Are polls that use AI chatbots even polls? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team plays another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling” to discuss how an experimental polling company, Aaru, uses AI chatbots to obtain information about political preferences.

October 8, 2024

The election might not be that close after all | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate.

October 8, 2024

Will there be a racial realignment in the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast

538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss crosstabs and whether they can predict a racial realignment on Election Day.

October 8, 2024

What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks

They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid.

October 7, 2024

Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?

Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November.

October 4, 2024

Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election

Our third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states.

October 3, 2024

How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.

October 3, 2024

What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.

October 3, 2024

Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

October 3, 2024

What early polls say about who won the VP debate

Americans are split over whether Vance or Walz won.

October 2, 2024

How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.

October 1, 2024

How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race

538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.

October 1, 2024

Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.

October 1, 2024

Why VP debates aren't all that important

Historically, they haven't really moved the polls.

October 1, 2024

The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping-point state

A close contest means one state could decide the outcome.

September 30, 2024

Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.

September 27, 2024

Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years

Our second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

September 27, 2024

The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.

September 27, 2024

What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.

September 27, 2024

Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries

But Democratic women could expand their ranks this year after a strong showing.

September 27, 2024

Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump's platform?

Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about Trump's policies.

September 25, 2024

This could be the closest presidential election since 1876

But a normal polling error could also result in one candidate winning easily.

September 24, 2024

Why Democrats are doing better in Senate races than presidentially

The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.

September 24, 2024

Will the Electoral College benefit Republicans again? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024.

September 24, 2024

What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.

September 24, 2024

What polling says about key 2024 Senate races

538 has released Senate polling averages for the general election.

September 24, 2024

Are Republicans still talking about abortion?

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September 20, 2024

How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.

September 20, 2024

What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.

September 20, 2024

How important is identity to Black voters? | 538 Politics podcast

University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.

September 20, 2024

Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?

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September 20, 2024

How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024

Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.

September 19, 2024

Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries

But progressive candidates still won most of the open races they ran in.

September 18, 2024

Is the gender gap growing? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.

September 18, 2024

Does the Taylor Swift effect include voting? | 538 Politics podcast

The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.

September 18, 2024

What do voters think about political violence? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.

September 18, 2024

Make your picks on the 2024 Interactive Electoral Map

ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.

September 17, 2024

Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast

The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden.

September 11, 2024

How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast

ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate.

September 11, 2024

Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate.

September 11, 2024

What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election

The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.

September 10, 2024

What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.

September 10, 2024

UPDATED Oct. 12, 2024, at 1:31 PM

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.

Harris wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 47 times out of 100.
Harris
 
000
Trump
 
000
No winner
 
000
 
 simulations
Harris wins 
Trump wins 
Electoral vote margin

What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?

We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.

DatesPollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster RatingResultNet result
Oct. 7-10
2.3
Harris
50%
47%
Trump
Harris +3
Oct. 6-8
1.1
Harris
49%
47%
Trump
Harris +2
Oct. 3-8
No rating
Harris
49%
51%
Trump
Trump +2
Oct. 6-7
2.9
Harris
49%
45%
Trump
Harris +4
Oct. 4-7
2.8
Harris
49%
47%
Trump
Harris +2
Oct. 6
1.8
Harris
48%
46%
Trump
Harris +2
Oct. 4-6
1.8
Harris
51%
46%
Trump
Harris +5
Oct. 4-6
2.5
Harris
49%
45%
Trump
Harris +4
Sept. 30-Oct. 6
2.5
Harris
48%
47%
Trump
Harris +1
Sept. 29-Oct. 6
3.0
Harris
47%
44%
Trump
Harris +3
Dates
Pollster
Sponsor
538 Pollster Rating
Result
Net result
50%
47%
Harris +3
49%
47%
Harris +2
Oct. 3-8
No rating
49%
51%
Trump +2
49%
45%
Harris +4
Oct. 4-7
2.8
49%
47%
Harris +2
48%
46%
Harris +2
Oct. 4-6
1.8
51%
46%
Harris +5
Oct. 4-6
2.5
49%
45%
Harris +4
Sept. 30-Oct. 6
2.5
48%
47%
Harris +1
47%
44%
Harris +3

