Updated Jun. 5, 2023, at 11:44 PM

2023 MLB Predictions

Updated after every game.

The Reds have a <1% chance of winning the World Series.

NL Central standings

	Games back	Chance to make playoffs	Make playoffs
Brewers Brewers32-28	0.5	70%	59%
Pirates Pirates32-27	—	32%	20%
Cardinals Cardinals24-36	8.5	18%	9%
Cubs Cubs26-33	6.0	16%	9%
Reds Reds27-33	5.5	5%	3%

Pitcher ratings

Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season, by rolling game score — our model’s prediction of how a pitcher will perform in a typical start. Pitchers with larger bubbles have recorded more starts.

Upcoming games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning
6/6Tuesday, June 67:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	Gonsolin	1563	+22	–2	=1583	65%
6/6Tuesday, June 67:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1457	–2	+24	=1479	35%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	61%
6/7Wednesday, June 77:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	39%
6/8Thursday, June 812:35 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+0	=1561	61%
6/8Thursday, June 812:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	39%
6/9Friday, June 98:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	39%
6/9Friday, June 98:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+23	=1532	61%
6/10Saturday, June 102:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
6/10Saturday, June 102:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%
6/11Sunday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
6/11Sunday, June 112:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%
6/12Monday, June 128:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	50%
6/12Monday, June 128:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+21	=1454	50%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	50%
6/13Tuesday, June 138:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	50%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	50%
6/14Wednesday, June 148:10 p.m. Eastern	KCRoyals	—	1433	+0	+24	=1457	50%
6/16Friday, June 168:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–1	=1458	32%
6/16Friday, June 168:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	68%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	32%
6/17Saturday, June 174:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	68%
6/18Sunday, June 182:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	32%
6/18Sunday, June 182:10 p.m. Eastern	HOUAstros	—	1564	–1	+24	=1587	68%
6/19Monday, June 197:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	–2	=1445	45%
6/19Monday, June 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+21	=1480	55%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	45%
6/20Tuesday, June 207:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	55%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:35 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	—	1446	+1	+0	=1447	45%
6/21Wednesday, June 2112:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	55%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	–2	=1558	60%
6/23Friday, June 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+26	=1485	40%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	61%
6/24Saturday, June 244:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	39%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	—	1560	+0	+0	=1560	61%
6/25Sunday, June 251:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	39%
6/26Monday, June 267:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	39%
6/26Monday, June 267:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	61%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
6/27Tuesday, June 277:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	60%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
6/28Wednesday, June 287:05 p.m. Eastern	BALOrioles	—	1506	+1	+24	=1531	60%
6/30Friday, June 307:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	–2	=1535	57%
6/30Friday, June 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	43%
7/1Saturday, July 11:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+0	=1537	58%
7/1Saturday, July 11:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	42%
7/2Sunday, July 21:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	—	1537	+0	+0	=1537	58%
7/2Sunday, July 21:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	42%
7/3Monday, July 36:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	49%
7/3Monday, July 36:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+22	=1464	51%
7/4Tuesday, July 411:05 a.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	49%
7/4Tuesday, July 411:05 a.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	51%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	49%
7/5Wednesday, July 57:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	51%
7/6Thursday, July 61:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	49%
7/6Thursday, July 61:05 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+24	=1466	51%
7/7Friday, July 78:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–3	=1456	38%
7/7Friday, July 78:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	62%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	39%
7/8Saturday, July 84:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	61%
7/9Sunday, July 92:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	39%
7/9Sunday, July 92:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	61%
7/14Friday, July 147:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+5	=1521	55%
7/14Friday, July 147:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+29	=1488	45%
7/15Saturday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	55%
7/15Saturday, July 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	45%
7/16Sunday, July 161:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+0	=1516	55%
7/16Sunday, July 161:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	45%
7/17Monday, July 177:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	–2	=1506	53%
7/17Monday, July 177:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	47%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	54%
7/18Tuesday, July 187:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:10 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	54%
7/19Wednesday, July 197:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
7/20Thursday, July 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+0	=1508	54%
7/20Thursday, July 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	–2	=1499	52%
7/21Friday, July 217:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	48%
7/22Saturday, July 224:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	53%
7/22Saturday, July 224:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	47%
7/23Sunday, July 231:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+0	=1501	53%
7/23Sunday, July 231:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	47%
7/24Monday, July 248:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	38%
7/24Monday, July 248:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	62%
7/25Tuesday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	39%
7/25Tuesday, July 258:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	61%
7/26Wednesday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	39%
7/26Wednesday, July 262:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	—	1520	–4	+24	=1540	61%
7/28Friday, July 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	32%
7/28Friday, July 2810:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+26	=1587	68%
7/29Saturday, July 299:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	33%
7/29Saturday, July 299:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	67%
7/30Sunday, July 304:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	33%
7/30Sunday, July 304:10 p.m. Eastern	LADDodgers	—	1563	–2	+24	=1585	67%
7/31Monday, July 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–4	=1455	42%
7/31Monday, July 318:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+22	=1508	58%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	43%
