UPDATED Dec. 8, 2022, at 1:13 AM

2022-23 NHL Predictions

Updated after every game.

Highest quality

By the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings


Sunday, Dec. 11 8 p.m. Eastern

8 p.m.win prob.score
Bruins51%
Golden Knights49%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
99753

Most important

By how much the result will affect playoff odds


Thursday, Dec. 22 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.win prob.score
Islanders40%
Rangers60%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
759585

Best overall matchup

By the average of quality and importance


Tuesday, Dec. 20 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m.win prob.score
Rangers42%
Penguins58%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
878887

Games in the next two weeks of the NHL schedule with the greatest impact, based on matchup ratings on a scale of 0-100.

Upcoming games

Thursday, Dec. 8
7 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Predators34%
Lightning66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
834061
7 p.m.win prob.score
Kings34%
Maple Leafs66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
822855
7:30 p.m.win prob.score
Red Wings32%
Panthers68%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
436956
8 p.m.win prob.score
Jets44%
Blues56%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
716166
8:30 p.m.win prob.score
Senators34%
Stars66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
341424
Friday, Dec. 9
7 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Islanders44%
Devils56%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
595054
7 p.m.win prob.score
Flames56%
Blue Jackets44%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
221619
7 p.m.win prob.score
Kraken38%
Capitals62%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
367957
7 p.m.win prob.score
Penguins52%
Sabres48%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
513241
8:30 p.m.win prob.score
Jets58%
Blackhawks42%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
13911
9 p.m.win prob.score
Wild43%
Oilers57%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
848082
9 p.m.win prob.score
Rangers36%
Avalanche64%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
972661
9:30 p.m.win prob.score
Bruins66%
Coyotes34%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
57531
10 p.m.win prob.score
Sharks45%
Ducks55%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
000
10 p.m.win prob.score
Flyers27%
Golden Knights73%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
17410
Saturday, Dec. 10
1:30 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Senators37%
Predators63%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
202824
2 p.m.win prob.score
Red Wings34%
Stars66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
343032
4:30 p.m.win prob.score
Panthers39%
Lightning61%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
965274
7 p.m.win prob.score
Kings51%
Canadiens49%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
113724
7 p.m.win prob.score
Flames38%
Maple Leafs62%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
931956
7 p.m.win prob.score
Sabres34%
Penguins66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
512638
7:30 p.m.win prob.score
Hurricanes48%
Islanders52%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
835368
10 p.m.win prob.score
Wild48%
Canucks52%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
618472
Sunday, Dec. 11
3 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Avalanche52%
Blues48%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
943866
6 p.m.win prob.score
Kraken34%
Panthers66%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
557464
6 p.m.win prob.score
Kings51%
Blue Jackets49%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
111915
7 p.m.win prob.score
Flyers41%
Coyotes59%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
021
7 p.m.win prob.score
Capitals41%
Jets59%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
674556
8 p.m.win prob.score
Bruins51%
Golden Knights49%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
99753

Completed games

Wednesday, Dec. 7
final/OTwin prob.score
Canucks52%6
Sharks48%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
51610
finalwin prob.score
Rangers40%5
Golden Knights60%1

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
872355
finalwin prob.score
Coyotes30%2
Oilers70%8

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
222021
finalwin prob.score
Bruins43%4
Avalanche57%0

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100653
finalwin prob.score
Wild44%3
Flames56%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
827578
finalwin prob.score
Sabres46%9
Blue Jackets54%4

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
465
finalwin prob.score
Capitals55%4
Flyers45%1

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
72013
Tuesday, Dec. 6
final/OTwin prob.score
Hurricanes63%3
Ducks37%4

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
17511
finalwin prob.score
Canadiens36%4
Kraken64%2

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
52716
finalwin prob.score
Maple Leafs46%4
Stars54%0

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
921352
finalwin prob.score
Panthers46%2
Jets54%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
835066
finalwin prob.score
Blues41%7
Islanders59%4

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
646464
finalwin prob.score
Blackhawks32%0
Devils68%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
867
finalwin prob.score
Kings47%5
Senators53%2

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
193125
finalwin prob.score
Red Wings28%4
Lightning72%2

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
591637
finalwin prob.score
Blue Jackets31%1
Penguins69%4

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
321523
Monday, Dec. 5
final/OTwin prob.score
Canadiens35%6
Canucks65%7

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
71812
finalwin prob.score
Coyotes31%2
Flames69%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
202321
finalwin prob.score
Capitals39%3
Oilers61%2

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
685762
finalwin prob.score
Avalanche68%3
Flyers32%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
44323
finalwin prob.score
Blues41%4
Rangers59%6

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
688275
final/SOwin prob.score
Golden Knights36%4
Bruins64%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
99552
Sunday, Dec. 4
finalwin prob.score
Blackhawks31%0
Islanders69%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
131514
finalwin prob.score
Sharks38%3
Sabres62%6

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
253
finalwin prob.score
Red Wings43%4
Blue Jackets57%2

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
3127
final/SOwin prob.score
Wild43%6
Stars57%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
844564
finalwin prob.score
Ducks29%2
Jets71%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
7108
More NHL coverage
How this works These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »

Design and development by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía. Edited by Maya Sweedler, Julia Wolfe and Sara Ziegler. Statistical model by Ryan Best and Neil Paine. Additional contributions by Jay Boice.