2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Boston Celtics have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and a 17% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 34 | -1 | +4.3 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 33 | -3 | +1.3 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 28 | SAME | +0.8 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 10 | -14 | -0.4 | +1.5 | ||||||||
| Al Horford | A. Horford | 26 | +2 | -0.4 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Derrick White | D. White | 25 | +8 | +1.6 | +2.6 | ||||||||
| Mike Muscala | M. Muscala | 13 | -1 | -0.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Malcolm Brogdon | M. Brogdon | 22 | +5 | +1.7 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 12 | -1 | -1.2 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Blake Griffin | B. Griffin | 11 | +3 | -1.2 | +3.2 | ||||||||
| Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 0 | -8 | +0.6 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 13 | +5 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Luke Kornet | L. Kornet | 10 | +2 | -1.3 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 3 | +3 | -0.1 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| JD Davison | J. Davison | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Mfiondu Kabengele | M. Kabengele | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.9 | +3.5 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 115-107 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 59 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1695 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1632). The weight given to Elo — 44% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1632). The weight given to Elo — 44% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1667 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 35 | +4.3 | -0.2 | |||||
| Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 36 | +1.3 | +0.4 | |||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 28 | +0.8 | +0.9 | |||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 24 | -0.4 | +1.5 | |||||
| Al Horford | A. Horford | 24 | -0.4 | +1.9 | |||||
| Derrick White | D. White | 17 | +1.6 | +2.6 | |||||
| Mike Muscala | M. Muscala | 14 | -0.3 | +0.3 | |||||
| Malcolm Brogdon | M. Brogdon | 17 | +1.7 | -0.9 | |||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 13 | -1.2 | +0.3 | |||||
| Blake Griffin | B. Griffin | 8 | -1.2 | +3.2 | |||||
| Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 8 | +0.6 | -1.6 | |||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 8 | +0.4 | +0.5 | |||||
| Luke Kornet | L. Kornet | 8 | -1.3 | +1.9 | |||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 0 | -0.1 | -0.4 | |||||
| JD Davison | J. Davison | 0 | -2.3 | -1.0 | |||||
| Mfiondu Kabengele | M. Kabengele | 0 | -2.4 | +0.2 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.7 | +3.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 115-108 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 58 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1679 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1632). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1632). The weight given to Elo — 33% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1663 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jayson Tatum | J. Tatum | 41 | +6 | +3.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Jaylen Brown | J. Brown | 37 | +1 | +1.4 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Marcus Smart | M. Smart | 33 | +5 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Robert Williams III | R. Williams III | 25 | +1 | -0.2 | +1.6 | ||||||||
| Al Horford | A. Horford | 30 | +6 | -0.1 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Derrick White | D. White | 17 | SAME | +1.4 | +2.6 | ||||||||
| Mike Muscala | M. Muscala | 11 | -3 | -0.3 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Malcolm Brogdon | M. Brogdon | 18 | +1 | +1.7 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Grant Williams | G. Williams | 14 | +1 | -1.0 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Blake Griffin | B. Griffin | 4 | -4 | -1.1 | +3.3 | ||||||||
| Danilo Gallinari | D. Gallinari | 4 | -4 | +0.3 | -1.6 | ||||||||
| Sam Hauser | S. Hauser | 3 | -5 | +0.4 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Luke Kornet | L. Kornet | 3 | -5 | -1.3 | +1.9 | ||||||||
| Payton Pritchard | P. Pritchard | 0 | SAME | 0.0 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| JD Davison | J. Davison | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -1.0 | ||||||||
| Mfiondu Kabengele | M. Kabengele | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +4.8 | +3.3 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-104 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 60 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1697 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1632). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1632). The weight given to Elo — 26% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1680 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1698 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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