2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The Miami Heat have an 83% chance of making the playoffs and a 0.5% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jimmy Butler | J. Butler | 31 | -2 | +4.5 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Bam Adebayo | B. Adebayo | 33 | -2 | -0.5 | +2.7 | ||||||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 24 | -5 | +0.8 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 29 | -1 | +1.5 | -1.3 | ||||||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 18 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 22 | +2 | -1.4 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 18 | +3 | -0.9 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Max Strus | M. Strus | 20 | SAME | +0.5 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Kevin Love | K. Love | 17 | +1 | -0.2 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Haywood Highsmith | H. Highsmith | 4 | -1 | -2.9 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 10 | +4 | +0.2 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Orlando Robinson | O. Robinson | 5 | -1 | -2.0 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Cody Zeller | C. Zeller | 8 | +2 | -1.1 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Jamal Cain | J. Cain | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 1 | +1 | -2.2 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Nikola Jovic | N. Jovic | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | SAME | -5.5 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.5 | +1.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-108 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 50 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1590 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1495). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1495). The weight given to Elo — 42% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1550 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Jimmy Butler | J. Butler | 33 | +4.5 | +0.9 | |||||
| Bam Adebayo | B. Adebayo | 35 | -0.5 | +2.7 | |||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 29 | +0.8 | +0.8 | |||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 30 | +1.5 | -1.3 | |||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 19 | -1.5 | +0.7 | |||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 20 | -1.4 | +1.4 | |||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 15 | -0.9 | +0.2 | |||||
| Max Strus | M. Strus | 20 | +0.5 | -0.9 | |||||
| Kevin Love | K. Love | 16 | -0.2 | +0.1 | |||||
| Haywood Highsmith | H. Highsmith | 5 | -2.9 | +0.5 | |||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 6 | +0.2 | -1.7 | |||||
| Orlando Robinson | O. Robinson | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |||||
| Cody Zeller | C. Zeller | 6 | -1.1 | -0.4 | |||||
| Jamal Cain | J. Cain | 0 | -2.1 | -0.3 | |||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 0 | -2.2 | +0.3 | |||||
| Nikola Jovic | N. Jovic | 0 | -2.6 | -0.9 | |||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | -5.5 | -1.9 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +1.7 | +2.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 112-108 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 51 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1603 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1495). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1495). The weight given to Elo — 40% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1560 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Jimmy Butler | J. Butler | 36 | +3 | +5.0 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Bam Adebayo | B. Adebayo | 36 | +1 | -0.4 | +2.7 | ||||||||
| Kyle Lowry | K. Lowry | 29 | SAME | +0.7 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Tyler Herro | T. Herro | 30 | SAME | +1.2 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Victor Oladipo | V. Oladipo | 18 | -1 | -1.5 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Caleb Martin | C. Martin | 26 | +6 | -1.5 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Gabe Vincent | G. Vincent | 12 | -3 | -0.7 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Max Strus | M. Strus | 19 | -1 | +0.6 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Kevin Love | K. Love | 18 | +2 | -0.2 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Haywood Highsmith | H. Highsmith | 2 | -3 | -2.6 | +0.5 | ||||||||
| Duncan Robinson | D. Robinson | 3 | -3 | +0.2 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Orlando Robinson | O. Robinson | 5 | -1 | -1.9 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Cody Zeller | C. Zeller | 6 | SAME | -1.1 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Jamal Cain | J. Cain | 0 | SAME | -2.0 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Omer Yurtseven | O. Yurtseven | 0 | SAME | -2.1 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Nikola Jovic | N. Jovic | 0 | SAME | -2.6 | -0.9 | ||||||||
| Udonis Haslem | U. Haslem | 0 | SAME | -5.5 | -1.9 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.5 | +2.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-104 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1632 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1495). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1495). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1581 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1594 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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