The Boston Celtics have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Jayson Tatum	J. Tatum		40	SAME			+4.0	0.0
Jaylen Brown	J. Brown		37	SAME			+1.1	+0.5
Marcus Smart	M. Smart		33	SAME			+1.1	+0.9
Al Horford	A. Horford		30	SAME			0.0	+2.2
Derrick White	D. White		29	SAME			+1.3	+2.5
Robert Williams III	R. Williams III		16	SAME			-0.1	+1.8
Mike Muscala	M. Muscala		12	SAME			-0.2	0.0
Malcolm Brogdon	M. Brogdon		17	SAME			+1.8	-0.7
Grant Williams	G. Williams		14	SAME			-0.9	+0.1
Blake Griffin	B. Griffin		3	SAME			-0.9	+3.4
Danilo Gallinari	D. Gallinari		3	SAME			+0.3	-1.6
Sam Hauser	S. Hauser		3	SAME			+0.6	+0.5
Luke Kornet	L. Kornet		3	SAME			-1.4	+1.6
Payton Pritchard	P. Pritchard		0	SAME			+0.4	-0.5
Justin Champagnie	J. Champagnie		0	SAME			-0.7	-0.1
JD Davison	J. Davison		0	SAME			-2.3	-1.0
Mfiondu Kabengele	M. Kabengele		0	SAME			-2.4	+0.2
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+5.3	+4.1
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			112-103
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			62
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1727
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1664). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1664). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1697
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1714

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Jayson Tatum	J. Tatum		40		+4.0	0.0
Jaylen Brown	J. Brown		37		+1.1	+0.5
Marcus Smart	M. Smart		33		+1.1	+0.9
Al Horford	A. Horford		30		0.0	+2.2
Derrick White	D. White		29		+1.3	+2.5
Robert Williams III	R. Williams III		16		-0.1	+1.8
Mike Muscala	M. Muscala		12		-0.2	0.0
Malcolm Brogdon	M. Brogdon		17		+1.8	-0.7
Grant Williams	G. Williams		14		-0.9	+0.1
Blake Griffin	B. Griffin		3		-0.9	+3.4
Danilo Gallinari	D. Gallinari		3		+0.3	-1.6
Sam Hauser	S. Hauser		3		+0.6	+0.5
Luke Kornet	L. Kornet		3		-1.4	+1.6
Payton Pritchard	P. Pritchard		0		+0.4	-0.5
Justin Champagnie	J. Champagnie		0		-0.7	-0.1
JD Davison	J. Davison		0		-2.3	-1.0
Mfiondu Kabengele	M. Kabengele		0		-2.4	+0.2
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+5.3	+4.1
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.9 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			112-103
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			62
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1727
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1664). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1664). The weight given to Elo — 48% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1697
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1714

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.

The Boston Celtics have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

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