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So, what's a P-Value?
P-values are really important in scientific research. But do scientists even know what they are?
Chicago's young voters talk 2024 presidential election at the DNC
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich speaks with three young voters from Chicago as the 2024 Democratic National Convention takes place.
Yes, party conventions matter
Most viewers are partisans, but the events help energize the party bases.
The Obamas dominate night 2 of the DNC | 538 Politics Podcast
The crew reacts to night two of the Democratic National Convention
Harris is starting to rebuild the Biden coalition
But she still lags the party’s 2020 performance among key demographic groups.
Do voters know what Harris stands for? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses Harris' policy positions, or the lack thereof, with senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley, and whether this could be an advantage for her.
How much influence does Harris have on Biden's policies? | 538 Politics Podcast
538 senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks to Galen Druke about how Kamala Harris is set to establish her own presence outside of President Joe Biden as the 2024 DNC begins.
Who are presidential delegates and what are their roles?
538 senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich explains the role of delegates and how they're selected as the 2024 DNC kicks off in Chicago.
5 primaries to watch in Florida and Alaska
Gaetz faces a McCarthy-backed challenger in the Sunshine State.
Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago
538 looks at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
Greetings from the 2024 DNC in Chicago
538’s Nathaniel Rakich takes a look at the history of political conventions in the Windy City.
How do voters pick a candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discusses what questions voters consider when going to the polls.
How important is the border for Latino voters? | 538 Politics Podcast
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke talk about the importance of Vice President Kamala Harris clarifying her stance on issues like immigration.
Democratic support among Latino voters has shifted since Biden dropped out
538's Galen Druke talks to Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, about a possible shift in Latino voters toward Vice President Kamala Harris.
Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?
Harris has a challenge, and an opportunity, to define her stance on the war.
JD Vance is more unpopular than Sarah Palin
Vance is one of the least popular vice-presidential picks this century.
Will Harris's late start help or hurt her in the general election?
She isn't the first to secure a presidential nomination this close to November.
Do voters think of Harris as a DEI candidate? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik discuss polling around the belief that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be a DEI candidate.
What does poll denialism reveal? | 538 Politics Podcast
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and 538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich play another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling?"
Trump’s line of attack for the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about former President Donald Trump’s latest strategy to win votes.
6 primaries to watch in Minnesota and Wisconsin
Rep. Ilhan Omar is the latest Squad member to face a serious challenger.
Americans don't like Project 2025
Plus, polls on vaccines, the child tax credit and which party is more "weird."
Why immigration is a better issue for Trump than it was in 2020
Public opinion about immigration has swung to the right since Biden took office.
A look at Gov. Tim Walz’s political history | 538 Politics Podcast
Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about VP pick Walz’s progressive record as governor.
Tim Walz’s appeal in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team reacts to Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris’s VP pick and discusses Tim Walz’s appeal in the 2024 election.
The challenges ahead for the Harris-Walz campaign | 538 Politics Podcast
ABC News Politics Reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses the Harris-Walz campaign and its challenges.
Can Harris ride memes all the way to the White House?
Her popularity on social media mirrors her rise in the polls.
Tim Walz was the safe VP pick
But he probably won't give Harris an electoral boost.
How would a general election debate impact the presidential campaign?
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd discusses how a presidential debate could benefit Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris.
How has reaction to Russian prisoner swap impacted the Biden-Harris administration?
Senior Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley talks with Galen Druke about how the latest Russian prisoner swap impacted the popularity of the current administration and Kamala Harris.
What the polls say about a Harris vs. Trump matchup
The 538 team discusses the latest polling and how the election is looking like a toss-up.
18 primaries to watch in Missouri, Michigan, Washington and Kansas
Rep. Cori Bush faces a major challenge in her St. Louis-based seat.
Harris and Trump are tied in 538’s new polling averages
Harris is doing noticeably better than Biden was before he dropped out.
What is civic respect? | 538 Politics Podcast
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev talk about sweeping claims and how they relate to civic respect.
How people can respectfully disagree over politics
Political science professor Jeff Spinner-Halev discusses the difference between civic respect toward a person versus their belief.
How the political parties got so far apart
Political science professors Elizabeth Theiss-Morse and Jeff Spinner-Halev discuss with Galen Druke how political parties have sorted over time.
How will sexism impact Harris's presidential campaign?
She's already responding to a slew of gendered and racist attacks.
