2022-23 NBA Player Projections
Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
More NBA:Our RAPTOR player ratings
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Trey Lyles
- Kings
- Sacramento Kings
- Power Forward
- 27 years old
![](/2023-nba-player-projections/images/missing2.png?v=08f640d6)
Weighted average of past three seasons
Bad
Avg.
Good
Percentile | |||
---|---|---|---|
Vitals | 50th | ||
Height | 6'9" | ||
Weight | 234 | ||
Draft position | 12 |
Scoring | |||
---|---|---|---|
True shooting % | 58% | ||
Free throw % | 77% | ||
Usage % | 19% |
Tendencies | |||
---|---|---|---|
3 pt. frequency | 40% | ||
FT frequency | 36% |
Passing/ball handling | |||
---|---|---|---|
Assist % | 8% | ||
Turnover % | 9% |
Defense/rebounding | |||
---|---|---|---|
Rebound % | 13% | ||
Block % | 1.6% | ||
Steal % | 0.9% | ||
Defensive +/- | -1.4 |
Wins above replacement projection
Category: SCRUB
5-yr market value: $10.6m
![](/2023-nba-player-projections/images/key2.png?v=cb2f09e6)
Confidence interval
Projection
Performance of the 10 most comparable players
1
Mitch Kupchak
Year: 1982
Similarity: 58
2
Danny Schayes
Year: 1987
Similarity: 57
3
Antoine Carr
Year: 1989
Similarity: 52
4
Jordan Hill
Year: 2015
Similarity: 52
5
Ben Coleman
Year: 1989
Similarity: 51
6
Bostjan Nachbar
Year: 2008
Similarity: 50
7
Dario Saric
Year: 2021
Similarity: 50
8
Brandon Bass
Year: 2012
Similarity: 50
9
James Bailey
Year: 1985
Similarity: 49
10
Joey Graham
Year: 2010
Similarity: 49
Trey Lyles
- Kings
- Sacramento Kings
- Power Forward
- 27 years old
![](/2023-nba-player-projections/images/missing2.png?v=08f640d6)
The fine print
RAPTOR Ratings | 2020 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Offensive +/- | Reg. season | -0.6 | -3.7 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.7 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.6 | |
Combined | -0.6 | -3.7 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | -1.7 | -1.6 | |
Defensive +/- | Reg. season | -1.6 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.2 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.2 | |
Combined | -1.6 | -0.8 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -1.2 | -1.0 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -1.2 | |
Total +/- | Reg. season | -2.2 | -4.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.4 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.7 | -2.8 | |
Combined | -2.2 | -4.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.4 | -2.7 | -2.8 | -2.8 |
Per 82 games | 2020 | '21 | '22 | '23 | '24 | '25 | '26 | '27 | '28 | '29 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WAR | Reg. season | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Combined | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Market value | Reg. season | $2.6m | $0.9m | $3.2m | $2.4m | $2.2m | $2.2m | $2.1m | $1.7m | $1.4m | $1.1m |
Playoffs | — | — | — | $2.3m | $2.2m | $2.2m | $2.1m | $1.7m | $1.4m | $1.1m | |
Combined | $2.6m | $0.9m | $3.2m | $2.4m | $2.2m | $2.2m | $2.1m | $1.7m | $1.4m | $1.1m | |
Minutes played | Reg. season | 1,468 | 402 | 1,537 | 1,219 | 976 | 826 | 690 | 514 | 386 | 266 |
Playoffs | — | — | — | 1,007 | 823 | 715 | 599 | 446 | 336 | 227 | |
Combined | 1,468 | 402 | 1,537 | 1,113 | 899 | 771 | 645 | 480 | 361 | 246 |
The fine print
Based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances
Year | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | Total +/- | Mkt. value | Min. played |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -2.2 | $2.6m | 1,468 |
2021 | -3.7 | -0.8 | -4.5 | $0.9m | 402 |
2022 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -2.0 | $3.2m | 1,537 |
2023 | -1.2 | -1.3 | -2.5 | $2.4m | 1,113 |
2024 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -2.5 | $2.2m | 899 |
2025 | -1.3 | -1.2 | -2.5 | $2.2m | 771 |
2026 | -1.4 | -1.0 | -2.4 | $2.1m | 645 |
2027 | -1.6 | -1.1 | -2.7 | $1.7m | 480 |
2028 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -2.8 | $1.4m | 361 |
2029 | -1.6 | -1.2 | -2.8 | $1.1m | 246 |
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