1
6/5Monday, June 59:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Hendricks	1486	–17	+0	=1469	37%	0
6/5Monday, June 59:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1535	+6	+24	=1565	63%	5
6/4Sunday, June 45:30 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1484	+26	+0	=1510	49%	7
6/4Sunday, June 45:30 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1538	–47	+24	=1515	51%	1
6/3Saturday, June 310:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1486	+4	+0	=1490	38%	0
6/3Saturday, June 310:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1536	+16	+24	=1576	62%	6
6/2Friday, June 29:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1484	–13	–2	=1469	36%	2
6/2Friday, June 29:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1538	+12	+20	=1570	64%	1
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1535	+8	+0	=1543	54%	10
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1490	+3	+24	=1517	46%	1
5/31Wednesday, May 316:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1536	+3	+0	=1539	55%	1
5/31Wednesday, May 316:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1489	–8	+24	=1505	45%	2
5/30Tuesday, May 306:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1533	–44	–1	=1488	43%	9
5/30Tuesday, May 306:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1491	+26	+22	=1539	57%	4
5/28Sunday, May 281:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1535	+23	+0	=1558	44%	7
5/28Sunday, May 281:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1557	+21	+24	=1602	56%	10
5/27Saturday, May 271:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1535	+9	+0	=1544	43%	2
5/27Saturday, May 271:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1557	+14	+24	=1595	57%	3
5/26Friday, May 267:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1533	+4	–2	=1535	48%	5
5/26Friday, May 267:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Vasquez	1559	–36	+24	=1547	52%	1
5/25Thursday, May 254:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1532	+1	+0	=1533	60%	8
5/25Thursday, May 254:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Irvin	1442	–4	+24	=1462	40%	6
5/24Wednesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1534	–44	+0	=1490	52%	3
5/24Wednesday, May 247:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1441	+8	+24	=1473	48%	5
5/23Tuesday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1533	+26	–2	=1557	61%	7
5/23Tuesday, May 237:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1442	+12	+26	=1480	39%	4
5/21Sunday, May 214:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1523	–4	+0	=1519	44%	0
5/21Sunday, May 214:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1530	+7	+24	=1561	56%	7
5/20Saturday, May 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1522	+19	+0	=1541	47%	4
5/20Saturday, May 2010:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1532	+6	+24	=1562	53%	2
5/19Friday, May 199:40 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1519	+16	–2	=1533	45%	6
5/19Friday, May 199:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1534	+6	+26	=1566	55%	1
5/17Wednesday, May 174:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Hernandez	1438	–15	+0	=1423	28%	4
5/17Wednesday, May 174:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1536	+29	+24	=1589	72%	3
5/16Tuesday, May 169:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Singer	1436	+14	+0	=1450	37%	5
5/16Tuesday, May 169:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1538	–18	+24	=1544	63%	4
5/15Monday, May 159:40 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	Keller	1437	–11	–4	=1422	32%	0
5/15Monday, May 159:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1537	–2	+23	=1558	68%	4
5/14Sunday, May 144:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1538	–47	+0	=1491	34%	0
5/14Sunday, May 144:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1568	+14	+24	=1606	66%	4
5/13Saturday, May 137:15 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1539	+7	+0	=1546	42%	2
5/13Saturday, May 137:15 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1567	+12	+24	=1603	58%	4
5/12Friday, May 1210:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1540	+3	–4	=1539	43%	2
5/12Friday, May 1210:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1565	–2	+22	=1585	57%	4
5/11Thursday, May 111:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1542	+28	+0	=1570	52%	3
5/11Thursday, May 111:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Ober	1523	+6	+24	=1553	48%	5
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1543	–19	+0	=1524	47%	3
5/10Wednesday, May 107:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Lopez	1522	+0	+24	=1546	53%	4
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1541	–4	–2	=1535	52%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 97:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	Varland	1524	–29	+23	=1518	48%	1
5/7Sunday, May 77 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1562	+14	+0	=1576	50%	5
5/7Sunday, May 77 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1542	+7	+24	=1573	50%	2
5/6Saturday, May 68:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	May	1561	–5	+0	=1556	48%	2
5/6Saturday, May 68:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1543	+3	+24	=1570	52%	1
5/5Friday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Kershaw	1563	+32	+1	=1596	50%	2
5/5Friday, May 59:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1542	+28	+26	=1596	50%	5
5/3Wednesday, May 34:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1454	–19	+0	=1435	34%	1
5/3Wednesday, May 34:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1540	–17	+24	=1547	66%	7
5/2Tuesday, May 29:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1453	+5	+0	=1458	36%	2
5/2Tuesday, May 29:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1542	–5	+24	=1561	64%	1
5/1Monday, May 19:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1454	–7	–2	=1445	33%	3
