UPDATED Jun. 8, 2023, at 11:26 PM

2022-23 NHL Predictions

Updated after every game.

Upcoming games

Saturday, June 10Stanley Cup Finals
Game 48 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Golden Knights2-145%
Panthers55%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Tuesday, June 13Stanley Cup Finals
Game 58 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Panthers37%
Golden Knights2-163%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Friday, June 16Stanley Cup Finals
Game 68 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Golden Knights2-145%
Panthers55%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Monday, June 19Stanley Cup Finals
Game 78 p.m. Easternwin prob.score
Panthers37%
Golden Knights2-163%

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result will alter league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100

Completed games

Thursday, June 8Stanley Cup Finals
Game 3final/OTwin prob.score
Golden Knights2-146%2
Panthers54%3

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Monday, June 5Stanley Cup Finals
Game 2finalwin prob.score
Panthers38%2
Golden Knights2-062%7

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Saturday, June 3Stanley Cup Finals
Game 1finalwin prob.score
Panthers39%2
Golden Knights1-061%5

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
100100100
Monday, May 29Conference Finals
Game 6finalwin prob.score
Golden Knights4-244%6
Stars56%0

quality
The harmonic mean of the teams’ Elo ratings
importance
How much the result altered league projections
overall
The average of quality and importance
9910099
More NHL coverage
How this works These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Read more »

Design and development by Ryan Best and Elena Mejía. Edited by Maya Sweedler, Julia Wolfe and Sara Ziegler. Statistical model by Ryan Best and Neil Paine. Additional contributions by Jay Boice.