8/1Tuesday, Aug. 18:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	57%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	43%
8/2Wednesday, Aug. 28:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	57%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 38:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	43%
8/3Thursday, Aug. 38:05 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+24	=1510	57%
8/4Friday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	44%
8/4Friday, Aug. 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+22	=1481	56%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	44%
8/5Saturday, Aug. 54:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	56%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:40 p.m. Eastern	WSHNationals	—	1441	+1	+0	=1442	44%
8/6Sunday, Aug. 61:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	56%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	–3	=1490	51%
8/7Monday, Aug. 76:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	49%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	51%
8/8Tuesday, Aug. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	49%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	—	1493	+0	+0	=1493	51%
8/9Wednesday, Aug. 912:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	49%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	44%
8/11Friday, Aug. 117:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	56%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	44%
8/12Saturday, Aug. 127:05 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	56%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	44%
8/13Sunday, Aug. 131:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+24	=1501	56%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	–1	=1515	55%
8/15Tuesday, Aug. 156:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	45%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+0	=1516	55%
8/16Wednesday, Aug. 166:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	45%
8/18Friday, Aug. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	58%
8/18Friday, Aug. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+26	=1485	42%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	59%
8/19Saturday, Aug. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	41%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 201:40 p.m. Eastern	TORBlue Jays	—	1544	+0	+0	=1544	59%
8/20Sunday, Aug. 201:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	41%
8/21Monday, Aug. 219:38 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–4	=1455	38%
8/21Monday, Aug. 219:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+24	=1537	62%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 229:38 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	39%
8/22Tuesday, Aug. 229:38 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+24	=1537	61%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	39%
8/23Wednesday, Aug. 234:07 p.m. Eastern	LAAAngels	—	1511	+2	+24	=1537	61%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 249:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	40%
8/24Thursday, Aug. 249:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+26	=1527	60%
8/25Friday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	41%
8/25Friday, Aug. 259:40 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	59%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	41%
8/26Saturday, Aug. 268:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	59%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 274:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	41%
8/27Sunday, Aug. 274:10 p.m. Eastern	ARIDiamondbacks	—	1499	+2	+24	=1525	59%
8/28Monday, Aug. 289:45 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–3	=1456	39%
8/28Monday, Aug. 289:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+24	=1532	61%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 299:45 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
8/29Tuesday, Aug. 299:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+24	=1532	60%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 303:45 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
8/30Wednesday, Aug. 303:45 p.m. Eastern	SFGiants	—	1507	+1	+24	=1532	60%
9/1Friday, Sept. 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	51%
9/1Friday, Sept. 11:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+22	=1481	49%
9/1Friday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	50%
9/1Friday, Sept. 16:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	50%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	50%
9/2Saturday, Sept. 26:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	50%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	—	1485	+1	+0	=1486	50%
9/3Sunday, Sept. 312:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	50%
9/4Monday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	–3	=1508	54%
9/4Monday, Sept. 44:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+0	=1511	54%
9/5Tuesday, Sept. 56:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 66:40 p.m. Eastern	SEAMariners	—	1510	+1	+0	=1511	54%
9/6Wednesday, Sept. 66:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
9/8Friday, Sept. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	–2	=1507	53%
9/8Friday, Sept. 86:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+26	=1485	47%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	54%
9/9Saturday, Sept. 96:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+0	=1509	54%
9/10Sunday, Sept. 101:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	46%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	48%
9/12Tuesday, Sept. 126:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+26	=1475	52%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	48%
9/13Wednesday, Sept. 136:40 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	52%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	48%
9/14Thursday, Sept. 141:10 p.m. Eastern	DETTigers	—	1449	+0	+24	=1473	52%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	–2	=1457	36%
9/15Friday, Sept. 157:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	64%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	36%
9/16Saturday, Sept. 167:10 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	64%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	36%
9/17Sunday, Sept. 171:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	—	1529	+3	+24	=1556	64%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	–2	=1526	57%
9/18Monday, Sept. 186:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+21	=1480	43%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	57%
9/19Tuesday, Sept. 196:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	43%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	MINTwins	—	1527	+1	+0	=1528	57%
9/20Wednesday, Sept. 2012:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	43%
9/22Friday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	–2	=1475	49%
9/22Friday, Sept. 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+26	=1485	51%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	49%
9/23Saturday, Sept. 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	51%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	—	1476	+1	+0	=1477	49%
9/24Sunday, Sept. 241:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+24	=1483	51%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	38%
9/26Tuesday, Sept. 266:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+26	=1542	62%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	38%
9/27Wednesday, Sept. 276:10 p.m. Eastern	CLEGuardians	—	1513	+3	+24	=1540	62%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
9/29Friday, Sept. 298:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+22	=1531	60%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
9/30Saturday, Sept. 307:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	—	1457	+2	+0	=1459	40%
10/1Sunday, Oct. 13:15 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	—	1506	+3	+24	=1533	60%