Latest updates

LAST UPDATED Oct. 10

A fresh batch of close polls released Oct. 10 has Democrats worried and sent Vice President Kamala Harris’s odds of victory sliding to their lowest point yet in prediction markets for the Electoral College. Those polls — most notably from Emerson College, Marist College and The New York Times, three of the most prolific pollsters in America — show Harris and former President Donald Trump tied in the northern battlegrounds and Harris trailing heavily in Florida. But our forecast came to a different conclusion: Currently, our model gives Harris a XXX out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes, up from the brink of 50-50 on the evening of Oct. 9.

The difference boils down to one thing: trends, not levels. If you compare Harris’s margin over Trump in polls released Oct. 10 to the results of previous polls by the same pollsters in the same places, Harris’s margin has increased by an average of 0.4 percentage points. And according to our election model, which looks at differences in results among all pollsters to identify whether a firm leans to the left or the right, the polls from Emerson in particular have tended to underestimate Harris compared to polls with the same methodology (a mix of robocalls and online interviews) in the same geographies. This means our starting point when looking at these new polls is that Harris is doing better than they indicate, by about a point on vote margin, and that she is either holding steady or gaining ground.

But The New York Times/Siena College poll in Florida should worry Democrats. It single-handedly moved the 538 poll average in the state from Trump+4 to Trump +5, and could indicate broader weakness of pollsters to sample Republican voters properly. However, The Times’s surveys in Texas and Montana came in right on target with our forecast, prompting our model to think the race is more of the same than worth a dramatic shift in estimates. So this is a good place to remind you: More of the same in forecasting today is still forecasting a toss-up race.

538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

—G. Elliott Morris

How has the forecast changed over time?

The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.

Who’s favored to win each state?

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.

Hover over a state to see its forecast
State Name
XX EVs
Chance of a win
XX out of 100 Harris win
XX out of 100 Trump win
Solid D
≥98 in 100%
Likely D
≥75 in 100%
Lean D
≥60 in 100%
Toss-up
Both <60 in 100%
Lean R
≥60 in 100%
Likely R
≥75 in 100%
Solid R
≥98 in 100%
Chance of a win based on 538’s forecast
Likeliest tipping-point states
Maine and Nebraska’s congressional districts are shown separately because those states split their Electoral College votes, allotting two to the statewide winner and one to the winner of each district.

What are the closest races?

Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
State
Forecasted margin of victory
Vote share
VPI
Tipping point
State
Forecasted margin of victory

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.

What does the path to 270 look like?

Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.

Zoom out

What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?

Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.

Median
95% of outcomes fall in this range
Margin of victory
Polling averages
Polling averages

Polling average

The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.

Adjusted polling average

The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.

Forecast components
Weight

Forecast of polling average on Election Day

The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

00

Fundamentals-only forecast

What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.

00

Full forecast

Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.

Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)

Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios

The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.

Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)17 out of 100
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes)4 out of 100
Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes35 out of 100
Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes43 out of 100
Harris wins the national popular vote69 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote31 out of 100
Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points9 out of 100
Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points2 out of 100
Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College16 out of 100
Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College<1 out of 100
No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes<1 out of 100
Every state votes for the same party that it did in 20201 out of 100
Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state)7 out of 100
Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates<1 out of 100
Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 202051 out of 100
Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 202079 out of 100
What’s happening in the other races?
What’s happening in the House of Representatives?
See House forecast

Credits

Sources: American National Election Studies, The American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara, Ballotpedia, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, Federal Election Commission, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Our Campaigns, polls, The Roper Center, state election websites, U.S. Census Bureau, University of Michigan Survey Research Center, VoteSmart