Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Pirates have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers32-28	0.5	70%	59%
Pirates Pirates32-27	—	32%	20%
Cardinals Cardinals24-36	8.5	18%	9%
Cubs Cubs26-33	6.0	16%	9%
Reds Reds27-33	5.5	5%	3%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/6Tuesday, June 67:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Kaprielian	1393	+18	+0	=1411	34%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1476	+23	+24	=1523	66%
6/7Wednesday, June 712:35 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	—	1393	+5	+0	=1398	36%
6/7Wednesday, June 712:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	64%
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	–2	=1530	54%
6/9Friday, June 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+26	=1503	46%
6/10Saturday, June 104:05 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	54%
6/10Saturday, June 104:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	46%
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+0	=1532	54%
6/11Sunday, June 111:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	46%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	46%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	54%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
6/15Thursday, June 158:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
6/15Thursday, June 158:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
6/16Friday, June 168:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–1	=1476	41%
6/16Friday, June 168:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	59%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	59%
6/18Sunday, June 182:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
6/18Sunday, June 182:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	59%
6/19Monday, June 197:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	48%
6/19Monday, June 197:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	52%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
6/22Thursday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–3	=1474	44%
6/22Thursday, June 226:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	44%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	44%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	44%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+24	=1517	56%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	–2	=1535	55%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+23	=1500	45%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+0	=1537	55%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	45%
6/29Thursday, June 2912:35 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+0	=1537	55%
6/29Thursday, June 2912:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	45%
6/30Friday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	–2	=1514	52%
6/30Friday, June 307:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	52%
7/1Saturday, July 14:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
7/2Sunday, July 21:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	52%
7/2Sunday, July 21:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
7/3Monday, July 310:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–4	=1473	35%
7/3Monday, July 310:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+21	=1582	65%
7/4Tuesday, July 49:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	35%
7/4Tuesday, July 49:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	65%
7/5Wednesday, July 510:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	35%
7/5Wednesday, July 510:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	65%
7/6Thursday, July 610:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	35%
7/6Thursday, July 610:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	65%
7/7Friday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–2	=1475	43%
7/7Friday, July 79:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	57%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	43%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	57%
7/9Sunday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	43%
7/9Sunday, July 94:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	57%
7/14Friday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+3	=1511	51%
7/14Friday, July 147:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+27	=1504	49%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	51%
7/15Saturday, July 157:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	49%
7/16Sunday, July 1612:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	51%
7/16Sunday, July 1612:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	49%
7/17Monday, July 177:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	–3	=1513	52%
7/17Monday, July 177:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:05 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+0	=1516	52%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
7/19Wednesday, July 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+0	=1516	52%
7/19Wednesday, July 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
7/21Friday, July 219:38 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–2	=1475	41%
7/21Friday, July 219:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+26	=1539	59%
7/22Saturday, July 229:07 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
7/22Saturday, July 229:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+24	=1537	59%
7/23Sunday, July 234:07 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
7/23Sunday, July 234:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+24	=1537	59%
7/24Monday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–1	=1476	39%
7/24Monday, July 249:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+20	=1557	61%
7/25Tuesday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	38%
7/25Tuesday, July 259:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	62%
7/26Wednesday, July 264:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	38%
7/26Wednesday, July 264:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+24	=1561	62%
7/28Friday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	53%
7/28Friday, July 287:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	47%
7/29Saturday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	52%
7/29Saturday, July 297:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
7/30Sunday, July 301:35 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+0	=1517	52%
