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Who won the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
Trump and Biden talk taxes at 1st debate
New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik and senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich join the 538 Politics podcast to discuss the first presidential debate.
Would Biden step aside in 2024 election?
Senior election analyst Nathaniel Rakich reacts to President Joe Biden’s performance at the first debate.
Who won the 1st presidential debate?
538's Galen Druke is joined by senior elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik to talk about the first 2024 presidential debate.
Biden's biggest weakness -- his age -- on full display at debate: ANALYSIS
The president's age and perceived frailty became a clear liability on stage.
Who will win the first Biden-Trump presidential debate?
We’re partnering with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the debate.
Biden and Trump are in a toss-up race for president
Ahead of the first presidential debate on Thursday, 538 looks at the chances of each candidate winning the election this fall.
Why the Biden-Trump debate matters more than you think
Debates usually move the polls — and a tied race could shift either way.
What to expect from the 1st 2024 presidential debate
President Biden and former President Donald Trump will go head-to-head on Thursday.
All eyes on 3 high-profile primaries Tuesday
Polls are open in Colorado, New York, and Utah on Tuesday.
Upcoming debate is different than other debates
The debate Thursday between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is the first not run by the Commission on Presidential Debates since 1988.
How will polls change after the 1st presidential debate?
The 538 Politics podcast discusses whether President Joe Biden can increase his support until election night.
15 elections to watch in New York, Colorado, Utah and South Carolina
Jamaal Bowman and Lauren Boebert could both lose their primaries.
Trump's trial showed the legal system works, but his rhetoric has left scars
Legal experts are worried about Trump's ongoing attacks on the courts.
Do global election trends provide insight into the US election?
Experts explain how trends of discontent around the world could help explain the outcome for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Why are voters so dissatisfied around the world?
Experts talk about dissatisfaction among voters around the world.
Is discontent a trend for elections around the world?
Discontent among voters has been documented in Europe and the United States. Does this trend also exist in countries with upcoming elections?
Why RFK Jr. didn't qualify for the first presidential debate
He’s short on polls and ballot access but is pursuing legal action.
It's not just vibes. Americans' perception of the economy has completely changed.
The pandemic upended the factors that used to predict consumer sentiment.
7 primaries to watch in Virginia and Oklahoma
House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good could lose renomination.
A Supreme Court abortion ruling that voters will be happy about
Plus, voters' shifting priorities, Pride month and a poll about polling.
Beyond the election, how might AI be regulated? | 538 Politics Podcast
Last month, a bipartisan group of senators unveiled a roadmap for artificial intelligence policy, proposing $32 billion in funding to support AI research.
Lawmakers feel public pressure to regulate AI | 538 Politics Podcast
Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, joins the 538 Politics podcast.
How concerned are Americans with AI? | 538 Politics Podcast
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with Gregory Allen, director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies, about the politics of AI regulation.
Why Hunter Biden's guilty verdict probably won't affect the 2024 election
It's not clear that voters will fault the president for his son's wrongdoing.
How 2016 and 2020 polling errors are accounted for in the election forecast
In this episode of the 538 podcast, Elliott explains how the forecast model accounts for historical polling errors to minimize bias and accurately reflect a wide range of potential election outcomes.
Should voters look at election forecast as codification?
For us here at 538, forecasting is an exercise in quantifying the reliability of various indicators of public opinion.
Election forecast: History versus unknown unknowns?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Director of Data Analytics G. Elliott Morris joins Galen to discuss the forecast for the 2024 presidential election.
538’s new forecast says 2024 election a toss-up
In this 538 episode, 538's Galen Druke sits down with G. Elliott Morris, director of data analytics, to discuss the even odds between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast
Trump has a slight edge in the polls, but the fundamentals favor Biden.
How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works
Here's everything that goes into this year's brand-new model.
10 primaries to watch in South Carolina, North Dakota, Maine and Nevada
All of Tuesday's notable races are Republican primary elections.
Will Supreme Court rule on presidential immunity before the election?
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, senior Washington reporter, Devin Dwyer, and AP polling editor, Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux weigh in.
Half of Americans think Supreme Court is conservative
On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, we play a game of “Guess What Americans Think: Supreme Court Edition.”
How Trump's conviction in hush money case affects public opinion
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen and Elliott talk about the latest polling data.
How Trump's polls are changing post-conviction
538’s Galen Druke breaks down recent polling for the 2024 presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s conviction.
How Trump’s guilty verdict will impact the 2024 presidential election
Trump may lose some support, but the drop could be temporary.
Poll numbers could shift in wake of Trump’s guilty verdict
538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
Trump can’t appeal until after sentencing
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding.
How the jury got to the guilty verdict
In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth discusses the jury’s verdict in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
Donald Trump’s next move if he’s found guilty
Law professor and former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s options for appeal if he’s found guilty.
Does Trump’s trial hinge on Michael Cohen’s testimony?
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, law professor Jessica Roth joins Galen to discuss the possible outcomes in Donald Trump’s criminal trial.
Why Donald Trump didn’t take the stand
Jessica Roth, a law professor and former federal prosecutor, joins the 538 Politics podcast to discuss Trump’s criminal trial.
Who Is Favored To Win Florida's 30 Electoral Votes?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest polls in Florida?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 8-11 | 1.8 | Biden 37% 43% Trump | Trump +6 | |
| June 8-9 | No rating | Biden 40% 45% Trump | Trump +5 | |
| June 6-9 | 1.2 | Biden 36% 46% Trump | Trump +10 | |
| June 1-3 | 2.8 | Biden 40% 47% Trump | Trump +7 | |
| May 10-16 | 2.9 | Biden 36% 49% Trump | Trump +13 | |
| May 9-16 | No rating | Biden 39% 48% Trump | Trump +9 | |
| April 28-May 7 | 1.1 | Biden 37% 46% Trump | Trump +9 | |
| May 2-4 | 1.8 | Biden 38% 47% Trump | Trump +9 | |
| April 15-17 | No rating | Biden 40% 49% Trump | Trump +9 | |
| April 9-10 | 2.9 | Biden 35% 49% Trump | Trump +14 |
Sponsor
How has the forecast changed in Florida over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
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