The Miami Heat have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Jimmy Butler	J. Butler		36	-2			+5.0	+1.0
Bam Adebayo	B. Adebayo		36	SAME			-0.6	+2.5
Kyle Lowry	K. Lowry		26	-2			+1.1	+0.7
Tyler Herro	T. Herro		31	SAME			+1.2	-1.4
Max Strus	M. Strus		23	+4			+0.6	-0.6
Gabe Vincent	G. Vincent		20	+7			-0.4	+0.4
Victor Oladipo	V. Oladipo		0	-15			-1.3	+1.0
Caleb Martin	C. Martin		22	+5			-1.0	+1.5
Kevin Love	K. Love		16	-2			-0.1	+0.6
Haywood Highsmith	H. Highsmith		4	+4			-2.5	+0.3
Duncan Robinson	D. Robinson		17	+1			+0.6	-1.6
Orlando Robinson	O. Robinson		4	SAME			-1.8	-0.2
Cody Zeller	C. Zeller		5	SAME			-1.1	-0.7
Jamal Cain	J. Cain		0	SAME			-1.4	-0.2
Omer Yurtseven	O. Yurtseven		0	SAME			-2.1	+0.3
Nikola Jovic	N. Jovic		0	SAME			-2.6	-0.8
Udonis Haslem	U. Haslem		0	SAME			-5.5	-1.9
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+3.6	+2.0
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.7 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			110-104
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			54
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1638
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1605). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1605). The weight given to Elo — 35% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1627
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1639

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Jimmy Butler	J. Butler		38		+5.0	+1.0
Bam Adebayo	B. Adebayo		36		-0.6	+2.5
Kyle Lowry	K. Lowry		28		+1.1	+0.7
Tyler Herro	T. Herro		31		+1.2	-1.4
Max Strus	M. Strus		19		+0.6	-0.6
Gabe Vincent	G. Vincent		13		-0.4	+0.4
Victor Oladipo	V. Oladipo		15		-1.3	+1.0
Caleb Martin	C. Martin		17		-1.0	+1.5
Kevin Love	K. Love		18		-0.1	+0.6
Haywood Highsmith	H. Highsmith		0		-2.5	+0.3
Duncan Robinson	D. Robinson		16		+0.6	-1.6
Orlando Robinson	O. Robinson		4		-1.8	-0.2
Cody Zeller	C. Zeller		5		-1.1	-0.7
Jamal Cain	J. Cain		0		-1.4	-0.2
Omer Yurtseven	O. Yurtseven		0		-2.1	+0.3
Nikola Jovic	N. Jovic		0		-2.6	-0.8
Udonis Haslem	U. Haslem		0		-5.5	-1.9
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+3.8	+2.2
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			110-104
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			55
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1647
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1605). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1605). The weight given to Elo — 24% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1637
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1650

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.

The Miami Heat have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

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