Team rating

Completed games

Date	Team	Starting pitcher	Team rating	Starting pitcher adj.	Travel, rest & home field adj.	Pregame team rating	Win prob.Chance of winning	Score
6/5Monday, June 57:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Teheran	1521	–30	+0	=1491	53%	0
6/5Monday, June 57:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Abbott	1455	–6	+24	=1473	47%	2
6/4Sunday, June 41:40 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Houser	1519	–20	+0	=1499	53%	5
6/4Sunday, June 41:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lively	1457	+0	+24	=1481	47%	1
6/3Saturday, June 34:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Rea	1518	–27	+0	=1491	53%	10
6/3Saturday, June 34:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1458	–13	+24	=1469	47%	8
6/2Friday, June 25:10 p.m. Eastern	MILBrewers	Burnes	1517	+22	–2	=1537	59%	5
6/2Friday, June 25:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Williamson	1459	–7	+21	=1473	41%	4
6/1Thursday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1461	+25	+0	=1486	40%	2
6/1Thursday, June 17:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Sale	1515	+21	+24	=1560	60%	8
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1459	–2	+0	=1457	37%	5
5/31Wednesday, May 317:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Paxton	1516	+10	+24	=1550	63%	4
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lively	1458	–5	–1	=1452	38%	9
5/30Tuesday, May 307:10 p.m. Eastern	BOSRed Sox	Bello	1518	–5	+22	=1535	62%	8
5/28Sunday, May 282:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1456	–11	+0	=1445	39%	8
5/28Sunday, May 282:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1485	+11	+24	=1520	61%	5
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Williamson	1454	–1	+0	=1453	43%	8
5/27Saturday, May 277:15 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Taillon	1487	–11	+24	=1500	57%	5
5/26Friday, May 262:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1450	+21	–2	=1469	41%	9
5/26Friday, May 262:20 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Steele	1490	+17	+24	=1531	59%	0
5/25Thursday, May 2512:35 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Mikolas	1514	+16	+0	=1530	59%	2
5/25Thursday, May 2512:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1451	–6	+24	=1469	41%	1
5/24Wednesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Matz	1517	+0	+0	=1517	57%	3
5/24Wednesday, May 246:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lively	1448	–4	+24	=1468	43%	10
5/23Tuesday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Wainwright	1516	+9	+0	=1525	58%	8
5/23Tuesday, May 236:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1449	–4	+24	=1469	42%	5
5/22Monday, May 226:40 p.m. Eastern	STLCardinals	Montgomery	1517	+16	–2	=1531	58%	5
5/22Monday, May 226:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Williamson	1448	+4	+24	=1476	42%	6
5/21Sunday, May 2111:35 a.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Severino	1560	+12	+0	=1572	61%	4
5/21Sunday, May 2111:35 a.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1449	+21	+24	=1494	39%	1
5/20Saturday, May 204:10 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Brito	1559	–41	+0	=1518	57%	7
5/20Saturday, May 204:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1450	–5	+24	=1469	43%	4
5/19Friday, May 196:40 p.m. Eastern	NYYYankees	Schmidt	1557	–42	–2	=1513	57%	6
5/19Friday, May 196:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lively	1452	–9	+23	=1466	43%	2
5/17Wednesday, May 173:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1454	–1	+0	=1453	47%	6
5/17Wednesday, May 173:10 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Gomber	1449	–2	+24	=1471	53%	11
5/16Tuesday, May 168:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Williamson	1453	–3	+0	=1450	48%	3
5/16Tuesday, May 168:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Anderson	1451	–11	+24	=1464	52%	1
5/15Monday, May 158:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1454	+26	–4	=1476	55%	8
5/15Monday, May 158:40 p.m. Eastern	COLRockies	Seabold	1449	–32	+24	=1441	45%	9
