The Washington Wizards have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

A team’s current rotation accounts for recent injuries and other player activity; the full-strength rotation does not.

		Expected minutes per game				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING		Exp. min. per game	PROJ. PLAYER RATING
Player		TOTAL	vs. full strength		vs. full strength		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Bradley Beal	B. Beal		34	SAME			+2.6	-1.2
Kristaps Porzingis	K. Porzingis		32	SAME			+2.2	+1.4
Kyle Kuzma	K. Kuzma		33	SAME			-1.4	0.0
Monte Morris	M. Morris		26	SAME			+1.2	-1.8
Delon Wright	D. Wright		22	SAME			+0.7	+2.4
Deni Avdija	D. Avdija		27	SAME			-1.3	+1.0
Corey Kispert	C. Kispert		21	SAME			-0.3	-1.7
Johnny Davis	J. Davis		16	SAME			-2.7	-1.1
Daniel Gafford	D. Gafford		12	SAME			+0.2	0.0
Kendrick Nunn	K. Nunn		10	SAME			-1.0	-1.8
Taj Gibson	T. Gibson		7	SAME			-3.1	+0.3
Jordan Goodwin	J. Goodwin		0	SAME			-1.0	+0.8
Anthony Gill	A. Gill		0	SAME			-1.3	-1.8
Isaiah Todd	I. Todd		0	SAME			-2.9	-0.6
Quenton Jackson	Q. Jackson		0	SAME			-1.1	-0.5
Jay Huff	J. Huff		0	SAME			-3.0	-0.3
Xavier Cooks	X. Cooks		0	SAME			-1.5	-1.3
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.					Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+0.8	-0.6
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.					Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			106-106
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.					Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			42
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.					Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1510
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1436). The weight given to Elo — 9% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.					Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1436). The weight given to Elo — 9% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1504
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.					Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1509

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

				PROJECTED PLAYER RATING
Player		Expected minutes per game		Off. +/-	Def. +/-
Bradley Beal	B. Beal		34		+2.6	-1.2
Kristaps Porzingis	K. Porzingis		32		+2.2	+1.4
Kyle Kuzma	K. Kuzma		33		-1.4	0.0
Monte Morris	M. Morris		26		+1.2	-1.8
Delon Wright	D. Wright		22		+0.7	+2.4
Deni Avdija	D. Avdija		27		-1.3	+1.0
Corey Kispert	C. Kispert		21		-0.3	-1.7
Johnny Davis	J. Davis		16		-2.7	-1.1
Daniel Gafford	D. Gafford		12		+0.2	0.0
Kendrick Nunn	K. Nunn		10		-1.0	-1.8
Taj Gibson	T. Gibson		7		-3.1	+0.3
Jordan Goodwin	J. Goodwin		0		-1.0	+0.8
Anthony Gill	A. Gill		0		-1.3	-1.8
Isaiah Todd	I. Todd		0		-2.9	-0.6
Quenton Jackson	Q. Jackson		0		-1.1	-0.5
Jay Huff	J. Huff		0		-3.0	-0.3
Xavier Cooks	X. Cooks		0		-1.5	-1.3
Rotation ratings	First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			Rotation ratings First, we take a minute-weighted average of the player ratings to get a measure of team efficiency per 100 possessions, relative to the league.			+0.8	-0.6
Points per game	We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			Points per game We combine the team’s efficiency with its pace — 97.4 possessions per game — to project the score of a game against an average NBA team.			106-106
Rotation wins	We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			Rotation wins We use these projected scores to estimate this rotation’s expected wins in an 82-game season, assuming an average schedule strength.			42
Rotation rating	Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			Rotation rating Then we convert the rotation’s expected wins into a score for team strength — 1500 is about average.			1510
Team rating	We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1436). The weight given to Elo — 9% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			Team rating We blend the rotation rating with the team’s current Elo rating (1436). The weight given to Elo — 9% — is based on this lineup's similarity to the team's lineups in recent games.			1504
Playoff rating	Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			Playoff rating Finally, we adjust the team’s rating based on the amount of playoff experience on the roster.			1509

Rosters may include players currently assigned to G League teams.

Team rating

At full strength vs. with its current rotation

Full-strength rotation

Current rotation

Current

2022-23 NBA Predictions

Team ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities, updating live.

The Washington Wizards have a 0% chance of winning the NBA Finals

Roster depth chart

Team rating

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