Latest articles
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/PollaPalooza_6_13_24_v06_LY_1718386125976_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240613_538_PoliticsPod_clip3_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240613_538_PoliticsPod_clip2_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240613_538_PoliticsPod_clip1_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/Politics/biden-joe-hunter-rt-lv-240611_1718143732936_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240611_538_politicspod_clip3_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
Should voters look at election forecast as codification?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240611_538_politicspod_clip2_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240611_538_politicspod_clip1_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240610_538_Monday_Podcast_DC_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/ForecastLaunch_v01_DG_1717609248702_hpMain_v1x1_4x3t_384.jpg)
Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.
How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/ForecastLaunch_v02_DG_1717609248736_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.
10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/mace-gty-er-240607_1717787433067_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.
Abortion-rights ballot measures are leading in the polls
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/Abortion_v01_DG_1717770987459_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Two years after Dobbs, Americans still broadly support abortion access.
Democratic women are overperforming in 2024 primaries; Republicans lag behind
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/Angela-Alsobrooks-gty-jm-240605_1717618765149_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
We're tracking how many women are running (and winning) in primaries this year.
Trump’s conviction may be hurting him — but it’s early
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/Politics/trump11-rt-ml-240529_1716995001933_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Post-verdict polling shows a slight shift toward Biden.
Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240603_538_PoliticsPod_clip3_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240603_538_PoliticsPod_clip2_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240603_538_PoliticsPod_Elliott_clip1_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/060324_538_TrumpHushMoney3_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/060324_538_TrumpPollGuilty_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
4 primaries to watch in New Jersey, Montana and Iowa
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/Menendez-Bhalla-gtty-jm-240531_1717186294870_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Bob Menendez's trial could cost his son reelection.
Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240531_538_PoliticsPod_nathaniel_clip3_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240531_538_PoliticsPod_jessica_clip2_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
How the jury got to the guilty verdict
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240531_538_PoliticsPod_jessica_clip1_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/Politics/trump21-rt-ml-240529_1717000993840_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
Polling isn't broken, but pollsters still face Trump-era challenges
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/538_Pollart_V05.5_GV_1717085236684_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Pollsters are trying to reach more Republicans and gauge turnout in 2024.
Republicans are ramping up election fraud claims ahead of November
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/save-2-gty-gmh-240529_1716991073732_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
It could lay the groundwork for again contesting the presidential election.
Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240529_538_PoliticsPod_clip3_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.
Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240529_538_PoliticsPod_clip2_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240529_538_PoliticsPod_clip1_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.
What to know about the UK’s July general election
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240524_538_UKelection_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
With the announcement that the U.K. will hold general elections on July 4, the electoral picture for the Conservative Party is currently negative and they have six weeks to try to change it.
Will Nikki Haley supporters vote for Trump?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240524_538_HaleySupporters_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley said on Wednesday that she is going to vote for former President Donald Trump this fall, but what will her supporters do?
How will Trump's hush money trial impact the 2024 election?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/SlackChat_Kaleigh052824_V01_GV_1716919311244_hpMain_4x3t_384.jpg)
Trump could get convicted, but it may not matter to voters.
Will there be record-breaking turnout for the 2024 election?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240520_538_podcast_clip3_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
The team at 538 predicts how this year’s voter turnout will compare to the unusually high turnout during the 2018 and 2020 election cycles.
Will low voter enthusiasm affect election turnout?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240520_538_podcast_clip2_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we examine the low voter enthusiasm for the presidential candidates. Are there other factors that could drive Americans to the polls?
Which candidate benefits more from early debates?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/240520_538_podcast_clip1_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
The 538 crew discusses the presidential debates and which candidate benefits more from their earlier-than-usual schedule.
What potential threats are experts and voters concerned about?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/trump_nr_538_240516_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
"Experts placed a really high probability on a number of very concerning norm breaking scenarios occurring," about a second Trump term, according to Gretchen Helmke.