7/30Sunday, July 301:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	–1	=1448	42%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 17:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+26	=1503	58%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 212:35 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+0	=1449	43%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 212:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	57%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–2	=1475	41%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 37:15 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+21	=1537	59%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
8/4Friday, Aug. 48:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	59%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	59%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 62:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	59%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	–2	=1558	58%
8/7Monday, Aug. 77:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	42%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	58%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 87:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	42%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	58%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 97:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	42%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	58%
8/10Thursday, Aug. 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	42%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	44%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	56%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	44%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	56%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	44%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	56%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–2	=1475	39%
8/14Monday, Aug. 147:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	61%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	61%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 161:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	61%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–1	=1476	39%
8/18Friday, Aug. 188:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+26	=1554	61%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 197:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	61%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	39%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 202:10 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+24	=1552	61%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–3	=1506	51%
8/21Monday, Aug. 217:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+21	=1498	49%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	51%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 227:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	49%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	51%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 2312:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	49%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	–2	=1484	48%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 247:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
8/25Friday, Aug. 257:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 267:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	48%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 271:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	52%
8/28Monday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–3	=1474	53%
8/28Monday, Aug. 288:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+20	=1453	47%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	53%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 298:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	47%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	53%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 308:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	47%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	42%
9/1Friday, Sept. 18:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+26	=1535	58%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	42%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 27:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	58%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	42%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 32:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	58%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	–2	=1514	52%
9/4Monday, Sept. 46:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+21	=1498	48%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	52%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 612:35 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	52%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 612:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	48%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	35%
9/8Friday, Sept. 87:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	65%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 97:20 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	35%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 97:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	65%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:30 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	35%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:30 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+24	=1584	65%
9/11Monday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	–2	=1440	42%
9/11Monday, Sept. 116:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	58%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	42%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	58%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	42%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	58%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 1412:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	42%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 1412:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	58%
9/15Friday, Sept. 156:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	–2	=1563	59%
9/15Friday, Sept. 156:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	41%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 166:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	59%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 166:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	41%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:35 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	—	1565	+0	+0	=1565	59%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	41%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 197:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	55%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 207:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	45%
