2022-23 NBA Predictions
Updated after every game and depth chart revision.
More NBA:Our preseason player projectionsRAPTOR player ratingsBuild your own team
The San Antonio Spurs have a 0% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals
Roster depth chart
A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Keldon Johnson | K. Johnson | 26 | -7 | +0.9 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Devin Vassell | D. Vassell | 24 | -6 | +0.4 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Tre Jones | T. Jones | 23 | -5 | +0.3 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Zach Collins | Z. Collins | 20 | -2 | -2.0 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Doug McDermott | D. McDermott | 16 | -4 | -0.8 | -3.7 | ||||||||
| Jeremy Sochan | J. Sochan | 19 | -5 | -1.9 | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Keita Bates-Diop | K. Bates-Diop | 18 | -2 | -1.9 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Devonte' Graham | D. Graham | 17 | -3 | +1.4 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | S. Mamukelashvili | 14 | +5 | -2.4 | -3.0 | ||||||||
| Khem Birch | K. Birch | 6 | -2 | -2.8 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Malaki Branham | M. Branham | 14 | +5 | -2.5 | -3.4 | ||||||||
| Julian Champagnie | J. Champagnie | 11 | +3 | -1.9 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 12 | +3 | -1.3 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Blake Wesley | B. Wesley | 7 | +7 | -4.8 | -2.7 | ||||||||
| Gorgui Dieng | G. Dieng | 6 | +6 | -2.7 | -0.5 | ||||||||
| Charles Bassey | C. Bassey | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Dominick Barlow | D. Barlow | 7 | +7 | -3.8 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -4.3 | -3.4 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102.1 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 106-114 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 22 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1305 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1279). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1279). The weight given to Elo — 37% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1295 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Expected minutes per game | Exp. min. per game | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | |||||
| Keldon Johnson | K. Johnson | 33 | +0.9 | -1.8 | |||||
| Devin Vassell | D. Vassell | 30 | +0.4 | -0.4 | |||||
| Tre Jones | T. Jones | 28 | +0.3 | +0.9 | |||||
| Zach Collins | Z. Collins | 22 | -2.0 | +1.2 | |||||
| Doug McDermott | D. McDermott | 20 | -0.8 | -3.7 | |||||
| Jeremy Sochan | J. Sochan | 24 | -1.9 | 0.0 | |||||
| Keita Bates-Diop | K. Bates-Diop | 20 | -1.9 | -0.2 | |||||
| Devonte' Graham | D. Graham | 20 | +1.4 | -1.2 | |||||
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | S. Mamukelashvili | 9 | -2.4 | -3.0 | |||||
| Khem Birch | K. Birch | 8 | -2.8 | +0.8 | |||||
| Malaki Branham | M. Branham | 9 | -2.5 | -3.4 | |||||
| Julian Champagnie | J. Champagnie | 8 | -1.9 | -0.6 | |||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 9 | -1.3 | +0.6 | |||||
| Blake Wesley | B. Wesley | 0 | -4.8 | -2.7 | |||||
| Gorgui Dieng | G. Dieng | 0 | -2.7 | -0.5 | |||||
| Charles Bassey | C. Bassey | 0 | -1.9 | +1.0 | |||||
| Dominick Barlow | D. Barlow | 0 | -3.8 | -0.7 | |||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -2.6 | -2.9 | |||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 102 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 108-114 | ||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 27 | ||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1362 | ||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1279). The weight given to Elo — 21% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1279). The weight given to Elo — 21% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1345 | ||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
| Expected minutes per game | PROJECTED PLAYER RATING | Exp. min. per game | PROJ. PLAYER RATING | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | TOTAL | vs. full strength (today) | vs. full strength (today) | Off. +/- | Def. +/- | ||||||||
| Keldon Johnson | K. Johnson | 35 | +2 | +0.8 | -1.8 | ||||||||
| Devin Vassell | D. Vassell | 30 | SAME | +0.4 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Tre Jones | T. Jones | 25 | -3 | +0.3 | +0.9 | ||||||||
| Zach Collins | Z. Collins | 21 | -1 | -1.9 | +1.2 | ||||||||
| Doug McDermott | D. McDermott | 18 | -2 | -0.8 | -3.7 | ||||||||
| Jeremy Sochan | J. Sochan | 25 | +1 | -1.9 | +0.1 | ||||||||
| Keita Bates-Diop | K. Bates-Diop | 18 | -2 | -1.8 | -0.2 | ||||||||
| Devonte' Graham | D. Graham | 19 | -1 | +1.4 | -1.2 | ||||||||
| Sandro Mamukelashvili | S. Mamukelashvili | 10 | +1 | -2.4 | -3.0 | ||||||||
| Khem Birch | K. Birch | 10 | +2 | -2.7 | +0.8 | ||||||||
| Malaki Branham | M. Branham | 10 | +1 | -2.5 | -3.4 | ||||||||
| Julian Champagnie | J. Champagnie | 9 | +1 | -1.8 | -0.6 | ||||||||
| Romeo Langford | R. Langford | 10 | +1 | -1.1 | +0.6 | ||||||||
| Blake Wesley | B. Wesley | 0 | SAME | -4.8 | -2.7 | ||||||||
| Gorgui Dieng | G. Dieng | 0 | SAME | -2.7 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| Charles Bassey | C. Bassey | 0 | SAME | -1.9 | +1.0 | ||||||||
| Dominick Barlow | D. Barlow | 0 | SAME | -3.7 | -0.7 | ||||||||
| Rotation ratings | First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league. | -3.1 | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Points per game | We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 98.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team. | 104-110 | ||||||||||
| Rotation wins | We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength. | 26 | ||||||||||
| Rotation rating | Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average. | 1355 | ||||||||||
| Team rating | We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1279). The weight given to Elo — 22% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1279). The weight given to Elo — 22% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games. | 1338 | ||||||||||
| Playoff rating | Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster. | 1339 | ||||||||||
Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.
Comments