2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
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The Los Angeles Lakers have a 63% chance of making the playoffs and a 2% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| LeBron James | L. James | 29 | -6 | +4.0 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Anthony Davis | A. Davis | 32 | -2 | +1.4 | +3.7 | ||||||||
| Malik Beasley | M. Beasley | 21 | -5 | +0.4 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 26 | -4 | -0.7 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| D'Angelo Russell | D. Russell | 26 | +5 | +2.4 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Austin Reaves | A. Reaves | 25 | +5 | +1.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Troy Brown Jr. | T. Brown Jr. | 20 | +3 | -1.4 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Jarred Vanderbilt | J. Vanderbilt | 19 | +2 | -1.0 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Rui Hachimura | R. Hachimura | 15 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Lonnie Walker IV | L. Walker IV | 8 | +3 | -1.6 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Mo Bamba | M. Bamba | 6 | -1 | -1.4 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Wenyen Gabriel | W. Gabriel | 10 | +4 | -1.2 | +0.2 | ||||||||
| Max Christie | M. Christie | 0 | SAME | -3.3 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Davon Reed | D. Reed | 3 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Cole Swider | C. Swider | 0 | SAME | -2.4 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | S. Pippen Jr. | 0 | SAME | -0.6 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.1 | +1.0 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 49 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1586 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1534). The weight given to Elo — 39% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1534). The weight given to Elo — 39% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1566 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| LeBron James | L. James | 35 | +4.0 | +0.1 | |||||
| Anthony Davis | A. Davis | 34 | +1.4 | +3.7 | |||||
| Malik Beasley | M. Beasley | 26 | +0.4 | -1.7 | |||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 30 | -0.7 | -0.3 | |||||
| D'Angelo Russell | D. Russell | 21 | +2.4 | -1.4 | |||||
| Austin Reaves | A. Reaves | 20 | +1.1 | +1.4 | |||||
| Troy Brown Jr. | T. Brown Jr. | 17 | -1.4 | +0.1 | |||||
| Jarred Vanderbilt | J. Vanderbilt | 17 | -1.0 | +0.7 | |||||
| Rui Hachimura | R. Hachimura | 17 | -1.8 | -0.8 | |||||
| Lonnie Walker IV | L. Walker IV | 5 | -1.6 | -2.4 | |||||
| Mo Bamba | M. Bamba | 7 | -1.4 | +0.1 | |||||
| Wenyen Gabriel | W. Gabriel | 6 | -1.2 | +0.2 | |||||
| Max Christie | M. Christie | 0 | -3.3 | -0.4 | |||||
| Davon Reed | D. Reed | 5 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |||||
| Cole Swider | C. Swider | 0 | -2.4 | -0.3 | |||||
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | S. Pippen Jr. | 0 | -0.6 | -1.1 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +2.4 | +1.1 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 113-110 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 50 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1593 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1534). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1534). The weight given to Elo — 31% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1575 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| LeBron James | L. James | 38 | +3 | +4.5 | +0.4 | ||||||||
| Anthony Davis | A. Davis | 34 | SAME | +1.6 | +3.8 | ||||||||
| Malik Beasley | M. Beasley | 24 | -2 | +0.3 | -1.7 | ||||||||
| Dennis Schroder | D. Schroder | 29 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| D'Angelo Russell | D. Russell | 24 | +3 | +2.2 | -1.4 | ||||||||
| Austin Reaves | A. Reaves | 24 | +4 | +1.1 | +1.4 | ||||||||
| Troy Brown Jr. | T. Brown Jr. | 20 | +3 | -1.4 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Jarred Vanderbilt | J. Vanderbilt | 20 | +3 | -1.1 | +0.7 | ||||||||
| Rui Hachimura | R. Hachimura | 20 | +3 | -1.7 | -0.8 | ||||||||
| Lonnie Walker IV | L. Walker IV | 1 | -4 | -1.5 | -2.4 | ||||||||
| Mo Bamba | M. Bamba | 3 | -4 | -1.4 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Wenyen Gabriel | W. Gabriel | 3 | -3 | -1.2 | +0.3 | ||||||||
| Max Christie | M. Christie | 0 | SAME | -3.2 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Davon Reed | D. Reed | 0 | -5 | -1.7 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Cole Swider | C. Swider | 0 | SAME | -2.3 | -0.3 | ||||||||
| Scotty Pippen Jr. | S. Pippen Jr. | 0 | SAME | -0.5 | -1.1 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | +3.8 | +1.8 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.8 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 111-105 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 54 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1635 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1534). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1534). The weight given to Elo — 30% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1604 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1622 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
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