# 2022-23 NHL Predictions

## Updated after every game.

### Highest quality

By the harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings

Sunday, Dec. 11 @ 8 p.m. Eastern

8 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Bruins | 51% | |

Golden Knights | 49% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

99 | 7 | 53 |

### Most important

By how much the result will affect playoff odds

Thursday, Dec. 22 @ 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Islanders | 40% | |

Rangers | 60% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

75 | 95 | 85 |

### Best overall matchup

By the average of quality and importance

Tuesday, Dec. 20 @ 7 p.m. Eastern

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Rangers | 42% | |

Penguins | 58% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

87 | 88 | 87 |

Games in the next two weeks of the NHL schedule with the greatest impact, based on matchup ratings on a scale of 0-100.

#### Upcoming games

##### Thursday, Dec. 8

7 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Predators | 34% | |

Lightning | 66% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

83 | 40 | 61 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Kings | 34% | |

Maple Leafs | 66% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

82 | 28 | 55 |

7:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Red Wings | 32% | |

Panthers | 68% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

43 | 69 | 56 |

8 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Jets | 44% | |

Blues | 56% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

71 | 61 | 66 |

8:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Senators | 34% | |

Stars | 66% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

34 | 14 | 24 |

##### Friday, Dec. 9

7 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Islanders | 44% | |

Devils | 56% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

59 | 50 | 54 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Flames | 56% | |

Blue Jackets | 44% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

22 | 16 | 19 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Kraken | 38% | |

Capitals | 62% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

36 | 79 | 57 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Penguins | 52% | |

Sabres | 48% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

51 | 32 | 41 |

8:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Jets | 58% | |

Blackhawks | 42% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

13 | 9 | 11 |

9 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Wild | 43% | |

Oilers | 57% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

84 | 80 | 82 |

9 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Rangers | 36% | |

Avalanche | 64% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

97 | 26 | 61 |

9:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Bruins | 66% | |

Coyotes | 34% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

57 | 5 | 31 |

10 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Sharks | 45% | |

Ducks | 55% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

0 | 0 | 0 |

10 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Flyers | 27% | |

Golden Knights | 73% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

17 | 4 | 10 |

##### Saturday, Dec. 10

1:30 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Senators | 37% | |

Predators | 63% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

20 | 28 | 24 |

2 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Red Wings | 34% | |

Stars | 66% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

34 | 30 | 32 |

4:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Panthers | 39% | |

Lightning | 61% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

96 | 52 | 74 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Kings | 51% | |

Canadiens | 49% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

11 | 37 | 24 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Flames | 38% | |

Maple Leafs | 62% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

93 | 19 | 56 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Sabres | 34% | |

Penguins | 66% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

51 | 26 | 38 |

7:30 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Hurricanes | 48% | |

Islanders | 52% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

83 | 53 | 68 |

10 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Wild | 48% | |

Canucks | 52% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

61 | 84 | 72 |

##### Sunday, Dec. 11

3 p.m. Eastern | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Avalanche | 52% | |

Blues | 48% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

94 | 38 | 66 |

6 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Kraken | 34% | |

Panthers | 66% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

55 | 74 | 64 |

6 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Kings | 51% | |

Blue Jackets | 49% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

11 | 19 | 15 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Flyers | 41% | |

Coyotes | 59% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

0 | 2 | 1 |

7 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Capitals | 41% | |

Jets | 59% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

67 | 45 | 56 |

8 p.m. | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Bruins | 51% | |

Golden Knights | 49% |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result will alter league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

99 | 7 | 53 |

#### Completed games

##### Wednesday, Dec. 7

final/OT | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Canucks | 52% | ✓6 |

Sharks | 48% | 5 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

5 | 16 | 10 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Rangers | 40% | ✓5 |

Golden Knights | 60% | 1 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

87 | 23 | 55 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Coyotes | 30% | 2 |

Oilers | 70% | ✓8 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

22 | 20 | 21 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Bruins | 43% | ✓4 |

Avalanche | 57% | 0 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

100 | 6 | 53 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Wild | 44% | 3 |

Flames | 56% | ✓5 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

82 | 75 | 78 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Sabres | 46% | ✓9 |

Blue Jackets | 54% | 4 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

4 | 6 | 5 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Capitals | 55% | ✓4 |

Flyers | 45% | 1 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

7 | 20 | 13 |

##### Tuesday, Dec. 6

final/OT | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Hurricanes | 63% | 3 |

Ducks | 37% | ✓4 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

17 | 5 | 11 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Canadiens | 36% | ✓4 |

Kraken | 64% | 2 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

5 | 27 | 16 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Maple Leafs | 46% | ✓4 |

Stars | 54% | 0 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

92 | 13 | 52 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Panthers | 46% | 2 |

Jets | 54% | ✓5 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

83 | 50 | 66 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Blues | 41% | ✓7 |

Islanders | 59% | 4 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

64 | 64 | 64 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Blackhawks | 32% | 0 |

Devils | 68% | ✓3 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

8 | 6 | 7 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Kings | 47% | ✓5 |

Senators | 53% | 2 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

19 | 31 | 25 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Red Wings | 28% | ✓4 |

Lightning | 72% | 2 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

59 | 16 | 37 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Blue Jackets | 31% | 1 |

Penguins | 69% | ✓4 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

32 | 15 | 23 |

##### Monday, Dec. 5

final/OT | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Canadiens | 35% | 6 |

Canucks | 65% | ✓7 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

7 | 18 | 12 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Coyotes | 31% | 2 |

Flames | 69% | ✓3 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

20 | 23 | 21 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Capitals | 39% | ✓3 |

Oilers | 61% | 2 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

68 | 57 | 62 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Avalanche | 68% | 3 |

Flyers | 32% | ✓5 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

44 | 3 | 23 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Blues | 41% | 4 |

Rangers | 59% | ✓6 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

68 | 82 | 75 |

final/SO | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Golden Knights | 36% | ✓4 |

Bruins | 64% | 3 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

99 | 5 | 52 |

##### Sunday, Dec. 4

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Blackhawks | 31% | 0 |

Islanders | 69% | ✓3 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

13 | 15 | 14 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Sharks | 38% | 3 |

Sabres | 62% | ✓6 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

2 | 5 | 3 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Red Wings | 43% | ✓4 |

Blue Jackets | 57% | 2 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

3 | 12 | 7 |

final/SO | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Wild | 43% | ✓6 |

Stars | 57% | 5 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

84 | 45 | 64 |

final | win prob. | score |
---|---|---|

Ducks | 29% | 2 |

Jets | 71% | ✓5 |

quality The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings | importance How much the result altered league projections | overall The average of quality and importance | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

7 | 10 | 8 |

More NHL coverage

How this works These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »

Design and development by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía. Edited by Maya Sweedler, Julia Wolfe and Sara Ziegler. Statistical model by Ryan Best and Neil Paine. Additional contributions by Jay Boice.

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