Updated Jun. 21, 2023, at 12:35 AM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Phillies have a 3% chance of winning the World Series.

NL East standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Braves Braves47-26	—	99%	90%
Phillies Phillies38-35	9.0	50%	5%
Marlins Marlins42-32	5.5	48%	4%
Mets Mets33-39	13.5	24%	1%
Nationals Nationals27-44	19.0	<1%	<1%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/21Wednesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Smith-Shawver	1569	–24	+0	=1545	48%
6/21Wednesday, June 216:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1524	+10	+24	=1558	52%
6/22Thursday, June 221:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
6/22Thursday, June 221:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	47%
6/23Friday, June 237:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	–1	=1527	47%
6/23Friday, June 237:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
6/24Saturday, June 244:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	47%
6/24Saturday, June 244:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
6/25Sunday, June 251:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	47%
6/25Sunday, June 251:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
6/27Tuesday, June 278:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–1	=1524	51%
6/27Tuesday, June 278:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+24	=1520	49%
6/28Wednesday, June 288:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	51%
6/28Wednesday, June 288:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+24	=1520	49%
6/29Thursday, June 298:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	51%
6/29Thursday, June 298:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1494	+2	+24	=1520	49%
6/30Friday, June 306:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	–2	=1432	34%
6/30Friday, June 306:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+21	=1546	66%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	34%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	66%
7/2Sunday, July 21:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	34%
7/2Sunday, July 21:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	66%
7/4Tuesday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–1	=1524	41%
7/4Tuesday, July 44:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1566	+0	+22	=1588	59%
7/5Wednesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	41%
7/5Wednesday, July 56:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	59%
7/6Thursday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	41%
7/6Thursday, July 66:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	—	1566	+0	+24	=1590	59%
7/7Friday, July 76:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–2	=1523	49%
7/7Friday, July 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	51%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	50%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	50%
7/9Sunday, July 91:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	50%
7/9Sunday, July 91:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	50%
7/14Friday, July 146:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+3	=1543	49%
7/14Friday, July 146:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+28	=1553	51%
7/15Saturday, July 151:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	49%
7/15Saturday, July 151:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	51%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	49%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	51%
7/16Sunday, July 161:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+0	=1540	49%
7/16Sunday, July 161:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	51%
7/18Tuesday, July 186:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+0	=1512	44%
7/18Tuesday, July 186:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+26	=1551	56%
7/19Wednesday, July 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+0	=1512	45%
7/19Wednesday, July 196:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	55%
7/20Thursday, July 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+0	=1512	45%
7/20Thursday, July 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	55%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–2	=1523	47%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1516	+3	+24	=1543	53%
7/22Saturday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	47%
7/22Saturday, July 227:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1516	+3	+24	=1543	53%
7/23Sunday, July 231:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	47%
7/23Sunday, July 231:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1516	+3	+24	=1543	53%
7/24Monday, July 246:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1510	+2	–3	=1509	45%
7/24Monday, July 246:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+22	=1547	55%
7/25Tuesday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1510	+2	+0	=1512	45%
7/25Tuesday, July 256:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	55%
7/26Wednesday, July 266:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1510	+2	+0	=1512	45%
7/26Wednesday, July 266:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	55%
7/28Friday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	56%
7/28Friday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+22	=1480	44%
7/29Saturday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	56%
7/29Saturday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	44%
7/30Sunday, July 301:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	56%
7/30Sunday, July 301:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+24	=1482	44%
7/31Monday, July 316:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–3	=1522	49%
7/31Monday, July 316:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	51%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	50%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	50%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	50%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	50%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	50%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+24	=1527	50%
8/4Friday, Aug. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1421	–1	–3	=1417	32%