Polls show some Americans are losing faith in our elections
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/voting_nr_538_240516_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Gretchen Helmke of Bright Line Watch discusses how Americans feel about our voting systems and American Democracy.
Why are voters worried about democracy?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/jan6_nr_538_240516_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
In the latest polling from The New York Times/Siena College, 14% of voters said the economic and political system needs to be torn down entirely, while 55% said it needs major changes.
Maryland's contentious Senate race
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/maryland_primary_538_ap_nr_240514_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
The 538 crew dive into Tuesday's Democratic primary election in Maryland.
Has inflation been Biden's biggest political problem?
![](https://s.abcnews.com/images/538/fed_reuters_538_nr_240513_hpMain_4x3_384.jpg)
Polling shows that President Joe Biden has a negligible lead over former President Donald Trump when it comes to job creation, infrastructure and the economy.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
![](/2024-election-forecast/images/fivey-calculator.png?v=d64343ef)
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
---|---|---|---|---|
June 14-16 | 1.8 | Biden 44% 43% Trump | Biden +1 | |
June 11-13 | 1.8 | Biden 44% 43% Trump | Biden +1 | |
June 12 | 2.8 | Biden 37% 38% Trump | Trump +1 | |
June 11-12 | 1.8 | Biden 41% 40% Trump | Biden +1 | |
June 10-12 | 2.7 | Biden 42% 43% Trump | Trump +1 | |
June 9-11 | 2.9 | Biden 40% 42% Trump | Trump +2 | |
June 8-11 | 2.5 | Biden 45% 45% Trump | Even | |
June 8-10 | 1.8 | Biden 43% 44% Trump | Trump +1 | |
June 7-9 | 1.6 | Biden 43% 42% Trump | Biden +1 | |
June 5-7 | 1.8 | Biden 43% 44% Trump | Trump +1 |
Sponsor
Latest updates
With 141 days until Election Day, our forecast still sees the presidential race as a pure toss-up. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in XXX out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in XXX of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In XXX simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.
Compared to last week, the fundamentals have gotten slightly better for Biden — owing to positive releases of payroll, wage growth, inflation and stock market data. But a preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for June also flashed red last week, so the good news for Biden may not last for long. And at 38 percent (brushing against the lowest mark of his presidency), the president’s approval rating is not doing him any favors. Currently, though, our median fundamentals-only forecast for the national popular vote is holding steady at roughly +3 for Biden.
Meanwhile, the polls continue to suggest a slight edge for Trump in both the popular vote and the Electoral College. As mentioned in our discussion of the model on the 538 Politics podcast last week, these polls will continue to receive more weight in our forecast as we approach November — and that will keep pulling Biden’s overall chances down unless his numbers improve. That’s not happening yet, though: Recent polls aren’t suggesting statewide momentum for either candidate relative to last week’s forecasts. And national polls indicate that the recent judicial news surrounding each candidate — the conviction of Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, and the conviction of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, on charges relating to purchasing a gun while on drugs — has not yet meaningfully impacted vote intention.
What should you watch for this week? Besides the typical stream of polls, we’ll get new data on private residential housing construction and manufacturing sales, both of which feed into our model.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
![](/2024-election-forecast/images/fivey-professor.png?v=a9a7d6ca)
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
![](/2024-election-forecast/images/fivey-professor.png?v=a9a7d6ca)
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
Biden wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 21 out of 100 |
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 13 out of 100 |
Biden wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 27 out of 100 |
Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 37 out of 100 |
Biden wins the national popular vote | 60 out of 100 |
Trump wins the national popular vote | 40 out of 100 |
Biden wins a majority of the national popular vote | 24 out of 100 |
Trump wins a majority of the national popular vote | 11 out of 100 |
Biden wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 13 out of 100 |
Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 5 out of 100 |
Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 12 out of 100 |
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
Every state votes for the same candidate that it did in 2020 | <1 out of 100 |
Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 5 out of 100 |
Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | 59 out of 100 |
Biden wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 49 out of 100 |
Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 80 out of 100 |
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