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The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Democrats could take control of state governments in Arizona and New Hampshire.
Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
The race is uncertain, but that doesn’t mean the outcome will be close.
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
How to look at early voting data responsibly
With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
Our final deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How this year's polling compares with other recent elections.
In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states
Most would restore pre-Dobbs protections, but some advocates want to go further.
Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?
Polls are more reliable in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
Our sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
Introducing 538's forecast for the 2024 U.S. Senate elections.
How 538's 2024 Senate election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's model.
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
The difference between undecided voters and swing voters
The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
What percent of voters are truly undecided?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
No matter what polls you look at, the 2024 election is super close.
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
Why your vote matters in 2024
In the 2000 presidential race, the election came down to Florida, and the winner of the Sunshine State won by less than 0.1 percent of the vote.
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
States are voting on school choice and more in 2024.
Why voting patterns may shift this election
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
What the polls say about the 2024 election
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss the latest polling data showing an extremely close presidential race.
How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Even if they don't change voters' minds, they could dampen turnout.
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
Our fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days
Paid leave and minimum wage policies have passed by ballot initiative before.
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race
538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 3-4 | 2.7 | Harris 48% 49% Trump | Trump +1 | |
| Nov. 2-3 | 1.9 | Harris 48% 45% Trump | Harris +3 | |
| Nov. 1-3 | 2.8 | Harris 50% 48% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Nov. 2-3 | 2.5 | Harris 48% 46% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Nov. 1-3 | 1.8 | Harris 48% 49% Trump | Trump +1 | |
| Nov. 1-3 | 1.1 | Harris 49% 48% Trump | Harris +1 | |
| Oct. 31-Nov. 3 | 2.0 | Harris 49% 49% Trump | Even | |
| Oct. 31-Nov. 2 | 2.9 | Harris 51% 47% Trump | Harris +4 | |
| Nov. 1-2 | 2.7 | Harris 47% 49% Trump | Trump +2 | |
| Oct. 30-Nov. 2 | 1.6 | Harris 49% 48% Trump | Harris +1 |
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Latest updates
538’s final forecast for the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is officially out, and it’s a real nail-biter. Our model gives Harris a XXX out of 100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. Our model gives Trump a XXX out of 100 chance.
The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more Trump-leaning race but also moved in Harris’s direction Monday.
A close race in the polls, though, does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently “losing” in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
How the popular vote translates into electoral votes
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
00
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
00
Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
| Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 8 out of 100 |
| Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 41 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 47 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote | 71 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote | 29 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 4 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 21 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
| No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
| Every state votes for the same party that it did in 2020 | 1 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 10 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | <1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020 | 42 out of 100 |
| Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 82 out of 100 |
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