8/4Friday, Aug. 47:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+21	=1546	68%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1421	–1	+0	=1420	32%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 56:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	68%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1421	–1	+0	=1420	32%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	68%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	–2	=1432	34%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	66%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	34%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	66%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	34%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	66%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	34%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 106:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	66%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1516	+1	–2	=1515	45%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	55%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	45%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 126:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	55%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	45%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	55%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	44%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1538	+0	+26	=1564	56%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	45%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 167:07 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1538	+0	+24	=1562	55%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	59%
8/18Friday, Aug. 187:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	41%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 194:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	59%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 194:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+24	=1458	41%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 207 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	63%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 207 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1433	+1	+0	=1434	37%
8/21Monday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	–3	=1526	47%
8/21Monday, Aug. 216:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+22	=1547	53%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+0	=1529	47%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1529	+0	+0	=1529	47%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	43%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+26	=1551	57%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	44%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	56%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+0	=1503	44%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	56%
8/28Monday, Aug. 286:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	–1	=1520	46%
8/28Monday, Aug. 286:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	54%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	+0	=1521	46%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 296:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	54%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1519	+2	+0	=1521	46%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 301:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	54%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–1	=1524	48%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+25	=1537	52%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	48%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+24	=1536	52%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	48%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 31:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1515	–3	+24	=1536	52%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–4	=1521	44%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 59:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	44%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 59:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	44%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 64:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+3	+24	=1564	56%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	–3	=1500	43%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+22	=1547	57%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	43%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	57%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1502	+1	+0	=1503	43%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	57%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	–1	=1569	53%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+26	=1551	47%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	47%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 144:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+0	=1570	53%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 144:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	47%
9/15Friday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–3	=1522	49%
9/15Friday, Sept. 158:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+23	=1526	51%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	50%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+24	=1527	50%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	50%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 172:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1501	+2	+24	=1527	50%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–2	=1523	40%
9/18Monday, Sept. 187:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+21	=1591	60%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	40%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	60%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	40%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1569	+1	+24	=1594	60%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	–3	=1525	47%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+21	=1546	53%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	47%
9/22Friday, Sept. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	47%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 234:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+0	=1528	47%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	53%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	37%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+26	=1551	63%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	37%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	63%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 286:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1457	+1	+0	=1458	37%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 286:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+24	=1549	63%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	–1	=1524	46%
9/29Friday, Sept. 297:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+24	=1552	54%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	46%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+24	=1552	54%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1524	+1	+0	=1525	46%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1525	+3	+24	=1552	54%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/20Tuesday, June 206:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1568	+19	–1	=1586	55%	4
6/20Tuesday, June 206:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1525	+3	+22	=1550	45%	2
6/18Sunday, June 184:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1524	+28	+0	=1552	66%	3
