UPDATED Aug. 30, 2022, at 11:00 AM

2022-23 NBA Player Projections

Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.

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Keon Ellis

ADJUSTED COLLEGE STATISTICS
Bad
Avg.
Good
As compared with rookies
Percentile
Vitals50th
Height6'6"
Weight170
Draft position90
Scoring
True shooting %69%
Usage %17%
Tendencies
3 pt. frequency59%
FT frequency42%
Passing/ball handling
Assist %12%
Turnover %15%
Defense/rebounding
Rebound %11%
Block %2.5%
Steal %3.4%
Wins above replacement projection
Category: OK PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $28.5m

Confidence interval

Projection

'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'3005101520250.40.91.21.41.41.41.30.40.91.21.41.41.41.3
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
DaQuan Jeffries
Year: 2020
Similarity: 46
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
2
Nate Hinton
Year: 2021
Similarity: 43
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
3
Hollis Thompson
Year: 2014
Similarity: 43
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
4
Kyle Korver
Year: 2004
Similarity: 41
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
5
D.J. Kennedy
Year: 2012
Similarity: 41
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
6
Mason Jones
Year: 2021
Similarity: 41
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
7
Jabari Brown
Year: 2015
Similarity: 39
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
8
Sterling Brown
Year: 2018
Similarity: 37
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
9
T. Alexander
Year: 2021
Similarity: 35
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30
10
Troy Williams
Year: 2017
Similarity: 35
05101520'192020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29'30

Keon Ellis

  • Kings
  • Sacramento Kings
  • Shooting Guard
  • 23 years old
  • Rookie ✔
The fine print
RAPTOR Ratings2020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29
Offensive +/-Reg. season-1.1-0.50.0+0.2+0.4+0.4+1.1
Playoffs-1.1-0.50.0+0.2+0.4+0.3+1.0
Combined-1.1-0.50.0+0.2+0.4+0.3+1.1
Defensive +/-Reg. season+0.5+1.2+1.2+1.4+1.5+1.4+1.3
Playoffs+0.5+1.2+1.2+1.4+1.5+1.4+1.3
Combined+0.5+1.2+1.2+1.4+1.5+1.4+1.3
Total +/-Reg. season-0.7+0.7+1.2+1.7+1.9+1.8+2.4
Playoffs-0.7+0.7+1.2+1.6+1.9+1.7+2.3
Combined-0.7+0.7+1.2+1.6+1.9+1.7+2.4
Per 82 games2020'21'22'23'24'25'26'27'28'29
WARReg. season0.40.91.21.41.31.31.3
Playoffs0.40.91.31.51.41.51.4
Combined0.40.91.21.41.41.41.3
Market valueReg. season$3.1m$4.8m$6.2m$7.2m$7.2m$7.6m$7.7m
Playoffs$3.1m$4.7m$6.2m$7.3m$7.5m$8.0m$8.1m
Combined$3.1m$4.8m$6.2m$7.2m$7.3m$7.8m$7.9m
Minutes playedReg. season386513595607542572479
Playoffs355506613644586628531
Combined370509604625564600505
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
YearOff. +/-Def. +/-Total +/-Mkt. valueMin. played
20200
20210
20220
2023-1.1+0.5-0.7$3.1m370
2024-0.5+1.2+0.7$4.8m509
20250.0+1.2+1.2$6.2m604
2026+0.2+1.4+1.6$7.2m625
2027+0.4+1.5+1.9$7.3m564
2028+0.3+1.4+1.7$7.8m600
2029+1.1+1.3+2.4$7.9m505