The Golden State Warriors have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Stephen Curry	S. Curry		37	SAME			+6.9	-0.8
Andrew Wiggins	A. Wiggins		35	SAME			+0.1	+1.4
Draymond Green	D. Green		33	SAME			-0.3	+3.5
Klay Thompson	K. Thompson		32	SAME			+0.7	-1.2
Kevon Looney	K. Looney		25	SAME			+0.3	+2.4
Jordan Poole	J. Poole		22	SAME			+0.1	-1.5
Donte DiVincenzo	D. DiVincenzo		16	SAME			-0.1	+1.7
Jonathan Kuminga	J. Kuminga		19	SAME			-2.2	-0.3
Gary Payton II	G. Payton II		16	SAME			+1.0	+1.9
Ty Jerome	T. Jerome		0	SAME			-0.2	-1.8
Andre Iguodala	A. Iguodala		5	SAME			-0.7	+1.8
Moses Moody	M. Moody		0	SAME			-1.5	-1.5
JaMychal Green	J. Green		0	SAME			-1.5	-1.2
Anthony Lamb	A. Lamb		0	SAME			-1.1	+0.8
Ryan Rollins	R. Rollins		0	SAME			-2.0	-1.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr.	P. Baldwin Jr.		0	SAME			-3.4	-1.8
Lester Quinones	L. Quinones		0	SAME			-1.6	-0.6
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+4.7	+3.5
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			115-106
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			60
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1697
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1591). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1591). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1658
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1679

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Stephen Curry	S. Curry		37		+6.9	-0.8
Andrew Wiggins	A. Wiggins		35		+0.1	+1.4
Draymond Green	D. Green		33		-0.3	+3.5
Klay Thompson	K. Thompson		32		+0.7	-1.2
Kevon Looney	K. Looney		25		+0.3	+2.4
Jordan Poole	J. Poole		22		+0.1	-1.5
Donte DiVincenzo	D. DiVincenzo		16		-0.1	+1.7
Jonathan Kuminga	J. Kuminga		19		-2.2	-0.3
Gary Payton II	G. Payton II		16		+1.0	+1.9
Ty Jerome	T. Jerome		0		-0.2	-1.8
Andre Iguodala	A. Iguodala		5		-0.7	+1.8
Moses Moody	M. Moody		0		-1.5	-1.5
JaMychal Green	J. Green		0		-1.5	-1.2
Anthony Lamb	A. Lamb		0		-1.1	+0.8
Ryan Rollins	R. Rollins		0		-2.0	-1.0
Patrick Baldwin Jr.	P. Baldwin Jr.		0		-3.4	-1.8
Lester Quinones	L. Quinones		0		-1.6	-0.6
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+4.7	+3.5
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 101.3 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			115-106
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			60
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1697
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1591). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1591). The weight given to Elo — 36% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1658
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1679

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.

The Golden State Warriors have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

Comments