6/18Sunday, June 184:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Harris	1405	+5	+24	=1434	34%	2
6/17Saturday, June 174:07 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Sanchez	1523	–30	+0	=1493	57%	3
6/17Saturday, June 174:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1406	+16	+24	=1446	43%	2
6/16Friday, June 169:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1522	–10	–3	=1509	58%	6
6/16Friday, June 169:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Sears	1408	+21	+24	=1453	42%	1
6/15Thursday, June 153:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1521	+12	+0	=1533	52%	5
6/15Thursday, June 153:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Nelson	1504	–10	+24	=1518	48%	4
6/14Wednesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1519	+0	+0	=1519	45%	4
6/14Wednesday, June 149:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1505	+27	+24	=1556	55%	3
6/13Tuesday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1516	+29	+0	=1545	53%	15
6/13Tuesday, June 139:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Davies	1508	–10	+24	=1522	47%	3
6/12Monday, June 129:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1517	–17	–4	=1496	48%	8
6/12Monday, June 129:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Henry	1507	–19	+20	=1508	52%	9
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Ferguson	1563	–31	+0	=1532	51%	3
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1515	–13	+24	=1526	49%	7
6/10Saturday, June 104:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Miller	1560	–2	+0	=1558	50%	9
6/10Saturday, June 104:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1518	+16	+24	=1558	50%	0
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonzalez	1561	–23	–2	=1536	50%	4
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1517	–3	+24	=1538	50%	5
6/8Thursday, June 86:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Holton	1448	–19	+2	=1431	31%	2
6/8Thursday, June 86:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1517	+26	+26	=1569	69%	3
6/6Tuesday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Alexander	1449	–17	+0	=1432	37%	0
6/6Tuesday, June 66:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1516	–16	+24	=1524	63%	1
6/5Monday, June 56:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Wentz	1450	–24	–3	=1423	32%	3
6/5Monday, June 56:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1515	+17	+22	=1554	68%	8
6/4Sunday, June 41:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1512	–1	+0	=1511	55%	11
6/4Sunday, June 41:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Williams	1444	+6	+24	=1474	45%	3
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1511	–14	+0	=1497	52%	4
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gore	1445	+16	+24	=1485	48%	2
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1512	+36	–2	=1546	60%	7
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1444	+10	+22	=1476	40%	8
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1513	–15	+0	=1498	37%	2
6/1Thursday, June 11:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Scherzer	1532	+34	+24	=1590	63%	4
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1515	+18	+0	=1533	49%	1
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Carrasco	1531	–15	+24	=1540	51%	4
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1516	–4	–1	=1511	45%	0
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1529	–9	+22	=1542	55%	2
5/28Sunday, May 287 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Covey	1517	–55	+0	=1462	30%	4
5/28Sunday, May 287 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1560	+26	+24	=1610	70%	11
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1516	+28	+0	=1544	45%	2
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Morton	1562	–5	+24	=1581	55%	1
5/26Friday, May 267:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1514	–14	+0	=1500	42%	6
5/26Friday, May 267:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Shuster	1563	–29	+24	=1558	58%	4
5/25Thursday, May 257:20 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1516	+21	–3	=1534	49%	5
5/25Thursday, May 257:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Dodd	1562	–44	+24	=1542	51%	8
5/24Wednesday, May 241:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1498	+47	+0	=1545	51%	5
5/24Wednesday, May 241:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1515	–4	+24	=1535	49%	6
5/23Tuesday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Nelson	1497	–14	+0	=1483	44%	4
5/23Tuesday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1516	–17	+24	=1523	56%	3
5/22Monday, May 226:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Henry	1495	–23	–2	=1470	36%	6
5/22Monday, May 226:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1518	+30	+24	=1572	64%	3
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1491	+14	+0	=1505	48%	1
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1517	–20	+24	=1521	52%	2
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1493	–3	+0	=1490	40%	3
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1515	+18	+24	=1557	60%	12
5/19Friday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Stroman	1490	+12	–1	=1501	44%	10
5/19Friday, May 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1519	+0	+22	=1541	56%	1
5/17Wednesday, May 173:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1520	–15	+0	=1505	47%	4
5/17Wednesday, May 173:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Stripling	1499	+5	+24	=1528	53%	7
5/16Tuesday, May 169:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1521	+31	+0	=1552	52%	3
5/16Tuesday, May 169:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Cobb	1498	+16	+24	=1538	48%	4
5/15Monday, May 159:45 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Brogdon	1523	–32	–3	=1488	47%	3
5/15Monday, May 159:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1496	–8	+21	=1509	53%	6
5/14Sunday, May 143:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1525	+16	+0	=1541	57%	0
5/14Sunday, May 143:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1447	+22	+24	=1493	43%	4
5/13Saturday, May 138:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Suarez	1524	–1	+0	=1523	58%	7
5/13Saturday, May 138:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Feltner	1448	–2	+24	=1470	42%	4
5/12Friday, May 128:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1523	–18	–2	=1503	55%	6
5/12Friday, May 128:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1450	–4	+23	=1469	45%	3
5/10Wednesday, May 104:05 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Gausman	1545	+17	+0	=1562	48%	1
5/10Wednesday, May 104:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1522	+29	+24	=1575	52%	2
5/9Tuesday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Manoah	1547	+16	+0	=1563	50%	4
5/9Tuesday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1520	+17	+26	=1563	50%	8
