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Are polls that use AI chatbots even polls? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team plays another round of "Good or Bad Use of Polling” to discuss how an experimental polling company, Aaru, uses AI chatbots to obtain information about political preferences.
The election might not be that close after all | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses whether average polling error in presidential elections could translate into a landslide victory for either candidate.
Will there be a racial realignment in the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss crosstabs and whether they can predict a racial realignment on Election Day.
What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks
They've grown less supportive of Israel's actions and U.S. military aid.
Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?
Keep an eye on the gender gap and a possible racial realignment in November.
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
Our third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states.
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
What issues matter to Americans? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss how important voters rank climate change, national security and the Middle East ahead of the election.
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
What early polls say about who won the VP debate
Americans are split over whether Vance or Walz won.
How Harris is distancing herself from Biden on the economy | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses the strategic differences between the Harris campaign when addressing inflation and the economy compared to President Joe Biden.
How a scandal in New York could affect the national House race
538's Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss allegations of possible violations of ethics rules by Rep. Anthony D'Esposito and what it means for which party wins the House.
Will foreign policy impact the 2024 election? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses conflict in the Middle East and whether it impacts whom Americans will cast their ballot for in November.
Why VP debates aren't all that important
Historically, they haven't really moved the polls.
The 2024 election could come down to a single tipping-point state
A close contest means one state could decide the outcome.
Why you can't predict polling error in advance | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses how polls have underestimated Democratic and Republican support in the past and how unpredictable the direction of polling error can be.
Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years
Our second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
The importance of polls and public opinion | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich talk about the role polling can have in a democracy, from measuring issues voters consider important to providing insight into presidential elections.
What does a margin of error in polling mean? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses what you should know about the margin of error of national and state polls.
Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries
But Democratic women could expand their ranks this year after a strong showing.
Can you guess how Americans feel about Trump's platform?
Test your knowledge of what the public thinks about Trump's policies.
This could be the closest presidential election since 1876
But a normal polling error could also result in one candidate winning easily.
Why Democrats are doing better in Senate races than presidentially
The 538 team discusses what our new polling averages say in the states that will decide the Senate majority.
Will the Electoral College benefit Republicans again? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley talk about the Electoral College advantage in past elections and how it could play out in 2024.
What does early voting data reveal? | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 team discusses whether early voting data is a good indicator of who will win the 2024 presidential election.
What polling says about key 2024 Senate races
538 has released Senate polling averages for the general election.
Are Republicans still talking about abortion?
Swing-district Republicans downplayed abortion in the 2024 primaries.
How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.
How important is identity to Black voters? | 538 Politics podcast
University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss data on "linked fate" across interracial voters and voters of different political ideologies.
Can Harris win back Biden's Israel-Gaza critics?
Harris has a challenge, and an opportunity, to define her stance on the war.
How Democrats could finally win North Carolina in 2024
Our first deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
But progressive candidates still won most of the open races they ran in.
Is the gender gap growing? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how young women are more liberal and what that means for the future electorate.
Does the Taylor Swift effect include voting? | 538 Politics podcast
The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discusses how Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Kamala Harris has affected voter registration and the presidential race.
What do voters think about political violence? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik talk about the percentage of Americans open to a variety of manifestations, from protesting to more serious violence.
Make your picks on the 2024 Interactive Electoral Map
ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl explains how to make your predictions on the 2024 presidential race.
Why abortion was a bigger issue in the Harris-Trump debate | 538 Politics podcast
The 538 crew discusses how the issue of reproductive rights played a bigger role in the Harris-Trump debate compared to the previous debate with Trump and Biden.
How did the candidates perform at the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
ABC News politics reporter Brittany Shepherd shares insight into what surrogates said about the candidates' performance in the spin room after the debate.
Do Americans know Kamala Harris better after the debate? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss whether Kamala Harris was able to define herself to Americans during the debate.
What polling says about key voting groups in the 2024 election
The 538 team discusses what polling reveals about young, older and first-time voters ahead of the November election.
What does economic data reveal about the November election? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Geoffrey Skelley discuss the role economic sentiment could play in the 2024 presidential election.
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
What are the latest polls in New Jersey?
We adjust polls for house effects, mode, partisanship, voter likelihood and third parties and weight them based on their firm’s 538 pollster rating and how often it polls.
| Dates | Pollster Sponsor | 538 Pollster Rating | Result | Net result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4-Oct. 2 | No rating | Harris 56% 44% Trump | Harris +12 |
Sponsor
How has the forecast changed in New Jersey over time?
The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get new data. Uncertainty will decrease as we get closer to Election Day.
We forecast the popular vote only for candidates polling at 5 percent or higher nationally, polling at 10 percent or higher in at least one state or who are on the ballot in almost every state. Since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal, only Harris and Trump meet these criteria, so we are effectively forecasting the two-way popular vote between Democrats and Republicans.
What do the polls or fundamentals alone say?
Our forecast is based on a combination of the polls and various economic and political variables we call the “fundamentals.” This chart shows how we get from the polls today to a forecast for [state] on Election Day.
Polling average
The state of public opinion today, according only to 538’s average of polls in [state] and accounting for trends in national polls.
Adjusted polling average
The polling average for [state] adjusted for movement in similar states and the effects of party conventions.
Forecast of polling average on Election Day
The adjusted polling average with uncertainty intervals that account for potential movement in the race between now and Election Day. This does not account for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
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Fundamentals-only forecast
What our fundamentals model alone would predict the popular vote margin to be.
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Our final forecast of the popular vote, based on a weighted average of the polls and fundamentals using the weights above. This accounts for the chance that the polls systematically underestimate one candidate.
Forecast components may not exactly add up to full forecast because of rounding and random sampling. (When combining the components, we take a random sample of simulations from each, and they may not exactly match the full sample of simulations.)
How has [state] voted in the past?
The results of the last six presidential elections in [state] compared with the national popular vote.
| 20XX | Dem. | Rep. |
|---|---|---|
| ST | XX.X% | XX.X% |
| U.S. | XX.X% | XX.X% |
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