9/21Thursday, Sept. 217:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	55%
9/22Friday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–2	=1475	49%
9/22Friday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+26	=1485	51%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	49%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	51%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	49%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	51%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+26	=1543	59%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	59%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 286:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	41%
9/28Thursday, Sept. 286:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	—	1516	+1	+24	=1541	59%
9/29Friday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–2	=1491	49%
9/29Friday, Sept. 296:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+22	=1499	51%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	49%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 306:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	51%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:05 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	49%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	51%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/5Monday, June 57:05 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Sears	1394	+22	–3	=1413	39%	4
6/5Monday, June 57:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1475	–6	+24	=1493	61%	5
6/4Sunday, June 411:35 a.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1508	+24	+0	=1532	55%	1
6/4Sunday, June 411:35 a.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1474	+2	+24	=1500	45%	2
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1509	+10	+0	=1519	55%	3
6/3Saturday, June 34:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ortiz	1473	–15	+24	=1482	45%	4
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Flaherty	1511	+7	+2	=1520	53%	5
6/2Friday, June 27:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1472	+3	+22	=1497	47%	7
5/31Wednesday, May 313:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1469	+25	+0	=1494	45%	9
5/31Wednesday, May 313:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Wood	1512	–7	+24	=1529	55%	4
5/30Tuesday, May 309:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1468	–7	+0	=1461	39%	2
5/30Tuesday, May 309:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	Brebbia (open)	1513	+2	+24	=1539	61%	1
5/29Monday, May 295:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1470	+4	–3	=1471	42%	4
5/29Monday, May 295:05 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	DeSclafani	1510	–2	+20	=1528	58%	14
5/28Sunday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ortiz	1472	–14	+0	=1458	43%	3
5/28Sunday, May 284:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Gonzales	1519	–33	+24	=1510	57%	6
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1473	–7	+0	=1466	37%	0
5/27Saturday, May 274:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Castillo	1518	+21	+24	=1563	63%	5
5/26Friday, May 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1470	+26	–2	=1494	41%	11
5/26Friday, May 2610:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	Kirby	1520	+12	+24	=1556	59%	6
5/24Wednesday, May 2412:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1525	–14	+0	=1511	54%	3
5/24Wednesday, May 2412:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1471	–10	+24	=1485	46%	2
5/23Tuesday, May 236:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Eovaldi	1523	+12	+0	=1535	55%	6
5/23Tuesday, May 236:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1473	+3	+24	=1500	45%	1
5/22Monday, May 226:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Dunning	1524	–12	–3	=1509	55%	4
5/22Monday, May 226:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ortiz	1472	–23	+24	=1473	45%	6
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Kelly	1493	+25	+0	=1518	53%	8
5/21Sunday, May 211:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1474	+1	+24	=1499	47%	3
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Pfaadt	1491	–31	+0	=1460	41%	4
5/20Saturday, May 204:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1475	+25	+24	=1524	59%	3
5/19Friday, May 196:35 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	Gallen	1496	+57	–2	=1551	60%	3
5/19Friday, May 196:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1471	–12	+24	=1483	40%	13
5/17Wednesday, May 171:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1468	+1	+0	=1469	44%	8
5/17Wednesday, May 171:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Rodriguez	1457	+30	+24	=1511	56%	0
5/16Tuesday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ortiz	1469	–14	+0	=1455	46%	0
5/16Tuesday, May 166:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	Lorenzen	1455	+4	+26	=1485	54%	4
5/14Sunday, May 141:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1467	+20	+0	=1487	45%	4
5/14Sunday, May 141:35 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Gibson	1504	–7	+24	=1521	55%	0
5/13Saturday, May 137:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1468	+3	+0	=1471	40%	0
5/13Saturday, May 137:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Wells	1503	+15	+24	=1542	60%	2
5/12Friday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1469	–11	+0	=1458	40%	3
5/12Friday, May 127:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	Bradish	1501	+3	+26	=1530	60%	6
5/10Wednesday, May 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Senzatela	1449	+6	+0	=1455	44%	4
5/10Wednesday, May 1012:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1471	+3	+24	=1498	56%	3
5/9Tuesday, May 96:35 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Seabold	1444	–36	+0	=1408	38%	10
5/9Tuesday, May 96:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Ortiz	1475	–6	+24	=1493	62%	1
5/8Monday, May 86:35 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1446	+23	–2	=1467	44%	0
5/8Monday, May 86:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1474	+14	+24	=1512	56%	2
5/7Sunday, May 71:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Kikuchi	1544	–28	+0	=1516	51%	10
5/7Sunday, May 71:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1477	+8	+24	=1509	49%	1
5/6Saturday, May 66:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Berrios	1542	–12	+0	=1530	55%	8
