2022-23 NBA Player Projections
Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
More NBA:Our RAPTOR player ratings
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Keon Ellis
- Kings
- Sacramento Kings
- Shooting Guard
- 23 years old
- Rookie ✔
ADJUSTED COLLEGE STATISTICS
Bad
Avg.
Good
As compared with rookies
Percentile | |||
---|---|---|---|
Vitals | 50th | ||
Height | 6'6" | ||
Weight | 170 | ||
Draft position | 90 |
Scoring | |||
---|---|---|---|
True shooting % | 69% | ||
Usage % | 17% |
Tendencies | |||
---|---|---|---|
3 pt. frequency | 59% | ||
FT frequency | 42% |
Passing/ball handling | |||
---|---|---|---|
Assist % | 12% | ||
Turnover % | 15% |
Defense/rebounding | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rebound % | 11% | ||
Block % | 2.5% | ||
Steal % | 3.4% |
Wins above replacement projection
Category: OK PROSPECT
5-yr market value: $28.5m
Confidence interval
Projection
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
DaQuan Jeffries
Year: 2020
Similarity: 46
2
Nate Hinton
Year: 2021
Similarity: 43
3
Hollis Thompson
Year: 2014
Similarity: 43
4
Kyle Korver
Year: 2004
Similarity: 41
5
D.J. Kennedy
Year: 2012
Similarity: 41
6
Mason Jones
Year: 2021
Similarity: 41
7
Jabari Brown
Year: 2015
Similarity: 39
8
Sterling Brown
Year: 2018
Similarity: 37
9
T. Alexander
Year: 2021
Similarity: 35
10
Troy Williams
Year: 2017
Similarity: 35
Keon Ellis
- Kings
- Sacramento Kings
- Shooting Guard
- 23 years old
- Rookie ✔
The fine print
RAPTOR Ratings | 2020 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive +/- | Reg. season | — | — | — | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.4 | +1.1 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +1.0 | |
Combined | — | — | — | -1.1 | -0.5 | 0.0 | +0.2 | +0.4 | +0.3 | +1.1 | |
Defensive +/- | Reg. season | — | — | — | +0.5 | +1.2 | +1.2 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +1.4 | +1.3 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | +0.5 | +1.2 | +1.2 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +1.4 | +1.3 | |
Combined | — | — | — | +0.5 | +1.2 | +1.2 | +1.4 | +1.5 | +1.4 | +1.3 | |
Total +/- | Reg. season | — | — | — | -0.7 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +1.7 | +1.9 | +1.8 | +2.4 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -0.7 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +1.6 | +1.9 | +1.7 | +2.3 | |
Combined | — | — | — | -0.7 | +0.7 | +1.2 | +1.6 | +1.9 | +1.7 | +2.4 |
Per 82 games | 2020 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WAR | Reg. season | — | — | — | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | |
Combined | — | — | — | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | |
Market value | Reg. season | — | — | — | $3.1m | $4.8m | $6.2m | $7.2m | $7.2m | $7.6m | $7.7m |
Playoffs | — | — | — | $3.1m | $4.7m | $6.2m | $7.3m | $7.5m | $8.0m | $8.1m | |
Combined | — | — | — | $3.1m | $4.8m | $6.2m | $7.2m | $7.3m | $7.8m | $7.9m | |
Minutes played | Reg. season | — | — | — | 386 | 513 | 595 | 607 | 542 | 572 | 479 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 355 | 506 | 613 | 644 | 586 | 628 | 531 | |
Combined | — | — | — | 370 | 509 | 604 | 625 | 564 | 600 | 505 |
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | Total +/- | Mkt. value | Min. played |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
2021 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
2022 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
2023 | -1.1 | +0.5 | -0.7 | $3.1m | 370 |
2024 | -0.5 | +1.2 | +0.7 | $4.8m | 509 |
2025 | 0.0 | +1.2 | +1.2 | $6.2m | 604 |
2026 | +0.2 | +1.4 | +1.6 | $7.2m | 625 |
2027 | +0.4 | +1.5 | +1.9 | $7.3m | 564 |
2028 | +0.3 | +1.4 | +1.7 | $7.8m | 600 |
2029 | +1.1 | +1.3 | +2.4 | $7.9m | 505 |
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