The Atlanta Hawks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Trae Young	T. Young		37	SAME			+5.3	-2.0
Dejounte Murray	D. Murray		37	SAME			+1.5	-0.2
John Collins	J. Collins		30	SAME			-0.9	-0.2
De'Andre Hunter	D. Hunter		32	SAME			-1.1	-0.3
Saddiq Bey	S. Bey		27	SAME			+0.8	-2.1
Clint Capela	C. Capela		23	SAME			+0.2	+2.6
Trent Forrest	T. Forrest		10	SAME			-1.2	-1.0
Bogdan Bogdanovic	B. Bogdanovic		20	SAME			+2.6	-0.2
Onyeka Okongwu	O. Okongwu		17	SAME			-0.3	+1.3
Aaron Holiday	A. Holiday		4	SAME			-0.5	+0.7
Jalen Johnson	J. Johnson		1	SAME			-1.3	+0.4
AJ Griffin	A. Griffin		2	SAME			-0.1	-0.9
Garrison Mathews	G. Mathews		0	SAME			-0.1	+2.3
Vit Krejci	V. Krejci		0	SAME			-1.9	-0.9
Bruno Fernando	B. Fernando		0	SAME			-2.6	+0.4
Tyrese Martin	T. Martin		0	SAME			-2.1	-0.8
Donovan Williams	D. Williams		0	SAME			-3.3	-1.4
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+4.6	-1.6
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			112-109
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			48
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1575
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1531). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1531). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1559
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1563

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Trae Young	T. Young		37		+5.3	-2.0
Dejounte Murray	D. Murray		37		+1.5	-0.2
John Collins	J. Collins		30		-0.9	-0.2
De'Andre Hunter	D. Hunter		32		-1.1	-0.3
Saddiq Bey	S. Bey		27		+0.8	-2.1
Clint Capela	C. Capela		23		+0.2	+2.6
Trent Forrest	T. Forrest		10		-1.2	-1.0
Bogdan Bogdanovic	B. Bogdanovic		20		+2.6	-0.2
Onyeka Okongwu	O. Okongwu		17		-0.3	+1.3
Aaron Holiday	A. Holiday		4		-0.5	+0.7
Jalen Johnson	J. Johnson		1		-1.3	+0.4
AJ Griffin	A. Griffin		2		-0.1	-0.9
Garrison Mathews	G. Mathews		0		-0.1	+2.3
Vit Krejci	V. Krejci		0		-1.9	-0.9
Bruno Fernando	B. Fernando		0		-2.6	+0.4
Tyrese Martin	T. Martin		0		-2.1	-0.8
Donovan Williams	D. Williams		0		-3.3	-1.4
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+4.6	-1.6
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 99.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			112-109
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			48
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1575
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1531). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1531). The weight given to Elo — 38% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1559
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1563

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.

The Atlanta Hawks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

Comments