5/1Monday, May 19:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1540	+6	+24	=1570	67%	8
4/30Sunday, April 304:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cobb	1501	+13	+0	=1514	42%	4
4/30Sunday, April 304:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1539	+33	+0	=1572	58%	6
4/29Saturday, April 296:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Manaea	1502	–24	+0	=1478	40%	11
4/29Saturday, April 296:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1538	+15	–2	=1551	60%	16
4/27Thursday, April 272:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1539	–17	+0	=1522	53%	2
4/27Thursday, April 272:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1500	–22	+24	=1502	47%	5
4/26Wednesday, April 267:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1538	–9	+0	=1529	50%	5
4/26Wednesday, April 267:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1501	+1	+24	=1526	50%	3
4/25Tuesday, April 257:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1541	+4	–2	=1543	52%	0
4/25Tuesday, April 257:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1498	+8	+26	=1532	48%	6
4/23Sunday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1540	+30	+0	=1570	58%	7
4/23Sunday, April 234:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Jameson	1492	–1	+24	=1515	42%	5
4/22Saturday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Musgrove	1538	+16	+0	=1554	53%	5
4/22Saturday, April 228:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1493	+16	+24	=1533	47%	3
4/21Friday, April 219:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1541	–20	+0	=1521	44%	0
4/21Friday, April 219:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1490	+47	+24	=1561	56%	9
4/20Thursday, April 209:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1540	–5	–2	=1533	53%	7
4/20Thursday, April 209:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Nelson	1491	–1	+21	=1511	47%	5
4/19Wednesday, April 194:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1566	–7	+0	=1559	55%	0
4/19Wednesday, April 194:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1539	–39	+24	=1524	45%	1
4/18Tuesday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1563	+23	+0	=1586	52%	8
4/18Tuesday, April 189:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1541	+5	+24	=1570	48%	1
4/17Monday, April 179:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Fried	1562	+22	–3	=1581	59%	2
4/17Monday, April 179:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1542	–50	+24	=1516	41%	0
4/16Sunday, April 164:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Miley	1538	–25	+0	=1513	38%	1
4/16Sunday, April 164:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1544	+28	+24	=1596	62%	0
4/15Saturday, April 154:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Peralta	1541	+15	+0	=1556	51%	3
4/15Saturday, April 154:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1541	–17	+24	=1548	49%	10
4/14Friday, April 149:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Lauer	1537	–17	+0	=1520	42%	11
4/14Friday, April 149:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1545	+4	+24	=1573	58%	2
4/13Thursday, April 139:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Rea	1536	–44	–2	=1490	45%	4
4/13Thursday, April 139:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1546	–40	+20	=1526	55%	3
4/12Wednesday, April 121:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1548	+7	+0	=1555	50%	2
4/12Wednesday, April 121:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Megill	1547	–19	+24	=1552	50%	5
4/11Tuesday, April 117:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1546	–57	+0	=1489	41%	4
4/11Tuesday, April 117:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1549	–21	+24	=1552	59%	2
4/10Monday, April 107:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1548	+25	–3	=1570	46%	0
4/10Monday, April 107:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1547	+26	+24	=1597	54%	5
4/9Sunday, April 97 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1545	–22	+0	=1523	45%	10
4/9Sunday, April 97 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1559	–28	+24	=1555	55%	2
4/8Saturday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1543	–2	+0	=1541	45%	4
4/8Saturday, April 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1561	–7	+24	=1578	55%	1
4/7Friday, April 77:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1542	–38	+0	=1504	44%	5
4/7Friday, April 77:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1562	–39	+24	=1547	56%	4
4/6Thursday, April 67:20 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1542	+13	–2	=1553	43%	6
4/6Thursday, April 67:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1561	+23	+22	=1606	57%	7
4/4Tuesday, April 44:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1483	+43	+0	=1526	40%	8
4/4Tuesday, April 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Darvish	1544	+27	+24	=1595	60%	6
4/3Monday, April 39:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Nelson	1484	–4	–1	=1479	46%	4
4/3Monday, April 39:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Weathers	1543	–60	+24	=1507	54%	5
4/2Sunday, April 24:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1448	–1	+0	=1447	37%	1
4/2Sunday, April 24:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1542	–27	+24	=1539	63%	3
4/1Saturday, April 18:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Urena	1449	–16	+0	=1433	32%	4
4/1Saturday, April 18:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1541	+0	+24	=1565	68%	8
3/31Friday, March 319:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1447	+15	+0	=1462	41%	4
3/31Friday, March 319:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Martinez	1543	–40	+24	=1527	59%	1
3/30Thursday, March 309:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Marquez	1443	+15	–3	=1455	32%	7
3/30Thursday, March 309:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1547	+14	+24	=1585	68%	2

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.