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Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about Trump's policies.
This could be the closest presidential election since 1876
But a normal polling error could also result in one candidate winning easily.
Why Democrats are doing better in Senate races than presidentially
The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.
Will the Electoral College benefit Republicans again? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024.
What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.
What polling says about key 2024 Senate races
538 has released Senate polling averages for the general election.
Are Republicans still talking about abortion?
Swing-district Republicans downplayed abortion in the 2024 primaries.
How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.
How important is identity to Black voters? | 538 Politics podcast
University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.
Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?
Harris has a challenge, and an opportunity, to define her stance on the war.
How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024
Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
But progressive candidates still won most of the open races they ran in.
Is the gender gap growing? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.
Does the Taylor Swift effect include voting? | 538 Politics podcast
The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.
What do voters think about political violence? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.
Make your picks on the 2024 Interactive Electoral Map
ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.
Polls show Harris gaining after the presidential debate
She's up to a 61-in-100 chance of winning, per the 538 forecast.
Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries
But they didn't splash cash to oppose all high-profile progressives.
How to read political polls in 2024
Not all polls are created equal. Here's 538's guide to interpreting them.
Trump endorsed more Republicans in 2024 than ever before
The former president has taken over the traditional GOP endorsement apparatus.
How Taylor Swift's endorsement of Harris could change the election end game
Swift’s fans largely lean Democratic, but her support could boost engagement.
Early polls say Harris won the presidential debate
But it’s unclear how much, or whether, it will shift the race.
Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden.
How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate.
Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate.
What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election
The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
6 primaries to watch in New Hampshire and Delaware
Both states pick their next governors this year.
What the polls say ahead of the Harris-Trump presidential debate
Americans think Harris will win, but she has ground to make up on key issues.
Customize our 2024 presidential election forecast
Pick the winner in a state to see how 538's presidential forecast would change.
What does the upcoming presidential debate mean for Harris? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss the importance of Kamala Harris’s first presidential debate.
3 potential sources of polling error in the 2024 election | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about potential sources of error in polling.
The 2024 voting landscape is a recipe for confusion
High turnout and new voting rules could cause problems at the polls in November.
What issues are the most important to voters heading into November?
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about what issues are important to voters and which ones will become hot topics during election season.
How is Harris polling compared to Biden's 2020 performance? | 538 Politics Podcast
Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times talks about how Kamala Harris is performing among swing states and demographic groups.
Harris's candidacy has caused a surge in voter enthusiasm | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Ruth Igielnik of The New York Times about how voter enthusiasm has shifted since Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.
How the latest economic shifts could affect the presidential race
538's Galen Druke and Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times talk about potential economic changes that could impact how people vote in the 2024 presidential election.
How are Harris and Trump talking about the economy? | 538 Politics Podcast
Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times discusses how Democrats and Republicans are tackling issues like taxes and more on the campaign trail.
Economists are optimistic about the health of the economy | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke speaks with Jeanna Smialek from The New York Times about economic sentiment data leading up to the 2024 presidential election.
What can Washington state's primary tell us about November? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about how Washington state's primary results could be an indication of a shift toward Democrats in the national House vote.
Can RFK Jr. win a contingent election? | 538 Politics Podcast
The 538 team discusses the likelihood of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning a contingent election, following his exit from the 2024 presidential race.
How public opinion has changed from previous elections | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss Vice President Kamala Harris's differences from Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.
Who Is Favored To Win Michigan's 15 Electoral Votes?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest polls in Michigan?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 21-26 | 3.0 | Harris 46% 46% Trump | Even | |
| Sept. 19-25 | 1.8 | Harris 50% 46% Trump | Harris +4 | |
| Sept. 16-19 | 1.8 | Harris 46% 45% Trump | Harris +1 | |
| Sept. 11-19 | 2.9 | Harris 48% 43% Trump | Harris +5 | |
| Sept. 16-18 | 2.9 | Harris 48% 45% Trump | Harris +3 | |
| Sept. 15-18 | 2.9 | Harris 50% 49% Trump | Harris +1 | |
| Sept. 9-18 | 1.8 | Harris 52% 44% Trump | Harris +8 | |
| Sept. 12-17 | 2.9 | Harris 52% 47% Trump | Harris +5 | |
| Sept. 12-16 | 2.8 | Harris 50% 45% Trump | Harris +5 | |
| Sept. 3-16 | No rating | Harris 49% 48% Trump | Harris +1 |
Sponsor
How has the forecast changed in Michigan over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting the two-way popular vote between Democrats and Republicans.
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for [state] on Election Day.
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of polls in [state] and accounting for trends in national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The polling average for [state] adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
00
Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
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Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
How has [state] voted in the past?
The results of the last six presidential elections in [state] compared with the national popular vote.
| 20XX | Dem. | Rep. |
|---|---|---|
| ST | XX.X% | XX.X% |
| U.S. | XX.X% | XX.X% |
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