5/6Saturday, May 66:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1479	–7	+24	=1496	45%	2
5/5Friday, May 56:35 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	Bassitt	1540	+4	–2	=1542	55%	4
5/5Friday, May 56:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1481	+4	+21	=1506	45%	0
5/4Thursday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1481	–6	+0	=1475	37%	2
5/4Thursday, May 41:10 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Eflin	1559	–16	+24	=1567	63%	3
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1483	+12	+0	=1495	36%	1
5/3Wednesday, May 36:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	McClanahan	1558	+16	+24	=1598	64%	8
5/2Tuesday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1484	+9	–1	=1492	43%	1
5/2Tuesday, May 26:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Guerra	1556	–36	+23	=1543	57%	4
4/30Sunday, April 301:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1487	–2	+0	=1485	53%	2
4/30Sunday, April 301:35 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Gray	1431	+8	+24	=1463	47%	7
4/29Saturday, April 296:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1483	–12	+0	=1471	53%	16
4/29Saturday, April 296:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Kuhl	1435	–8	+24	=1451	47%	1
4/29Saturday, April 291:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1481	+2	+0	=1483	56%	6
4/29Saturday, April 291:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	Corbin	1437	–19	+24	=1442	44%	3
4/27Thursday, April 2712:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Urias	1554	+14	+0	=1568	58%	2
4/27Thursday, April 2712:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1479	+7	+24	=1510	42%	6
4/26Wednesday, April 266:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1558	+17	+0	=1575	60%	1
4/26Wednesday, April 266:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1476	+5	+24	=1505	40%	8
4/25Tuesday, April 256:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Syndergaard	1557	–13	+0	=1544	56%	8
4/25Tuesday, April 256:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1476	+2	+26	=1504	44%	7
4/23Sunday, April 231:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1450	+23	+0	=1473	49%	0
4/23Sunday, April 231:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1475	–16	+24	=1483	51%	2
4/22Saturday, April 226:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1451	–22	+0	=1429	40%	1
4/22Saturday, April 226:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1474	+4	+24	=1502	60%	2
4/21Friday, April 216:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1452	+1	+0	=1453	42%	2
4/21Friday, April 216:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1473	+8	+24	=1505	58%	4
4/20Thursday, April 206:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1453	–3	–2	=1448	43%	3
4/20Thursday, April 206:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1472	+4	+21	=1497	57%	4
4/19Wednesday, April 193:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1469	+1	+0	=1470	52%	14
4/19Wednesday, April 193:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1433	–5	+24	=1452	48%	3
4/18Tuesday, April 188:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1468	–16	+0	=1452	52%	5
4/18Tuesday, April 188:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Urena	1435	–21	+24	=1438	48%	3
4/17Monday, April 178:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1464	+5	–3	=1466	47%	14
4/17Monday, April 178:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Freeland	1438	+26	+21	=1485	53%	3
4/16Sunday, April 162:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1465	+12	+0	=1477	40%	4
4/16Sunday, April 162:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1516	+6	+24	=1546	60%	5
4/15Saturday, April 152:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1463	+4	+0	=1467	40%	6
4/15Saturday, April 152:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1518	–5	+24	=1537	60%	3
4/14Friday, April 148:15 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1464	–2	+0	=1462	41%	0
4/14Friday, April 148:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Woodford	1517	–13	+24	=1528	59%	3
4/13Thursday, April 137:45 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1461	–19	–3	=1439	32%	5
4/13Thursday, April 137:45 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1520	+26	+21	=1567	68%	0
4/12Wednesday, April 1212:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Urquidy	1551	–6	+0	=1545	57%	7
4/12Wednesday, April 1212:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1463	+7	+24	=1494	43%	0
4/11Tuesday, April 116:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Javier	1553	+32	+0	=1585	62%	4
4/11Tuesday, April 116:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1461	+15	+24	=1500	38%	7
4/10Monday, April 106:35 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	Valdez	1551	+25	–3	=1573	61%	8
4/10Monday, April 106:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1463	+13	+24	=1500	39%	2
4/9Sunday, April 91:35 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1498	–12	+0	=1486	51%	0
4/9Sunday, April 91:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1462	–7	+24	=1479	49%	1
4/8Saturday, April 86:35 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Clevinger	1495	–8	+0	=1487	52%	11
4/8Saturday, April 86:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1464	–15	+24	=1473	48%	5
4/7Friday, April 74:12 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Giolito	1497	–3	–2	=1492	49%	9
4/7Friday, April 74:12 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1462	+12	+24	=1498	51%	13
4/5Wednesday, April 51:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1460	+8	+0	=1468	41%	4
4/5Wednesday, April 51:35 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Kluber	1507	–1	+24	=1530	59%	1
4/4Tuesday, April 47:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1458	+10	+0	=1468	41%	4
4/4Tuesday, April 47:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Pivetta	1509	–1	+24	=1532	59%	1
4/3Monday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Oviedo	1457	–4	–3	=1450	41%	7
4/3Monday, April 37:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Crawford	1510	–20	+24	=1514	59%	6
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1458	–15	+0	=1443	47%	1
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1455	–15	+24	=1464	53%	3
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1460	+14	+2	=1476	46%	2
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1454	+23	+26	=1503	54%	6
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1459	+9	–2	=1466	46%	5
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1455	+19	+24	=1498	54%	4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.