5/7Sunday, May 71:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Houck	1523	+16	+0	=1539	53%	1
5/7Sunday, May 71:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1517	–20	+24	=1521	47%	6
5/6Saturday, May 67:15 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1521	–1	+0	=1520	50%	7
5/6Saturday, May 67:15 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1519	–22	+24	=1521	50%	4
5/5Friday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1519	+12	–2	=1529	44%	5
5/5Friday, May 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1520	+32	+22	=1574	56%	3
5/3Wednesday, May 34:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1522	+18	+0	=1540	48%	6
5/3Wednesday, May 34:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Stone	1561	–28	+24	=1557	52%	10
5/2Tuesday, May 210:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1525	–16	+0	=1509	38%	1
5/2Tuesday, May 210:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1558	+9	+24	=1591	62%	13
5/1Monday, May 110:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1527	–14	–3	=1510	38%	4
5/1Monday, May 110:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1556	+16	+24	=1596	62%	13
4/30Sunday, April 307 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1528	–22	+0	=1506	42%	3
4/30Sunday, April 307 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1553	–15	+24	=1562	58%	4
4/29Saturday, April 295:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1526	+26	+0	=1552	42%	6
4/29Saturday, April 295:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1556	+28	+24	=1608	58%	1
4/28Friday, April 288:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1524	+12	–3	=1533	40%	3
4/28Friday, April 288:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1558	+21	+23	=1602	60%	1
4/27Thursday, April 271:05 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1512	+6	+0	=1518	49%	0
4/27Thursday, April 271:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1523	–22	+24	=1525	51%	1
4/26Wednesday, April 266:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gilbert	1513	+9	+0	=1522	48%	5
4/26Wednesday, April 266:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1522	–10	+24	=1536	52%	6
4/25Tuesday, April 256:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1512	–18	–2	=1492	45%	5
4/25Tuesday, April 256:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1523	–21	+26	=1528	55%	3
4/23Sunday, April 2312:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Urena	1432	–22	+0	=1410	28%	3
4/23Sunday, April 2312:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1522	+27	+24	=1573	72%	9
4/22Saturday, April 223:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1433	+19	+0	=1452	41%	3
4/22Saturday, April 223:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Sanchez	1521	–29	+24	=1516	59%	4
4/21Friday, April 217:05 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Davis	1433	–4	+0	=1429	32%	3
4/21Friday, April 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1521	+12	+24	=1557	68%	4
4/20Thursday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Feltner	1430	–7	–4	=1419	36%	5
4/20Thursday, April 206:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1524	–25	+21	=1520	64%	0
4/19Wednesday, April 192:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1522	–10	+0	=1512	50%	5
4/19Wednesday, April 192:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Clevinger	1493	–8	+24	=1509	50%	2
4/18Tuesday, April 187:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1524	–22	+0	=1502	49%	0
4/18Tuesday, April 187:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1491	–7	+24	=1508	51%	3
4/18Tuesday, April 184:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1522	+30	+0	=1552	54%	7
4/18Tuesday, April 184:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1492	+4	+26	=1522	46%	4
4/16Sunday, April 161:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1520	+13	+0	=1533	59%	14
4/16Sunday, April 161:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1458	–14	+24	=1468	41%	3
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1524	–24	+0	=1500	54%	0
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1453	–7	+24	=1470	46%	13
4/14Friday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1522	–14	+0	=1508	55%	8
4/14Friday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1455	–8	+24	=1471	45%	3
4/13Thursday, April 136:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1524	–21	–2	=1501	50%	2
4/13Thursday, April 136:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1453	+28	+22	=1503	50%	6
4/12Wednesday, April 124:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Cabrera	1486	–7	+0	=1479	36%	3
4/12Wednesday, April 124:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1526	+28	+24	=1578	64%	2
4/11Tuesday, April 116:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Luzardo	1484	+11	+0	=1495	40%	8
4/11Tuesday, April 116:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1528	+16	+24	=1568	60%	4
4/10Monday, April 106:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1488	+43	–1	=1530	51%	3
4/10Monday, April 106:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1524	–28	+24	=1520	49%	15
4/9Sunday, April 91:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1453	–4	+0	=1449	38%	6
4/9Sunday, April 91:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1526	–14	+24	=1536	62%	4
4/8Saturday, April 84:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1454	+22	+0	=1476	43%	2
4/8Saturday, April 84:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1525	–22	+24	=1527	57%	3
4/7Friday, April 73:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1455	+15	+3	=1473	35%	2
4/7Friday, April 73:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1524	+30	+25	=1579	65%	5
4/5Wednesday, April 51:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1525	+17	+0	=1542	42%	2
4/5Wednesday, April 51:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cole	1559	+17	+24	=1600	58%	4
4/4Tuesday, April 47:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1523	–32	+0	=1491	39%	4
4/4Tuesday, April 47:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	German	1561	–16	+24	=1569	61%	1
4/3Monday, April 37:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1525	–12	–3	=1510	38%	1
4/3Monday, April 37:05 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Cortes	1559	+12	+24	=1595	62%	8
4/2Sunday, April 27 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1526	–23	+0	=1503	46%	1
4/2Sunday, April 27 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1503	+4	+24	=1531	54%	2
4/1Saturday, April 14:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1530	+34	+2	=1566	57%	3
4/1Saturday, April 14:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Eovaldi	1499	–5	+26	=1520	43%	16
3/30Thursday, March 304:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1532	+20	–3	=1549	48%	7
3/30Thursday, March 304:05 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	deGrom	1497	+44	+24	=1565	52%	11

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.