2022-23 NBA Predictions
Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.
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The New York Knicks have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength | vs. full strength | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
Julius Randle | J. Randle | 35 | SAME | +0.5 | -0.8 | ||||||||
Jalen Brunson | J. Brunson | 38 | SAME | +4.1 | -0.7 | ||||||||
Quentin Grimes | Q. Grimes | 24 | SAME | +0.5 | -0.2 | ||||||||
Josh Hart | J. Hart | 24 | SAME | +0.9 | +1.1 | ||||||||
RJ Barrett | R. Barrett | 24 | SAME | -0.2 | -1.8 | ||||||||
Immanuel Quickley | I. Quickley | 26 | SAME | +1.4 | +1.7 | ||||||||
Obi Toppin | O. Toppin | 14 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.6 | ||||||||
Mitchell Robinson | M. Robinson | 25 | SAME | +0.1 | +2.2 | ||||||||
Isaiah Hartenstein | I. Hartenstein | 19 | SAME | -0.9 | +2.6 | ||||||||
Evan Fournier | E. Fournier | 8 | SAME | -0.4 | -1.3 | ||||||||
Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 0 | SAME | -0.3 | -0.1 | ||||||||
Jericho Sims | J. Sims | 2 | SAME | -2.4 | +0.5 | ||||||||
Miles McBride | M. McBride | 0 | SAME | -1.2 | +1.2 | ||||||||
Isaiah Roby | I. Roby | 1 | SAME | -3.3 | -0.8 | ||||||||
Duane Washington Jr. | D. Washington Jr. | 0 | SAME | -0.2 | -1.5 | ||||||||
Trevor Keels | T. Keels | 0 | SAME | -2.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
DaQuan Jeffries | D. Jeffries | 0 | SAME | -0.7 | -0.4 | ||||||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.8 | +1.0 | |||||||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-104 | ||||||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1618 | ||||||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1595). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1595). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1609 | ||||||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1610 |
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Expected minutes per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||
Julius Randle | J. Randle | 35 | +0.5 | -0.8 | |||||
Jalen Brunson | J. Brunson | 38 | +4.1 | -0.7 | |||||
Quentin Grimes | Q. Grimes | 24 | +0.5 | -0.2 | |||||
Josh Hart | J. Hart | 24 | +0.9 | +1.1 | |||||
RJ Barrett | R. Barrett | 24 | -0.2 | -1.8 | |||||
Immanuel Quickley | I. Quickley | 26 | +1.4 | +1.7 | |||||
Obi Toppin | O. Toppin | 14 | -0.7 | -0.6 | |||||
Mitchell Robinson | M. Robinson | 25 | +0.1 | +2.2 | |||||
Isaiah Hartenstein | I. Hartenstein | 19 | -0.9 | +2.6 | |||||
Evan Fournier | E. Fournier | 8 | -0.4 | -1.3 | |||||
Derrick Rose | D. Rose | 0 | -0.3 | -0.1 | |||||
Jericho Sims | J. Sims | 2 | -2.4 | +0.5 | |||||
Miles McBride | M. McBride | 0 | -1.2 | +1.2 | |||||
Isaiah Roby | I. Roby | 1 | -3.3 | -0.8 | |||||
Duane Washington Jr. | D. Washington Jr. | 0 | -0.2 | -1.5 | |||||
Trevor Keels | T. Keels | 0 | -2.5 | -1.1 | |||||
DaQuan Jeffries | D. Jeffries | 0 | -0.7 | -0.4 | |||||
Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.8 | +1.0 | |||||
Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 96.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 109-104 | ||||||
Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 53 | ||||||
Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1618 | ||||||
Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1595). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1595). The weight given to Elo — 41% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1609 | ||||||
Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1610 |
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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