5/14Sunday, May 141:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1455	–6	+0	=1449	44%	1
5/14Sunday, May 141:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Garrett	1483	–15	+24	=1492	56%	3
5/13Saturday, May 131:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Law (open)	1454	+1	+0	=1455	38%	6
5/13Saturday, May 131:10 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Alcantara	1484	+34	+24	=1542	62%	5
5/12Friday, May 126:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1452	+2	–3	=1451	45%	7
5/12Friday, May 126:40 p.m. Eastern	MIAMarlins	Perez	1486	–24	+22	=1484	55%	4
5/11Thursday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Senga	1537	–15	+0	=1522	58%	0
5/11Thursday, May 1112:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Law	1449	–8	+24	=1465	42%	5
5/10Wednesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Verlander	1536	+49	+0	=1585	62%	2
5/10Wednesday, May 106:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1450	+27	+24	=1501	38%	1
5/9Tuesday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	NYMMets	Peterson	1537	–16	–1	=1520	58%	6
5/9Tuesday, May 96:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1449	–7	+26	=1468	42%	7
5/7Sunday, May 74:10 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Kopech	1479	–9	+0	=1470	48%	17
5/7Sunday, May 74:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1453	+8	+24	=1485	52%	4
5/6Saturday, May 66:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Clevinger	1480	–13	+0	=1467	47%	3
5/6Saturday, May 66:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1452	+15	+24	=1491	53%	5
5/5Friday, May 56:40 p.m. Eastern	CHWWhite Sox	Lynn	1479	+3	–2	=1480	47%	5
5/5Friday, May 56:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1453	+27	+22	=1502	53%	4
5/3Wednesday, May 34:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1454	–19	+0	=1435	34%	1
5/3Wednesday, May 34:10 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Lugo	1540	–17	+24	=1547	66%	7
5/2Tuesday, May 29:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1453	+5	+0	=1458	36%	2
5/2Tuesday, May 29:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Wacha	1542	–5	+24	=1561	64%	1
5/1Monday, May 19:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1454	–7	–2	=1445	33%	3
5/1Monday, May 19:40 p.m. Eastern	SDPadres	Snell	1540	+6	+24	=1570	67%	8
4/30Sunday, April 304:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1455	+15	+0	=1470	55%	4
4/30Sunday, April 304:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Waldichuk	1410	+0	+24	=1434	45%	5
4/29Saturday, April 294:07 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1454	+27	+0	=1481	57%	3
4/29Saturday, April 294:07 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Muller	1411	–2	+24	=1433	43%	2
4/28Friday, April 289:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1452	–19	–2	=1431	48%	11
4/28Friday, April 289:40 p.m. Eastern	OAKAthletics	Rucinski	1413	+9	+22	=1444	52%	7
4/26Wednesday, April 2612:35 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Gray	1511	–9	+0	=1502	53%	3
4/26Wednesday, April 2612:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1451	+3	+24	=1478	47%	5
4/25Tuesday, April 256:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Perez	1512	–1	+0	=1511	56%	6
4/25Tuesday, April 256:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1450	–3	+24	=1471	44%	7
4/24Monday, April 246:40 p.m. Eastern	TEXRangers	Eovaldi	1513	–7	–3	=1503	52%	6
4/24Monday, April 246:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1448	+21	+22	=1491	48%	7
4/23Sunday, April 231:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1450	+23	+0	=1473	49%	0
4/23Sunday, April 231:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1475	–16	+24	=1483	51%	2
4/22Saturday, April 226:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1451	–22	+0	=1429	40%	1
4/22Saturday, April 226:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1474	+4	+24	=1502	60%	2
4/21Friday, April 216:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1452	+1	+0	=1453	42%	2
4/21Friday, April 216:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1473	+8	+24	=1505	58%	4
