2022-23 NBA Predictions
Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.
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The Chicago Bulls have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Zach LaVine | Z. LaVine | 36 | SAME | +2.3 | -1.5 | ||||||||
| DeMar DeRozan | D. DeRozan | 36 | +4 | +1.6 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Lonzo Ball | L. Ball | 0 | -32 | +1.1 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Nikola Vucevic | N. Vucevic | 34 | SAME | -0.7 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Patrick Beverley | P. Beverley | 25 | SAME | -1.4 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Alex Caruso | A. Caruso | 22 | +5 | -0.3 | +4.7 | ||||||||
| Coby White | C. White | 22 | +5 | +0.9 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Patrick Williams | P. Williams | 20 | +6 | -2.3 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Javonte Green | J. Green | 14 | +1 | -0.5 | +2.1 | ||||||||
| Andre Drummond | A. Drummond | 9 | +2 | -1.5 | +2.6 | ||||||||
| Ayo Dosunmu | A. Dosunmu | 6 | +3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Terry Taylor | T. Taylor | 8 | +1 | -0.8 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Derrick Jones Jr. | D. Jones Jr. | 8 | +5 | -0.8 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Dalen Terry | D. Terry | 0 | SAME | -1.5 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Marko Simonovic | M. Simonovic | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Carlik Jones | C. Jones | 0 | SAME | -0.4 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Justin Lewis | J. Lewis | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +0.1 | +1.5 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 106-105 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 45 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1542 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1543). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1543). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1543 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1548 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
| Zach LaVine | Z. LaVine | 36 | +2.3 | -1.5 | |||||
| DeMar DeRozan | D. DeRozan | 32 | +1.6 | -0.8 | |||||
| Lonzo Ball | L. Ball | 32 | +1.1 | +1.5 | |||||
| Nikola Vucevic | N. Vucevic | 34 | -0.7 | +0.4 | |||||
| Patrick Beverley | P. Beverley | 25 | -1.4 | +0.9 | |||||
| Alex Caruso | A. Caruso | 17 | -0.3 | +4.7 | |||||
| Coby White | C. White | 17 | +0.9 | -0.4 | |||||
| Patrick Williams | P. Williams | 14 | -2.3 | -0.5 | |||||
| Javonte Green | J. Green | 13 | -0.5 | +2.1 | |||||
| Andre Drummond | A. Drummond | 7 | -1.5 | +2.6 | |||||
| Ayo Dosunmu | A. Dosunmu | 3 | -2.1 | 0.0 | |||||
| Terry Taylor | T. Taylor | 7 | -0.8 | -1.9 | |||||
| Derrick Jones Jr. | D. Jones Jr. | 3 | -0.8 | +0.7 | |||||
| Dalen Terry | D. Terry | 0 | -1.5 | +0.1 | |||||
| Marko Simonovic | M. Simonovic | 0 | -2.5 | +0.5 | |||||
| Carlik Jones | C. Jones | 0 | -0.4 | -0.7 | |||||
| Justin Lewis | J. Lewis | 0 | -2.1 | -0.9 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.1 | +2.0 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-105 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 49 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1577 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1543). The weight given to Elo — 20% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1543). The weight given to Elo — 20% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1570 | ||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1576 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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