The potential of Tim Walz as the Harris VP pick
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the Minnesota governor as the potential running mate for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
Could Josh Shapiro be the Harris VP pick? | 538 Politics Podcast
The Pennsylvania governor is a popular and charismatic politician and is on the shortlist for vice president.
Does the VP pick impact a presidential candidate’s support? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses who is on the shortlist for vice president for the Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
How Harris’ border record could impact her campaign message | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with Geoffrey Skelley about what might be in store for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign.
Can Harris rally the Obama coalition in this election? | 538 Politics Podcast
Senior elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley joins the 538 Politics podcast to talk about what has changed and what hasn’t in the 2024 presidential race.
Does enthusiasm for candidates matter in this presidential race?
In the span of just two days, Vice President Kamala Harris consolidated support within the Democratic Party and is well on her way to securing the Democratic nomination.
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest national polls influencing the forecast?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 3-9 | No rating | Harris 51% 49% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Sept. 6-8 | 1.8 | Harris 49% 46% Trump | Harris +3 | |
| Sept. 6-8 | 1.6 | Harris 49% 45% Trump | Harris +4 | |
| Sept. 3-6 | 3.0 | Harris 45% 47% Trump | Trump +2 | |
| Sept. 3-5 | 1.8 | Harris 49% 46% Trump | Harris +3 | |
| Sept. 3-5 | 2.9 | Harris 49% 48% Trump | Harris +1 | |
| Sept. 4-5 | 1.6 | Harris 49% 49% Trump | Even | |
| Sept. 3-5 | 2.3 | Harris 50% 48% Trump | Harris +2 | |
| Sept. 1-5 | No rating | Harris 51% 45% Trump | Harris +6 | |
| Sept. 3-4 | 2.9 | Harris 51% 48% Trump | Harris +3 |
Sponsor
Latest updates
Vice President Kamala Harris got a few scares in the polls over the weekend. A new national poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows Harris down two points versus Former President Donald Trump among likely voters. And surveys in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from YouGov and CBS News found Harris and Trump within the margin of error among likely voters. These new polls confirm a slight trend towards Trump over the last two weeks, moving our forecast of the race closer to a pure toss-up.
The big thing to watch this week will be any post-debate polls from the big pollsters. I expect a quick turnaround of national polls from online panels later in the week, national live-phone polls to come out Friday and over the weekend, and state polls over the weekend and into next week. Any significant changes in the polls could impact our forecast somewhat aggressively, since we are now in the stage of the campaign where remaining volatility is declining rapidly as the time left for polls to change vanishes.
Still, it would take quite a shift to move the forecast into the 70+ percent probability range for either candidate; given recent misses in pre-election polls, our forecast factors in a relatively high probability of a correlated, large bias among most polls. Such a miss would cause averages across states to overstate support for one candidate by similar amounts (sound familiar?). If the campaign stays roughly the way it’s been for months, expect the model to see a close race through Election Day.
538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.
—G. Elliott Morris
How has the forecast changed over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
Who’s favored to win each state?
Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote.
What are the closest races?
Use the table below to sort states by name, forecasted margin of victory or two different metrics of how much influence they have over the outcome.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual voter in that state is to determine the outcome of the election.
What does the path to 270 look like?
Our “snake” chart orders the states by forecasted margin of victory. Scroll to the left or right to see uncompetitive states; more contested states are in the middle. Bigger segments mean more Electoral College votes.
How the popular vote translates into electoral votes
This graph shows the national popular vote margin and Electoral College margin in every model simulation. It shows you how often a candidate wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for Election Day.
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The national polling average adjusted for results of state polls and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
00
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
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Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
Unusual and not-so-unusual scenarios
The probability of each outcome below, according to our simulations.
| Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 21 out of 100 |
| Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350+ electoral votes) | 7 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 32 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the Electoral College with <350 electoral votes | 37 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote | 67 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote | 33 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 15 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the national popular vote by 10+ percentage points | 3 out of 100 |
| Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | 13 out of 100 |
| Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College | <1 out of 100 |
| No candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes | <1 out of 100 |
| Every state votes for the same party that it did in 2020 | <1 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a recount (winner's margin is <0.5% in a decisive state) | 6 out of 100 |
| Election is decided by a smaller margin than the vote share for third-party candidates | <1 out of 100 |
| Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020 | 57 out of 100 |
| Trump wins at least one state he didn't win in 2020 | 78 out of 100 |
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