4/20Thursday, April 206:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Weaver	1453	–3	–2	=1448	43%	3
4/20Thursday, April 206:35 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Contreras	1472	+4	+21	=1497	57%	4
4/19Wednesday, April 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Rasmussen	1548	+10	+0	=1558	63%	8
4/19Wednesday, April 1912:35 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Stoudt	1455	–10	+24	=1469	37%	0
4/18Tuesday, April 186:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Bradley	1545	–34	+0	=1511	50%	10
4/18Tuesday, April 186:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1458	+29	+24	=1511	50%	0
4/17Monday, April 176:40 p.m. Eastern	TBRays	Beeks (open)	1548	+0	–2	=1546	57%	1
4/17Monday, April 176:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1455	+20	+24	=1499	43%	8
4/16Sunday, April 161:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Nola	1520	+13	+0	=1533	59%	14
4/16Sunday, April 161:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1458	–14	+24	=1468	41%	3
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Strahm	1524	–24	+0	=1500	54%	0
4/15Saturday, April 154:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1453	–7	+24	=1470	46%	13
4/14Friday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1522	–14	+0	=1508	55%	8
4/14Friday, April 146:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1455	–8	+24	=1471	45%	3
4/13Thursday, April 136:40 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1524	–21	–2	=1501	50%	2
4/13Thursday, April 136:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1453	+28	+22	=1503	50%	6
4/12Wednesday, April 127:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1454	+15	+0	=1469	31%	4
4/12Wednesday, April 127:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Strider	1557	+24	+24	=1605	69%	5
4/11Tuesday, April 117:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1454	–9	+0	=1445	32%	6
4/11Tuesday, April 117:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Wright	1556	+0	+24	=1580	68%	7
4/10Monday, April 107:20 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1455	–11	–3	=1441	31%	4
4/10Monday, April 107:20 p.m. Eastern	ATLBraves	Elder	1556	–1	+24	=1579	69%	5
4/9Sunday, April 91:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1453	–4	+0	=1449	38%	6
4/9Sunday, April 91:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Walker	1526	–14	+24	=1536	62%	4
4/8Saturday, April 84:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1454	+22	+0	=1476	43%	2
4/8Saturday, April 84:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Falter	1525	–22	+24	=1527	57%	3
4/7Friday, April 73:05 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1455	+15	+3	=1473	35%	2
4/7Friday, April 73:05 p.m. Eastern	PHIPhillies	Wheeler	1524	+30	+25	=1579	65%	5
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Wesneski	1483	–5	+0	=1478	51%	12
4/4Tuesday, April 46:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Cessa	1458	–9	+24	=1473	49%	5
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CHCCubs	Smyly	1484	–6	–2	=1476	49%	6
4/3Monday, April 36:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Overton	1457	+4	+24	=1485	51%	7
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Velasquez	1458	–15	+0	=1443	47%	1
4/2Sunday, April 21:40 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Ashcraft	1455	–15	+24	=1464	53%	3
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Hill	1460	+14	+2	=1476	46%	2
4/1Saturday, April 14:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Lodolo	1454	+23	+26	=1503	54%	6
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	PITPirates	Keller	1459	+9	–2	=1466	46%	5
3/30Thursday, March 304:10 p.m. Eastern	CINReds	Greene	1455	+19	+24	=1498	54%	4

How this works: Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. We’re using an Elo-based system that also accounts for starting pitchers, travel distance and rest, with an average team rating of about 1500. This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after each game. Read more »

Download data. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB.

Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver.